REA open for bidding!

[DanP]

Just placed 8 bids... just hoping to win one of them!

[RichR]

I only put one up myself so I'll cross me fingers lol

[Matt]

Incredible how many bids are in already. I saw a few items with at least 15 bids.

[jimivintage]

Originally Posted by DanP

Just placed 8 bids... just hoping to win one of them!

DAN!!! 8 bids?? Stay focused, bud....stay focused!

[DanP]

Originally Posted by jimivintage

DAN!!! 8 bids?? Stay focused, bud....stay focused!

Outbid on all but one already! Wow .... I can't believe some of the prices already.

[iwantitiwinit]

Prices on the T206's are going to be astronomical!!!!

[paul]

After the first day, the bidding slows down, right? And I can win all of the lots for just one or two increments above today's price. That's what I'll keep telling myself. Yeah, that's the ticket.

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by paul

After the first day, the bidding slows down, right? And I can win all of the lots for just one or two increments above today's price. That's what I'll keep telling myself. Yeah, that's the ticket.

Depends on what you're bidding on Paul, please send me a detailed list with your max bids included and I will let you know, thanks.

[tbob]

I've got mixed reactions: as a consignor I thought the first day's bidding was a great prelude and I hope the bidding will continue and be frenzied on the final night, but as someone who has bids in on about 15 lots and more specifically 1 large lot that I am going all out on, I shudder to think what the final outcome might be.

[Bosox Blair]

Guys, this activity on day 1 is not a surprise, is it?

The auction rules say you can only bid in overtime if you previously bid on the lot. So it just plain makes sense to put in as many bids as you can on the first day and let yourself be outbid on them all (probably by others doing the same thing). That allows you to sit back and see how bidding goes on all the lots you are interested in, and you can jump in on any of them in overtime...which is the only time that really counts. The opening bids are all many increments below market value, so nobody should expect their early bid to hold up. This has also happened the last couple years in REA.

But once the lot approaches market value, you can expect there will be almost no more bidding until overtime. I have watched this happen on many lots over the last few years of REA auctions.

I'm not saying 2011 won't be a year for high prices at REA (maybe it will). I'm just saying that day 1 activity from this auction is a useless tool for trying to predict final prices.

Cheers,
Blair

[calvindog]

No matter what happens on that first day, on that horrible Sunday morning in a month we'll all be crowded into the chatroom at 3:30 am pissing and moaning about how late it is and when will Rob shut the auction down and wasn't last year 3:45 and the year before 3:37 and blah blah blah blah. None of this ends very well for any of us.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

Guys, this activity on day 1 is not a surprise, is it?

Blair - Qualifying bids are expected. What is surprising is that people have already entered their ceiling bids on day 1. I got the 'your bid was automatically outbid' message several times yesterday. It doesn't bother me, because in the end whoever is willing to pay more will win the lot, but it is surprising.

[Rob D.]

Originally Posted by calvindog

No matter what happens on that first day, on that horrible Sunday morning in a month we'll all be crowded into the chatroom at 3:30 am pissing and moaning about how late it is and when will Rob shut the auction down and wasn't last year 3:45 and the year before 3:37 and blah blah blah blah. None of this ends very well for any of us.

On the bright side: It's the only day of the year when Net54 members outnumber Egyptian rebels in the chat room.

[Jewish-collector]

It's so simple. He who bids the most will win.

[tbob]

Originally Posted by rob d.

on the bright side: It's the only day of the year when net54 members outnumber egyptian rebels in the chat room.

lol. :d

[tbob]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

Guys, this activity on day 1 is not a surprise, is it?

I'm not saying 2011 won't be a year for high prices at REA (maybe it will). I'm just saying that day 1 activity from this auction is a useless tool for trying to predict final prices.

Cheers,
Blair

Blair- I agree but the large number of bids is an indicator that collectors want to be able to be eligible to bid on the last night and might be an indicator of late activity, I guess we'll see.
tbob

[Leon]

Originally Posted by tbob

Blair- I agree but the large number of bids is an indicator that collectors want to be able to be eligible to bid on the last night and might be an indicator of late activity, I guess we'll see.
tbob

Ya never know where bids will end up on the last night/morning. No doubt most of the first bids are marker bids and it does look like some folks put in max bids, as I was outbid on some instantly. I have had bids hold up from day one though....it just depends on the item. If it is a rare back T206 going for 1/5 of the money it should, you can count on it not holding up. If it is more niche or esoteric, it actually could. It's always interesting to see how long my bids will hold. It's sort of funny too in that if they all held up I would be looking for a second mortgage . "Non paying bidder?".....how about "Can't afford to pay- Bidder" ......Good luck to all who go for something. Of course I have my eye on a lot or two so please stay away from those. It's all those high grade cards I am after....

[Orions father]

I was a little surprised on the amounts of bids already also. I would have to agree with tbob that it is a decent indicator of a possible strong finish. If 5 to 7 people already put in a bid on an item, a day before the auction was advertised to start, I would reason that those people want to be in early to be able to go into the extended bidding. It only takes two serious bidders to make a consigner happy. Hopefully not wishful thinking.

