For those who fear the demise of the collectibles market may be near...

[ls7plus]

Ah, but the market, in my opinion, really only started to mature after the crash of the new card rookie market in the early 90's, and only after people began to find out that there was a lot more of the '50's material out there than many originally thought. Rember when so many touted the '54 Bowman Ted Williams as being rare, because it had been pulled from production due to a contract dispute between Topps and Bowman? We've now learned that it might qualify as somewhat scarce, but not truly rare at all. Only after that phase did the card market really start to mature, with the focus shifting to truly rare, significant material, which in most instances meant pre-war items.

I believe you'll see quite a number of million dollar cards in our lifetime, including many of the Wagner's that are out there, quite possibly all of the 1914 Baltimore News Ruths (barring the finding of a significant hoard of them),
M101 Ruths in true NmMt, possibly the "T206" Cobb with Ty Cobb Tobacco back and some of the rarest of the rare cards of the highest echelon hall-of-famers in the best possible condition. The two or three Gem Mint 10
'52 Mantles are probably already there, if one was to change hands. I would include key cards from the Goudey, Cracker Jack or T206 sets graded 9' or 10's, or even a '54 Wilson's Franks Williams in such a lofty grade, but only with the caveat that it is not discovered later on that some of these cards are really restored cards that have been getting by the graders. And with regard to the latter, I don't know if that is the case or not, but would be concerned about it if I had the funds to be buying such cards now.

Somewhat less spectacular cards won't be left out in the cold, though. I think scarce to rare examples of a less prominent character will also appreciate quite nicely, though not to those levels. I do think, though, that we'll be surprised at the number of $100,000 + cards out there 20-30 years from now.

So, respectfully, Barry, I disagree with you. I think cards now are where coins were in the '60's or early '70's (coin collecting did have about a 120-year head start on us as an organized hobby, yet it took a long time for the really valuable coins to achieve those lofty price tags). Cards, however, are catching up fast, with the rarest and most significant appreciating faster in value than comparable coins did, probably due to the fact that a lot of coin people have gone into the card hobby (David Hall, after all, started out with his grading services in coins around 1986, and not with PSA in cards). I remember when a rag of a Wagner was around $50,000 in the mid-nineties. You can multiply that by five now, and that train ain't nowhere near the station!

Coins went through the same sort of boom and bust cycle that the new rookie market did in the sixties, when many investors came into the field, hungry to buy bright shiney items in very high grade, which were actually quite common. Mint rolls of 1950-D nickels went from $100 or so to a high of $1200, before crashing back down to their present value of about $300/roll. Same with high mint grade Morgan silver dollars, many of which existed in the hundreds of thousands, but unknowlegable investors considered to be quite scarce or even rare simply because of their age. Yet the truly rare, significant coins weren't subject to that boom and crash cycle--they just went along their merry way, appreciating at about 12% or so compounded annually, meaning that their value would double every six years, which adds up quite nicely over time.

All of which is not to say that the '33 Goudey Babe Ruth in PSA 4, for sake of example, will rise to such lofty levels, nor will a T206 Cobb in a similar grade. There are just too many of those cards out there for that to happen. But look at something like the Baltimore News Ruth. Lifson estimates that there are 11 or so in existence. For now, let's assume that's true. If there are 1100 collectors out there in the hunt for one, and they are all available for sale, the ratio of buyers to cards is 100:1. But if 7 of those cards find permanent homes in private collections, the ratio shifts dramatically to 1093:4, or
273:1. Let two more of the remaining four find a similar happy, long-term residence,and the ratio shifts explosively to 1091:2, or 545:1. The value of those still available will reflect that in their price, and my example doesn't even reflect the fact that such a dramatic increase will not be lost on the collecting public, adding even more collectors to the hunt. If a thousand new collectors are then attracted to the card who have the means to procure one, our ratio shifts to 2,091:2, or 1,045:1! All of which is basically Econ 101, simply the supply and demand equation illustrated in a dynamic example. But that's also how the cream of the crop rises so swiftly to the top!

