What pre war issue has taken the biggest price plunge over the past 12-18 months?

[Exhibitman]

It's the economy IMHO because the effects are too widespread to be the result of a few collectors or 'investors' bailing out.

--People who lost their jobs obviously are out.

--People whose businesses took a hit aren't buying.

--People who may not have taken any direct hits still are panicky and holding on to their wallets.

--Dealers who are undercapitalized are liquidating inventory to raise cash.

I don't think the loss of a few collectors with megabucks would act as a downdraft on the rest of the market, any more than the death of a big collector or two affect the entire card market. It's the middle class buyers who are missing.

And I'd not underestimate the side effects of VCP: many buyers won't pay more than the last sale price as reported in VCP and usually offer slightly less for Ebay BINS, which acts as a deflationary pressure on prices.

FWIW, my research on boxing card prices for the next ed. of my book shows that the market for those cards bottomed out last fall and has shown small gains since then.

[bbcard1]

I stand by what I have always said. My baseball cards are my wife's problem as she has to decide what to do with them when I'm gone.

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

It's the economy IMHO because the effects are too widespread to be the result of a few collectors or 'investors' bailing out.

--People who lost their jobs obviously are out.

--People whose businesses took a hit aren't buying.

--People who may not have taken any direct hits still are panicky and holding on to their wallets.

--Dealers who are undercapitalized are liquidating inventory to raise cash.

I don't think the loss of a few collectors with megabucks would act as a downdraft on the rest of the market, any more than the death of a big collector or two affect the entire card market. It's the middle class buyers who are missing.

And I'd not underestimate the side effects of VCP: many buyers won't pay more than the last sale price as reported in VCP and usually offer slightly less for Ebay BINS, which acts as a deflationary pressure on prices.

FWIW, my research on boxing card prices for the next ed. of my book shows that the market for those cards bottomed out last fall and has shown small gains since then.

Good analysis.

[Fred]

Good points Adam, our thoughts are "in the same corner".

I try to keep things in perspective. I'm not buying this stuff as an investment. I buy this stuff because I enjoy it. Honestly, I'm really enjoying watching the prices drop because it makes it the "habit" more affordable.

If the card market followed the DJIA then the cards would be going up in price rather than receding. I would have to guess that, overall, all of the collectibles markets are taking a hit.

[vintagecpa]

That is an interesting statement about VCP. It makes a ton of sense. It is a case of almost too much info.

[barrysloate]

There is also this mentality now that you shouldn't buy anything unless you can negotiate a really great price for it. There is so much lowballing going on everywhere, be it baseball cards, real estate, anything. It just becomes a mindset.