[deadballera]

I placed bids on a few items...notified that I was the high bidder.

Within 5 minutes, was outbid on all of them. WOW !!!

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by Matt

Blair - Qualifying bids are expected. What is surprising is that people have already entered their ceiling bids on day 1. I got the 'your bid was automatically outbid' message several times yesterday. It doesn't bother me, because in the end whoever is willing to pay more will win the lot, but it is surprising.

Hi Matt,

I wonder how much of this is a "blocking" strategy. By this I mean that I would much rather go into overtime with only one or two other qualifying bidders against me than 5-7. So if I personally place a number of those preliminary "under market" bids, that blocks another person from putting in that bid as a marker bid to qualify for O/T.

Not knowing what is going on with other bidders - such as how their other bid lots are running up, how their finances are looking, how much they really want the lot etc. - I'd rather face fewer competitors, despite the fact that I know it only takes one other to run up the price.

(Barry S. and I debated the usefulness of this kind of strategy last year...he doubts it makes a difference, but I feel it might.)

Cheers,
Blair

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by Leon

It's sort of funny too in that if they all held up I would be looking for a second mortgage

I'd say you are not alone, sir!

Cheers,
Blair

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by tbob

Blair- I agree but the large number of bids is an indicator that collectors want to be able to be eligible to bid on the last night and might be an indicator of late activity, I guess we'll see.
tbob

Hi Bob,

Definitely if I was Rob L. or a consignor, I'd be encouraged to see big bidding activity from the start.

Cheers,
Blair

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Bosox Blair

Hi Matt,

I wonder how much of this is a "blocking" strategy. By this I mean that I would much rather go into overtime with only one or two other qualifying bidders against me than 5-7. So if I personally place a number of those preliminary "under market" bids, that blocks another person from putting in that bid as a marker bid to qualify for O/T.

Not knowing what is going on with other bidders - such as how their other bid lots are running up, how their finances are looking, how much they really want the lot etc. - I'd rather face fewer competitors, despite the fact that I know it only takes one other to run up the price.

(Barry S. and I debated the usefulness of this kind of strategy last year...he doubts it makes a difference, but I feel it might.)

Cheers,
Blair

There are lots of strategies to bidding. I know from running our own auctions that a lot, if not most, of the first day bids are markers. The only time they wouldn't be, and here is the real strategy, is if someone got one of the first bids in and made it a straight bid to their max...in other words, say there is a $2000 card you really want and it's starting at $200. There are no bids yet and you do a straight bid, before any others, and put it at $1800 (w/o BP). That would be a strategy to block others and one that I have used infrequently, but have definitely used. That locks out other bidders from getting in later unless they want to go above your max. I remember many years ago, and I have told this story before, I called Lew on the first day of his auction. He had the E94 overprints x 8 as one lot. There might have been one bid but I don't think there were any. I asked him if I could raise the bid to anything I wanted. He said yes as long as it was above the next increment. I said, ok. The lot was at either $1000 or $1100...... I said take it to $8000. He thought I was crazy because at the time the overprints hadn't taken off. The bid held from that 1st day until the end and I won them for that amount, plus BP. I locked everyone else out with that strategy unless they wanted to jump me which would have been crazy at the time given what the cards were going for. regards

[ethicsprof]

my chief strategy is to wait until the catalogue arrives.
it's tough on me but gives me incredibly focused inner strength.

best,
barry

[M's_Fan]

It is true that most of the action happens in extended bidding, but very often cards get run up in value early in the auction. This is often the case with lower value cards but also happens at all levels, because the bid increments in the REA auction are far apart in my opinion (which are widened even further by the 17.5% buyer's premium).

So I often find myself putting in a max bid even before extended bidding, simply because there is really only one slot that approximates a card's fair market value based on recent sales, so I am forced to jump in and take that slot before someone else does. Then if someone wants to overpay I let them and move on.

[barrysloate]

Every lot has someone who is willing to pay more than everyone else. If he goes after the lot aggressively, and has a lot of money to spend, I don't know of any strategy that is going to pry that lot away. You can try bidding really high the first day, but I'll guess that's a 50-50 shot at best. Bottom line is if somebody wants the lot more badly than you do I don't think there's a bidding strategy that will change the final result.

[Cat]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Every lot has someone who is willing to pay more than everyone else. If he goes after the lot aggressively, and has a lot of money to spend, I don't know of any strategy that is going to pry that lot away. You can try bidding really high the first day, but I'll guess that's a 50-50 shot at best. Bottom line is if somebody wants the lot more badly than you do I don't think there's a bidding strategy that will change the final result.

Well said. I have personally employed different bidding "strategies" but they were more designed to provide me some entertainment than they were to provide a better mechanism to win a lot.

Most of the time I just get bored and put more bids in - no rhyme or reason.

