JSA Story on Autographalert.com

[barrysloate]

David- Ideally, every autograph collector should study the field in detail and become his own expert in determining authenticity. But in the collecting world not everybody wants to do this. Some prefer to pay an expert a fee to authenticate for them. That's why, for example, people hire a broker to sell their home rather than do it themselves; they don't want to have to deal with all the legal hurdles and want the professional to take care of it for them.

But if it turns out that the experts are not so good at what they do, it's going to drive many collectors out of the hobby. That's just the nature of the beast.

[sphere and ash]

The article is not just pointing out authentication errors--no one expects 100% accuracy--but the ONE-SIDEDNESS of one authenticator's errors. Every authenticator has an error rate, and if you are really conducting analyses these errors should be randomly distributed. The whole point of the article is that the errors here are not randomly distributed, but distorted by bias (everything from one source is good, everything from another source is bad).

I would bet you will find similar biases in card grading. I have never seen a grading population report, but I would bet it does not fit a normal (i.e., bell curve) distribution. My hunch is that large, favored customers cause grade inflation at the highest grades.

The question for anyone buying anything (and particularly autographs, because the rate of fraud is higher) is this: can you survive your mistakes?

[gnaz01]

Originally Posted by sphere and ash

I would bet you will find similar biases in card grading. I have never seen a grading population report, but I would bet it does not fit a normal (i.e., bell curve) distribution. My hunch is that large, favored customers cause grade inflation at the highest grades.

No truer statement could be made, imo. I bet if I went to get the Gretzky/McNall T206 Wagner graded it would come back without a number

[tinkereversandme]

Well put Dan and Barry! It's no different than any field -housing, medical, insurance, our leaders and the political system- and we come to depend on the expertise of those who went through the channels (and don't these guys just compare signatures for a living?) and if we find out that they are anything but experts, that's when the issues start and opinions begin.

AA tested Spence and Spence failed and showed how ignorant his outfit really is. Did AA test PSA/DNA and if AA did, did they pass and this wasn't mentioned? And if JSA and PSA/DNA went down, would there be another company courageous enough to be experts and what would become of all these items in collections with their certificates if judged a second time to be suspect? This is all a shame and yet another black eye for the hobby and you can count me as a former collector as well.

Regards,

Larry

[David Atkatz]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

But if it turns out that the experts are not so good at what they do, it's going to drive many collectors out of the hobby. That's just the nature of the beast.

Barry, when I was a young child, and would complain about what my mother served for dinner, she would say in her droll Jewish sarcastic way, "Good. More for me." She wasn't going to fight with me--this is dinner. Take it or leave it.

I feel the same way about the "collectors" you speak of. If they're not willing to educate themselves, it's fine with me if they find something else to acquire--and I mean acquire rather than collect.

Fewer people to fight with come auction time.

Of course, I'm a collector, and not a dealer ;-)

[barrysloate]

There are plenty of collectors who don't educate themselves. This is a hobby known for impulsive buying.

[Exhibitman]

It is unrealistic to suggest that there is no place for third party experts in a collecting field. If everyone had to be an expert before starting a collection there'd be about 10 collectors in the world because the vast majority of people simply would not devote the time and resources to learning in advance of buying that first item. As is the case with many things in life, many people do not have the time to become expert-level at autographs but still would like to own an item signed by a childhood hero or other meaningful figure, so there is a place for an authenticator in the collecting world.

There is no way that an authenticator will get it right every time--no human ever does. What I take away from the article as the troubling conclusion--if true--is that JSA did not fairly analyze the items in question.

As for false negatives and false positives, I am more comfortable with an expert who says he can't tell from time to time because autographs ain't manufactured items--they vary widely depending on the situation. I've shown these before but it bears repeating here: I got the first of these Lewis autographs in person, a friend got the second one at a different event:





I seriously doubt that an authenticator could deem them both genuine but they are.

[RichardSimon]

It is not necessary to become an expert in the field you are collecting.
Gaining some knowledge is certainly extremely important but if you find people to buy from that are totally trustworthy that would be your most important step if you don't make yourself into an expert.
To me that is the key. I have worked very hard to maintain a good reputation in this business and many of my customers have come to me because of a recommendation from a friend.
Find good dealers to buy from, guys who have done the hard work already, and you will be ok.
Those guys are out there, just ask some collecting friends for recommendations. Believe me, there are a number of dealers out there that you can buy from and not have to give your money to 3rd party authenticators after your purchase.

[drc]

I agree. Knowing who you are buying from is a key. There are many knowledgeable and honest sellers out there. Besides, being able to show you bought the item from a well known and reputable seller will only help the resale value.

[thetruthisoutthere]

One guy I would love to hear from is Mike Baker. He signed off (literally) on thousands of pieces of Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams, Willie Mays and others when he was a "authenticator (I use that term loosely)" for the now defunct GAI. That garbage has helped to dilute the hobby and bring values on legitimate autographed memorabilia way down. Compounding the problem is that the now defunct GAI is still listed as a Ebay prequalified authenticator. They (GAI) should be dropped from Ebay's list of prequalified authenticators immediately. Those who know absolutely nothing about autographs "depend" on the fact that Ebay lists them as a prequalified authenticator and then there are others (those who know the GAI garbage is bad) who take advantage of the fact that GAI is a Ebay prequalified authenticator. The problem, of course, is that (in my humble opinion) 80% of those who buy and sell autographs on Ebay don't have a clue. And that's where the knowledge of autographs helps. It helps to be able to trust certain people but always be cautious. We know that stuff is bad and we stay away from it, but the rest of the population relies on the fact that Ebay lists them as "someone to trust when it comes to autographs." I don't see the big deal in removing the now defunct GAI from that list. Or at the very least, ban the GAI certs with Mike Baker's name. The biggest problem that I see is that those people who should be reading this thread have no idea of its existence. I'd love to hear from you, Mr. Baker. Below is one of the thousands that you certed. Please, Mr. Baker, show is what exemplars you used to cert the below autographs.

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