Condition, Condition, Rarity, Rarity

[barrysloate]

Bruce- I pretty much agree with all of your points. The very rarest material will continue to attract the wealthiest collectors, while the more available cards and memorabilia will remain soft for the foreseeable future. In a sense, there will be two hobbies- one for the rich, another for everyone else. I don't want to get too political, but that's the American landscape in the 21st century- a very small percentage of the population controls most of the wealth. So it would stand to reason they will be the ones fighting for the best material.

[Peter_Spaeth]

From my perspective, as a buyer of what Barry calls more available cards, what has happened is that many of the usual sources of such cards simply are not willing to sell them for anything close to reasonable prices, so as a result the cards are less available. I have struggled to find cards that in other times I could have quickly acquired, because I can't find them.

[barrysloate]

Peter- I think the majority of dealers are upside down on much of their inventory, and in order for them to offer cards at current levels they would be forced to take a loss. Many are not willing to do that, which is understandable.

[steve B]

The willingness to take a loss and the need to take a loss is what killed much modern stuff. Why pay full price when it will all be sold below cost in ayear or two at the latest?

But I don't think many people will take a loss on really good prewar cards. And when the economy comes back things could get very crazy.

A collectibles dealer I know gave me a few bits of great advice
You can make money on anything if you can buy it right.
Become a good guesser, if you guess right much more often than you guess wrong you'll do fine.
Don't dwell on or hang onto your mistakes
If something is good you can't pay too much, just too soon.

making all that work is tougher than it sounds, but it's sound thinking in the long run.

Steve B

[barrysloate]

Those are good points Steve, but it may take the economy a long time to come back. And somewhere in that time frame dealers need a cash flow of some kind. So each one has to make a personal decision on whether or not to sell something at a loss.

And not all prewar cards are great. Many are rather common- T206's of course fall into that category- so it's tough to generalize whether someone should sell or hold a given item.

[Jim VB]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Peter- I think the majority of dealers are upside down on much of their inventory, and in order for them to offer cards at current levels they would be forced to take a loss. Many are not willing to do that, which is understandable.

From a business point of view, there is a fallacy with that way of thinking, prevalent as it may be.

Refusing to sell at true market prices often means refusing to sell at all. If this is the approach a business opts to take. They better have sufficient reserves to endure an extended period of reduced cash flow.

The money invested in inventory is already spent. It's gone, as far as the seller is concerned. Their profit results from continually buying, and reselling inventory. If their inventory is over valued, good business sense says to take the markdown necessary to move the goods, take whatever revenue they get, and buy more at the currently depressed prices.

Now I can fully understand if a collector, and sometimes seller, prefers not to take a "markdown," but full time dealers are different. A collector can just choose to sit it out and wait for an upturn. A true dealer will find it harder to do so.

Our hobby is filled with people who straddle that line between dealer and collector. Ebay makes it easy for anyone to open a store, with minimal overhead and expense, and become a dealer. A couple of months of reduced sales don't really pressure them that much. But anyone who relies on card sales as their prime source of income will react differently.

[barrysloate]

Good analysis Jim, and I'll admit that during this year I've had to sell a lot of my material at a loss. I try to keep those losses to a minimum, and I try to sell items that aren't too rare and won't be missed. But there are plenty of people who just refuse to sell anything at a loss. I agree it's not a great strategy, but I don't assume that every baseball card dealer is an economic wiz.

[Matthew H]

Jim's post is right on the money. When prices started to inflate, dealers made inflated profits from their inventory. I seriously doubt they continued to sell at lower prices because they bought their inventory when prices were lower. Now there is an adjustment, that "extra" profit has to come from somewhere. If you purchased cards only when prices were inflated, sorry about your luck, that money is coming from you.

If you decide to sit on the cards, put them back in your personal collection and enjoy them that way. It may be a long time before the upturn your waiting for comes along. Just like how it may be a long time before the average two bedroom one bath condo in Los Angeles sells for 850K again.

[Exhibitman]

Pretty accurate statements, folks. I'd add IMO that overall rarity has been the key factor in holding value, much more than condition. If you stocked up on rare cards before the crash-stuff you just don't see regardless of condition--you will be pleasantly surprised if you sell them now. If you loaded up on the flavor of the month mainstream cards, you are going to take a hit selling them now. If you fall into the latter category and are treating your selling as a business, you might consider liquidating the biggest loss items before year end to net the losses against your taxable gains for the year. Might help cushion the blow of the loss some to know that the tax man is your partner in it.

[tbob]

Originally Posted by Matthew H

Jim's post is right on the money. When prices started to inflate, dealers made inflated profits from their inventory. I seriously doubt they continued to sell at lower prices because they bought their inventory when prices were lower. Now there is an adjustment, that "extra" profit has to come from somewhere. If you purchased cards only when prices were inflated, sorry about your luck, that money is coming from you.

If you decide to sit on the cards, put them back in your personal collection and enjoy them that way. It may be a long time before the upturn your waiting for comes along. Just like how it may be a long time before the average two bedroom one bath condo in Los Angeles sells for 850K again.

I agree with Jim and Matt. Well said.

[Doug]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Good analysis Jim, and I'll admit that during this year I've had to sell a lot of my material at a loss. I try to keep those losses to a minimum, and I try to sell items that aren't too rare and won't be missed. But there are plenty of people who just refuse to sell anything at a loss. I agree it's not a great strategy, but I don't assume that every baseball card dealer is an economic wiz.

I'm sure no economics expert. I thought buy high, sell low was the strategy all of these years!

[Exhibitman]

I figure that the money I spend on cards is in lieu of golfing or other diversions, so as long as I don't need to have the cash flow, I won't sell off stuff at a loss. I'd rather just have the cards to enjoy.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Jim VB

From a business point of view, there is a fallacy with that way of thinking, prevalent as it may be.

Refusing to sell at true market prices often means refusing to sell at all. If this is the approach a business opts to take. They better have sufficient reserves to endure an extended period of reduced cash flow.

The money invested in inventory is already spent. It's gone, as far as the seller is concerned. Their profit results from continually buying, and reselling inventory. If their inventory is over valued, good business sense says to take the markdown necessary to move the goods, take whatever revenue they get, and buy more at the currently depressed prices.

Now I can fully understand if a collector, and sometimes seller, prefers not to take a "markdown," but full time dealers are different. A collector can just choose to sit it out and wait for an upturn. A true dealer will find it harder to do so.

Our hobby is filled with people who straddle that line between dealer and collector. Ebay makes it easy for anyone to open a store, with minimal overhead and expense, and become a dealer. A couple of months of reduced sales don't really pressure them that much. But anyone who relies on card sales as their prime source of income will react differently.

This is dead-on accurate. Holding one's inventory at the expense of purchasing new inventory makes no sense -- but have you been to a show recently? It's somewhat hard to find the economists under all those t-shirts with mustard stains.

[HRBAKER]

Originally Posted by calvindog

This is dead-on accurate. Holding one's inventory at the expense of purchasing new inventory makes no sense -- but have you been to a show recently? It's somewhat hard to find the economists under all those t-shirts with mustard stains.

There's a good line hiding here about mustard stains and "trickle-down" economics but I can't put my finger on it. Even in good times I never spied too many economists behind the tables at a card show. In many retail businesses that are inventory driven much of their profit is sitting in inventory build, if you are sitting on what this thread is calling common prewar stuff there is really only one way to pull out the profit and that is mark it down. If you don't need to that's another story.