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by calvindog

No matter what happens on that first day, on that horrible Sunday morning in a month we'll all be crowded into the chatroom at 3:30 am pissing and moaning about how late it is and when will Rob shut the auction down and wasn't last year 3:45 and the year before 3:37 and blah blah blah blah. None of this ends very well for any of us.

agreed... can't wait!

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Every lot has someone who is willing to pay more than everyone else. If he goes after the lot aggressively, and has a lot of money to spend, I don't know of any strategy that is going to pry that lot away. You can try bidding really high the first day, but I'll guess that's a 50-50 shot at best. Bottom line is if somebody wants the lot more badly than you do I don't think there's a bidding strategy that will change the final result.

Barry,

I agree that your comments fit perfectly in a scenario where "whales" are chasing a rare or even scarce item.

However, the vast majority of lots in REA (and in other auctions I participate in) don't fit that. Many of the cards in these lots come up for auction frequently and final prices fall within a pretty well-established range. From what I've seen, most bidders hold up at around the "going" price on lots like this. I'd be very surprised to see a T-206 Cobb in PSA 4 go beyond prior recorded sales. Nobody wants to pay a record price for a card like this that is for sale every month. Sometimes a card like this can be had for a bit less than prior sales...and I think it helps to have fewer competitors who could jump in on a card like this at the eleventh hour.

Also, I'm not sure a card always goes to "someone who is willing to pay more than everyone else". This seems impossible, so let me explain. I'm thinking of two very specific scenarios.

First, I have often browsed auctions in overtime and saw lots where the top bid seemed to be a bargain. I would be happy to up the bid at least one increment (maybe more). Unfortunately, I had not bid on that lot in regular time, so I could not. That top bid then won the day. Was the winner willing to pay more than everyone else? Quite possibly not, because I would have gone higher (we'll never know if he also would have gone higher). But the competition on the lot was narrowed by the rules of the auction and/or bidding strategy.

Second, most savvy buyers know what cards sell for (VCP, etc.). And on frequently sold cards, there is a pretty tight range. If I'm bidding on such a lot in REA and I know the "going" price is $2400, I'll probably only bid up to the $2000 increment (that makes $2350 with the BP). The next bidder has to decide if he wants to pay $2644 for that card - that is the next increment. The difference is almost $300...over 10% of the value of the lot. Maybe this seems like small potatoes to some, but my experience - even in REA - is that most bidders won't do this. Now maybe this guy would have been happy to pay $2400 or even $2450, but he does not have that choice...he has to pay $2644 or let it go. So bidding strategy will help you get a lot like this.

These are not just abstract thoughts - these are my experiences bidding at REA and elsewhere.

Cheers,
Blair

[barrysloate]

Blair- there are some variables, and of course not getting in a qualifying bid on a lot you gladly would have topped can be frustrating. I guess the best strategy might be to get qualifiers in early on virtually every lot you would have even a remote interest in. In an REA auction that would require a lot of work.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I guess the best strategy might be to get qualifiers in early on virtually every lot you would have even a remote interest in. In an REA auction that would require a lot of work.

Agreed on both counts .

Cheers,
Blair

[Shoeless Moe]

Just placed bids on 10 different items, I only could afford one, but have little doubt I'll be outbid on all 10, but fun to dream.

Oddly I'm the current leader on all 10 items, so doesn't look like peep are putting in Max bids.

[Shoeless Moe]

1 down 9 to go. Anyone think I'll make it thru the day?

Email rec'd moments ago.....8:34am central

"Dear paul,

One of the bids that you have placed at http://bid.robertedwardauctions.com
has been outbid by a fellow member. Here is the information pertaining to the lot you bid on:

1934 New York Yankees Team-Signed Ball with Ruth, Gehrig, Grimes, and Six Other Hall of Famers!
Lot number: 1060
New high bid: $2,250.00"

[asphaltman]

I planned on being at the computer the day bidding opened and scurrying through about 20 different lots putting in low bids. I was caught off guard and didn't realize it was opening on Wednesday. So I've been playing catch up....not exactly brave enough to just bid on all 20....I'm up to about 12 or 15 of the original 20 I had in mind...I think I have 3 or 4 i'm still the high bidder on...so as I get outbid on one, I find another of the original items to then place a bid.

[E93]

Originally Posted by asphaltman

I planned on being at the computer the day bidding opened and scurrying through about 20 different lots putting in low bids. I was caught off guard and didn't realize it was opening on Wednesday. So I've been playing catch up....not exactly brave enough to just bid on all 20....I'm up to about 12 or 15 of the original 20 I had in mind...I think I have 3 or 4 i'm still the high bidder on...so as I get outbid on one, I find another of the original items to then place a bid.

The same thing happened to me. I did not realize it had opened until around 11pm that night which limited my range of possible entry bids. Who knows how that will affect the outcomes of my bidding. I wish it would just open when it is advertised to open since opening bids are a big part of strategizing in this format.
JimB