If you had $750 to spend...Cobb or Jordan

[mintacular]

Let's see, I can have a card of arguably the greatest player ever from one of the most collected sets ever that is already over 100 years old that celebrates our national pastime, or a basketball card from the 80's. Now that's a tough one for me. Get back to you.

Greatest Player Ever could apply to Jordan
Most collected sets could apply 86 Fleer Basketball
National Pastime = no longer applies to baseball
Basketball card from the 80s = not overproduced like everything else from this era

My point is that Michael Jordan is a transcendent figure and is recognized as such in our current society. Even people that hate basketball know/respect Michael Jordan as a player. Even people that don't collect cards might own or buy a Jordan rookie card just to have one....

SHOULD this card command the same $ as a T206 Cobb? Probably not, but I'm a free market capitalist and the market currently dictates both are $750 cards...

For the sake of argument, I am just trying to weigh both supply and demand in coming up with a conclusion. In the sake of supply, it is unclear just how many Jordans are out there, especially NM-MT ones. Let's assume this total # is higher (but not radically) than low grade Red Cobbs--could stronger demand for Jordan cards make this card a better investment?

[steve B]

Not the national pastime? What then? Nascar? NFL? nascar is seeing declining attendance, and the NFL is headed for an NHL style reality check. Baseball's got competition and its own problems, but nothing else has had much staying power at the top

I don't think the demand will remain high for the Jordan card. Yes, arguably the best at his sport, but also a sport that heavily markets flash over substance and tradition. Once the people that saw him play fade, it's a tossup as to where he'll fit in the overall scheme of things. Look at the other great players who aren't as high profile simple because they played earlier. Mikan, Russell, Chamberlain, Kareem, Bird, Johnson......Great players, surely the best of their eras. And in Chamberlains case also arguably the best ever. (2 straight years of nearly averaging the now impressive triple double, and averaged well above that both years of college) His rookie card is from a tougher set, but only sells for about what the Jordan does.

Perhaps Jordan as a sports figure will stand the test of time as well as Cobb has. There are similarities, both are among the very best, both in many ways symbolize their eras which are both the end of a particular segement of their respective sports history.

Steve B

Originally Posted by mintacular

Let's see, I can have a card of arguably the greatest player ever from one of the most collected sets ever that is already over 100 years old that celebrates our national pastime, or a basketball card from the 80's. Now that's a tough one for me. Get back to you.

Greatest Player Ever could apply to Jordan
Most collected sets could apply 86 Fleer Basketball
National Pastime = no longer applies to baseball
Basketball card from the 80s = not overproduced like everything else from this era

My point is that Michael Jordan is a transcendent figure and is recognized as such in our current society. Even people that hate basketball know/respect Michael Jordan as a player. Even people that don't collect cards might own or buy a Jordan rookie card just to have one....

SHOULD this card command the same $ as a T206 Cobb? Probably not, but I'm a free market capitalist and the market currently dictates both are $750 cards...

For the sake of argument, I am just trying to weigh both supply and demand in coming up with a conclusion. In the sake of supply, it is unclear just how many Jordans are out there, especially NM-MT ones. Let's assume this total # is higher (but not radically) than low grade Red Cobbs--could stronger demand for Jordan cards make this card a better investment?

[mintacular]

Well, as much as I love baseball, and while it still retains some popularity, there is not enough kinetic activity for kids to stand around patiently and wait for their turn at bat. Clearly, it's grip on the nation's heartstrings is weakened if not watered down with the emergence of other sports....

In terms of Jordan, it doesn't matter comparing him with other basketball stars. It's like people arguing Mantle is overrated, etc. The market has decided both are iconic stars...

One of the reasons that I raised this question is that two people close to me that I talk to cards about get very excited about seeing the Jordan card but little interest in Cobb....These two people are in there 30s. Think it's always worthwhile to challenge conventional wisdom. And trust me, I have few cards in my collection post 72 so I certaintly understand the instinct to buy vintage only but I'm also very depressed about the future of card collecting especially baseball and think "investment" cards will have to be a confluence of supply AND demand...

[HRBAKER]

Well by that definition I guess Nintendo is now the national pastime.

It's an interesting question for sure. I am not sure I woud expect too many 30 year olds to be that interested in Ty Cobb, not sure it says much about baseball cards or baseball. Now if the same 30 year olds had an inclination towards or a fascination with history then it may be different.

[36GoudeyMan]

There are still unopened packs and packs and packs and boxes and boxes and boxes odf 86/7 Fleer BKB out there, and an known ungodly quantity of Jordan rookies. That's just not true of truly vintage (pre-WWII, not pre-1970) high grade HOF cards from mid- to well-recognized sets. A Cobb is a Cobb is a Cobb... baseball is America's pastime, not seriousoly open to debate, and Cobb is a transcendant, iconic figure whom most of us never saw actually play (so is the stuff of myth now). And while Jordan is a transcendant figure, that's based on a career that ended only a few years ago, not 85. I can't see any post-1980 card being "worth" (for long-term potential) what a pre-war card of a key HOFer from a key, iconic set will be worth. When money flows into collectibles again, it will not be for Jeremy Shockey PSA 10 rookies, it will be for 1933 Butter Cream Ruths.

Having said that, I don't doubt that some of the boomers who have the coin flexibility WILL buy Jeremy Shockey PSA 10 rookies, not because of the colectibility, but because of the idolatry, and that will only run so far, so fast (and won't sustain a market).

