Condition, Condition, Rarity, Rarity

[Exhibitman]

I figure that the money I spend on cards is in lieu of golfing or other diversions, so as long as I don't need to have the cash flow, I won't sell off stuff at a loss. I'd rather just have the cards to enjoy.

[sportscardpete]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I figure that the money I spend on cards is in lieu of golfing or other diversions, so as long as I don't need to have the cash flow, I won't sell off stuff at a loss. I'd rather just have the cards to enjoy.

To be honest, if I was a collector, I would be excited to have a time come like this where the market is fairly cheap. Investors are probably hating the market, but that comes with the risks in buying with the intent of flipping. If you're in it for the hobby, price fluctuations should not matter (well, should not matter much). I've picked up quite a few cards in recent weeks that I never thought I would be able to afford when prices were skyrocketing. I used to have a budget that wouldn't get me anything nicer than an e93 HOF graded psa 1. Now, I picked up an e93 Plank PSA 3 for $475, a price that probably would have went for double in 2007.

Investors and dealers should be making their purchases now, and than sell it off when the market recovers (maybe in a year or three). However, they got greedy in scooping up cards at all-time highs and are now holding on to cards that will most certainly be marked down. There is simply not enough free cash for these dealers, and that is why prices aren't really recovering. They can't really buy anything, since they will have to cover their markdowns.

For collectors that have some free cash flow, it is a perfect time to add to a collection. Just sit back, relax, and enjoy the cards. In a few years, they are bound to go up. And even if they don't, people have to remember it is a hobby. Not an investments portfolio.

Take care,

Pete

[M's_Fan]

I'm going to disagree with the central premise of the original post: That "truly rare" and "ultra high grade" cards haven't declined in value.

This is not the case. I've seen everything go down, rare stuff of Shoeless Joe, Plank, etc., you name it, you can likely find an example of price depreciation in recent months/years.

The high-end art market took a big dive in this recession, and high-end baseball collectibles are not some magic category that is recession-proof.

The simple fact is there are a lot less wealthy people out there than there used to be, and bidding competition isn't what it used to be.