Because I believe we are far closer to the beginning than the end, insofar as card values are concerned, the opportunity is here and now, if you're concerned about value appreciation. Just educate yourselves with regard to what's out there, and our cumulative knowlege here is an invaluable asset in that respect. And if you're not concerned about the investment aspects, or if its only part of the attraction, as it is for me, we still have the very history of the game we can hold right in our hands! And how very priceless is that?

Those of you that have had the patience to read through these two long-winded posts of mine can paste a gold star on your foreheads!

Happy collecting, guys!

Larry

[Leon]

Larry- thanks for your well thought out posts. I happen to agree with you on almost everything you said. I guess I am biased though as I have been focused on collecting the scarce and unusual since day one of my adult collecting. best regards

[barrysloate]

Larry- we may be talking about two different things. I agree that the very rarest and most expensive cards will continue to increase in value. But I think the more commonly traded cards, the ones set builders and type collectors buy on a regular basis, won't see the dramatic increases. The guy piecing together a T206 set one card at a time is not travelling in the same circles as the guy buying a Baltimore News Ruth. Those are two different markets as far as I'm concerned.

[ls7plus]

Barry, I agree with you completely with regard to the more commonly traded cards, meaning those that exist in sufficient quantities to be commonly traded. The very quantity of them that exist precludes them from rapid price increases--its like an anchor weight tethered to their ankles. But by the same token, their ready availability and affordability is a big plus to those of us that feel that the card connects us to the player, and takes us back to the time and even the events that were occurring in the sport when the card was issued (I bought a 1922 W573 Sisler, not because it's at least moderately tough, but because it was his .420 season, just before the sinus infection affected his vision. We used to play stratomatic baseball in the early '70's using the all-time hall-of-famer set that the company issued, along with other cards of star players from stratomatic seasons past, and I can tell you that Sisler, with that card, rivaled Gehrig and his 1927 card for #1 firstbaseman status in the drafts we held to pick teams. After several years of playing that game, it became quite apparent just how great a player Sisler was, before his vision declined).

But I also think that there are a lot of rare, somewhat esoteric cards that are undervalued, which will increase pretty dramatically in price. In that respect, my thought is that someone like Leon, with many of the cards he has (with the proof strip including Matty coming immediately to mind), is on the right track. A fellow by the name of John J. Pittman took precisely that approach in collecting esoteric, rare, undervalued coins in the '40's and '50's through the early '90's. Pittman wasn't wealthy, but probably wasn't poor either--he was a chemical engineer at Eastman Kodak. He reportedly spent about a hundred thousand dollars pursuing just such material during that time, focusing on rarity and quality, but not going after the major rarities (he most likely couldn't afford them--I believe both the 1894-S dime and the 1913 Liberty Head nickel, two true trophy coins, were both worth about $3000-$4000 in the forties, which, when factoring in the consumer price index and inflation, would be the equivalent of $25,000-$30,000 in today's dollars). Pittman somehow got his wife to consent to taking out a mortgage on their home so that he could attend and participate in the auction of King Farouk's collection in Egypt after he was deposed around 1954 (one heckuva wife, huh?). Anyway, after Pittman died in the '90's, his collection was auctioned off and brought in excess of $25 million.

My thought is that cards like the 1923-1924 Exhibit Babe Ruth and the 1907 Wolverine News Cobb rookie are the kinds of things Pittman would be seeking out were he alive today, and into cards rather than coins (I recently saw the Cobb offered on e-bay, graded SGC poor due to a crease running across the middle of the card, and right across Cobb's face, offered for $3,000. I thought no way that card in that grade with that crease is going to sell for that, but it did, just before I was about to make the seller a significantly lower offer, which prompted me to jump on the 1907 Dietsche Cobb Fielding Pose Tony Arnold was offering in PSA 5. The latter card has some chips around the edges, and probably not the best eye appeal for a five, but it does have four square corners, no creases, and makes for a very nice matched pair with the batting pose Cobb I acquired from the same set several years ago).

