Better Investment: '51 Bowman Mantle or '52 Topps Mantle?

[ls7plus]

$2,000+ can be better invested elsewhere, especially in far more rare, significant pre-WWII cards. As of this date, PSA had graded a total of 1,261 '51 Mantles, with 129 3's, and 855 in higher grades. It had also graded a total of 1,014 '52 Mantles, with 142 1's and 823 in higher grades. My research indicates that the '51 Bowman in that grade hasn't even doubled in the last 15 years (it looks like it might have earned around 4.5% compounded annually, maybe; while the '52 may have earned 5-6%). While these figures aren't bad compared to a savings account, etc., there are a lot of pre-war cards that have done much, much better, and will probably continue to do so.

If you want either card because its an iconic Mantle, and connects you to him and takes you back to his earliest days with the Yankees, buy it to enjoy it--that's the heart of the hobby--but there are far, far better investments to be made. See if you can find a 1923-1924 Exhibit Ruth even in low grade; a '58 Kahn's Clemente, a card PSA had graded just 4 of at last look; a 1931-32 Exhibit Ruth from the movie stars set, a wonderful portrait, which the Standard Catalog terms the rarest Exhibit Ruth (I believe Rob Lifson is on record as stating there are probably less than 10 in existence, and PSA has graded just 3. Exhibitman states the '23-'24 Exhibit Ruth is even tougher, and he would know); 1907 Wolverine News Cobb; or either 1907 Dietsche Cobb rookies ( with batting and fielding poses. PSA has graded < 22 1907Batting pose Cobbs in all grades total, with that number being up just 5 in the last three years or so, and just 5 of the Fielding pose Cobbs, each of which are true rookies). Exhibit Gehrigs from the '20's are also quite scarce to downright rare, with a lot more upside than a lower grade Mick. I say this despite being one of the Mick's greatest fans. If you really want a Mantle with a lot of potential, try to find a '55 Postcard Back Exhibit, bearing the legend "Made in USA" at the bottom right. It appears to be an extremely rare card at this point, and that legend indicates it was orignally printed in his rookie era, '51-'53, then reissued in 1955. PSA has graded just 8 '55 Exhibit Postcard Backs total to date, and no Mantles. Other Mantles with seemingly more potential from an investment standpoint include the '53-'55 Dormand, bat on shoulder pose in NMt (a truly beautiful card, with literally only a handful in ex-mt or better), or the '59 Bazooka graded at least PSA 6 (not hand-cut inside the dotted lines, which yields a grade of authentic).

Past performance is not guarantee of future performance, however, and you personally have to use your own best judgment.

Best of luck in your investing,

Larry

[scmavl]

Larry,
Thanks for your insight, it really gave me something to think about. I wanted a Mantle to both enjoy and to hopefully have as an appreciating investment. I wouldn't be interested in a Cobb simply because I'm not a fan of the man himself. Do you think most mid-grade or better Ruths will continue to appreciate?

[ls7plus]

Jarrod, in my humble opinion, based on a 20+ year study of both the card market and coins, appreciation is directly related to three factors: (1) rarity, or scarcity; (2) condition--get the best you can find or afford (although I'm awfully leery of pre-sixties ultra-grade condition rarities--who know how far ahead of the graders the card doctors are at any given moment?); and (3) significance. Follow auctions; follow e-bay; check pop reports (as just a guide only), talk especially to members of the pre-war section of this board, as you've got some of the most knowledgable collectors and dealers right here (for Exhibits, which I personally like and consider to be "high-end" with regard to the photograph reproduction of the images, check with Adam, the Exhibitman--he really knows this stuff).

I collect primarily pre-war stars and hall-of-famers, after starting out with '50's and '60's cards around 1990. One thing that will become very apparent after some interaction with the pre-war set collectors is that they know the most about how tough it is to find any given card in a set, with the type collectors coming in second, and guys like me coming in quite a bit behind.

Are there too many '33 mid-grade Goudey Ruths to appreciate in value quite nicely? My personal opinion is yes; others may feel differently. But there will never be too many '23-'24 Exhibit Ruths to do quite nicely in the long-term, or quite obviously, some of the other Exhibits (I believe Adam states that the 1926 Exhibit Ruth is very, very tough also), and feel these are just coming into their own. Their are quite a few more of the '21 Exhibits, but this is truly a classic Ruth card, embodying what was really Ruth's best all-around year (off the top of my head, 44 doubles, 16 triples, 59 HR's and a .376 average) and the year of the Yankee's first pennant. Don't get stuck in a box, thinking only Goudey. The most valuable Ruths are mere regionals--the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth minor league schedule card (since only about 11 are known, however, they've gotten a little out of my price range. The first sale I know of was for $6,000 in the '89 Copeland auction; now try to find one for less than a cool $200K!).

Which reminds me--I could have gotten a NMt-Mt M101 Ruth rookie in the early '90's (many of which are actually regionals) for only $7,000 (there we go:relatively rare and significant, and in high grade)--problem was, only had $5,000 to spend. Now, almost 20 years later, after a PSA 8 has sold for $140,000, the wife says she would have given me the additional two grand, since it was Babe Ruth--yeah, right! $140,000 she likes; Babe Ruth not so much!

Think a little outside the box, and remember, collectors like things rare!

Just my two cents (or 50 or 60!).

Best wishes always on your collecting,

Larry

[bbcard1]

Did you consider a high grade 52....Bowman as an alternative? Beautiful card and might be a good option considering the $ you are looking to spend.

[scmavl]

Originally Posted by bbcard1

Did you consider a high grade 52....Bowman as an alternative? Beautiful card and might be a good option considering the $ you are looking to spend.

That's a good idea, however I just really don't like the look of the card nearly as much as the other two. If I'm dropping this much on a card, it has to be special to me and the '52 Bowman just is not. Thanks again for the suggestion though!

[KCRfan1]

This was kind of fun reading thru. I believe we know what the better investment turned out to be.

[g_vezina_c55]

Lol yes fun too read