[steve B]

Excellent points. Baseball does have competition for kids time, but I was thinking more of an overall lasting popularity. All of the other 3 major sports have had recent periods of wild popularity at the pro level, and all have faded a bit. 20 years from now may be a totally different story. And maybe the best card to buy with 750 would be neither the Cobb or the Jordan. Soccer and MMA cards might be the thing.

The market has Jordan as an iconic star now, but we'll have to wait and see if that lasts. He certainly has a shot at being a lasting icon. Especially being a player who bridges the workman like basketball of the 80's and the overblown showboating of the 1990s-2000's just as Cobb bridged the deadball era and the new livelier 20's. Only time will tell as he's less in the public eye. A messy crash along the lines of Rose or Bonds seems unlikely.
All the guys I compaed him to were very nearly as iconic at one time. And all have become less iconic with less publicity.

When I get a big batch of modern common cards I often try to guess stuff about the owners or figure out when the stuff was set aside. It's actually possible to guess the year pretty closely by what players aren't there. Most people save the big stars, and the players who are briefly touted as the next big thing.

I don't get worked up about the future of the hobby. Its imminent demise has been foretold several times since I started collecting. 3 sets was too many in 81, especially with the strike. The economic downturn in 87 would surely finish it off. There were too many sets with too many cards being made(91-2)The 94 strike would be the end possibly for baseball itself. The steroid problem would drive people away. And the economy ... again....
Sure, some of the dealers who were in it for the quick buck washed out at each dip. 94-96 washed out a vast number. And the hobby changed each time. But it's still going pretty good and maturing as it needs to.

Stamp collecting has been a "dying hobby" since at least 1893.....It must be doing ok, since I can't afford many of the ones I like.


Steve B

Originally Posted by mintacular

Well, as much as I love baseball, and while it still retains some popularity, there is not enough kinetic activity for kids to stand around patiently and wait for their turn at bat. Clearly, it's grip on the nation's heartstrings is weakened if not watered down with the emergence of other sports....

In terms of Jordan, it doesn't matter comparing him with other basketball stars. It's like people arguing Mantle is overrated, etc. The market has decided both are iconic stars...

One of the reasons that I raised this question is that two people close to me that I talk to cards about get very excited about seeing the Jordan card but little interest in Cobb....These two people are in there 30s. Think it's always worthwhile to challenge conventional wisdom. And trust me, I have few cards in my collection post 72 so I certaintly understand the instinct to buy vintage only but I'm also very depressed about the future of card collecting especially baseball and think "investment" cards will have to be a confluence of supply AND demand...

[pgellis]

One thing to think about is that Ty Cobb can no longer do anything to de-value his card.....he has passed away a long time ago.

Michael Jordan can still do something "stupid" to de-value his card.....just ask everyone holding O.J. Simpson RC cards!

[jb217676]

The iconic Jordan RC, relatively affordable and one of my favourite cards of all time! Do hope to get a nice Cobb one day though. My advice... get both!

[ls7plus]

PSA alone has graded well over 8,000 of the Jordans in NMt-Mt or better--6,028 "8"'s. Factor in those that the other grading services have graded, and the probable large amount of unopened, if this card appreciates over the long-term, it'll be like the proverbial slow boat to China. My bet is it goes down by at least 50% over the next 10-15 years, as we become more and more divorced from the time of his playing career. As another board member stated above, look at Chamberlain's '61-'62 Fleer--a far tougher card in any grade, and pretty much stagnant in value for the last 20 years, at least in NMt! In addition, Chamberlain has just as much or more claim to the title of the greatest ever in that sport (especially for those of us who actually saw him play in his prime)--50.4 points per game FOR THE ENTIRE '61-'62 SEASON, 100 POINTS IN A SINGLE GAME, AND A NUMBER OF GAMES WITH 30+ REBOUNDS AGAINST BILL RUSSELL! And if you want to factor in championships, Wilt won when he had the supporting cast, and Jordan played during an era when the NBA, in my opinion as a former devoted fan, was at its weakest--what great team did his Bulls ever beat? Not the Magic Johnson led Lakers in their prime; not the Larry Bird/Robert Parrish/Kevin McHale Celtics; and the "bad boy" Pistons only when they were on the down slide.

Buy the Cobb--if anything, his legacy seems to be significantly on the increase, and even if there are a lot of T206 Cobbs (and there are), they don't even begin to approach the almost ludicrous number of high-grade Jordans.

Just my 2 cents (half-dollar?).

Larry

[teetwoohsix]

Originally Posted by pgellis

One thing to think about is that Ty Cobb can no longer do anything to de-value his card.....he has passed away a long time ago.

Michael Jordan can still do something "stupid" to de-value his card.....just ask everyone holding O.J. Simpson RC cards!

+1,,,,,,,was thinking the same thing, while I was looking at these 3 Near Mint-Mint Manny Ramirez rookie cards I thought could end up being worth something a couple of decades from now (before the PED's issue)....sheesh

[FrankWakefield]

Here in Kentucky the horses are running at Keenland, and they'll next go to Churchill Downs... so some folks are starting to think of horses.

I'm still well satisfied that ballcards aren't investments. I once read a really good article about Tulipmania in the Smithsonian magazine, I'd think it was about 40 years ago. Ballcards can go up, and back down.

Two years ago a really good "investment" would have been a $2 to win ticket on Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby, with Calvin Borel in the irons. The $2 ticket paid $103.20. DanP, that's better than you did on those mutual funds of 14 years ago, but it would have been a foolhardy investment.