Thanks, Leon, for your comment. It means a lot coming from you, with your collection!

Best wishes to all you guys, and may we all prosper in our collecting endeavors.

Larry

[Exhibitman]

There is a balance between rarity and price that favors cards that are rare but not too rare. I'd suggest that a steady trickle of material into the marketplace boosts collector interest, whereas owning a 1 of 1 card does not do as well. A card has to be offered for sale often enough to whet the appetites of collectors, yet not so often as to be perceived as commonly offered. Absent enough copies of a card in circulation to inspire people to pay attention, the card will become an obscurity, interesting but not as highly regarded as a more readily located 'rare' card. The T206 Wagner is a great example: there are quite a few of them relatively speaking--especially as compared to many other rare cards--yet the prices keep rising as the supply expands. The excitement builds the desire, which builds the price for the next one, which fuels further desire. Wagner is by no means the only example. As noted above, though, as stuff comes out of the woodworks, some cards are re-evaluated and decline in value or do not appreciate as much relative to others.

[ls7plus]

I generally agree with you, Exhibitman. What my so-called "dynamic illustration" of Econ 101 supply and demand should have included to complete the "dynamic flux" was that even in the case of the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth, assuming it is as rare as generally believed in current auction literature, as prices rise, some of the secreted away examples have or will find their way back onto the market. Either the dollar-value increase is just too tempting not to take advantage of, the attraction wears off, or financial need comes into play to bring about a sale. Or, as is happening quite a bit lately in the area of major rarity/trophy coins, the big bucks buyer is content to simply have owned an example for a time, creating a permanent niche for himself in the trophy coin's legacy. That very thing has been happening with regard to the PSA 8 Wagner--it's changed hands quite often since Gretsky and McNall bought it in '91 for such a desireable piece (ignoring for the moment its somewhat questionable origin).

There is a caveat, though, I believe with regard to the very true generalization that 1 of 1's do not do as well as cards that are rare, but not so rare that a trickle of them can't come out to build a steady market. And that is the factor of significance. What if a true 1 of 1 proof or salesman's sample were to be discovered of the Wagner, or of the Baltimore News Ruth, the M101 Ruth major league rookie, or even the '52 Topps Mantle? The '39 Playball Williams? '25 Exhibits Gehrig? What price might the occasionally bantered about 1905 team card featuring Cobb on this forum bring? Is it one of one? I personally have never seen another, but probably have less observation time in than several others on this board. In a major auction, I believe it would do quite well. I'd certainly be bidding, at least for awhile, and I suspect that more than a few other members would be also. What if there were just one of the "T206" Ty Cobb's with Ty Cobb tobacco backs, instead of possibly 10-15? The lone example of the 1921 Tip Top Bread Lefty Grove minor league card that is known to exist brought approximately $30,000 in a Huggins and Scott auction about a year or so ago.

Interesting food for thought. It is always a pleasure to engage in a bit of mental jousting with someone as knowledgable as Exhibitman, Leon or many other members of this forum!

Best wishes to all of you gentlemen who make this site such a valuable source of information.

Larry

[ls7plus]

And Exhibitman is oh so right on with regard to his statement about the decline in value when previously unknown hoards of examples come out of the woodwork! I bought a 1953-1955 Dormand Postcards Gil Hodges at a mid-nineties Pittsburgh show in NMt condition for $400. At that time, hobby consensus seemed to be that only about 3 dozen existed. It was and is a beautiful card, and I believed the rarity and the fact that I liked Gil Hodges justified the price. Then, about 12 years later, about 1000-1200 were found, said to represent a supply that Hodges was supposed to have but never did pick up. The last one I saw offered was in better condition than mine--I think Kit Young had it at the 2009 National--and had a price tag of $75.00! Maybe if I live for another 30 years, that card will be worth what I paid for it.

Larry