Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

[nebboy]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Nobody has mentioned this yet (unless I missed it) but let me pose another take on the hobby economy: I think the market we had in roughly 2005-07 was a bubble, and that bubble has now burst. Not everybody may agree with this assessment but it had several markings of a bubble: prices that were increasing at an incredible rate and the notion that they had nowhere to go but up were two factors that support this theory.

Did anyone else get that feeling, or is it just me?

Oh I do agree that there has been a bubble poping for a few years, the only thing that does'nt come down is the expection that their cards price should be that same as it was at its highest. Going back to what a card sold at in a major auction house 2-5 or more yars ago and thinking that should be what mine is worth (or thats what I want for it). Never seems to change. The price guilds support this every month with the numbers they qoute.

[Bosox Blair]

I'm not sure I can agree with the original premise. I subscribe to VCP and follow the pricing on certain items with interest.

Most recently, pretty much everything I've tracked on Ebay sold at a price not far off the pre-crash 2008 levels, according to VCP data. Not just the T207s everyone mentions, but a grouping of T206s last night on Ebay with common backs in PSA 5-6. I monitored a few of the HOFers and a couple other notables and all of them sold at prices consistent with early 2008 sales.

For the last several months, each time I try to score a "deal" on a pre-war card on Ebay, I get seriously outbid.

Now I agree that when I first got VCP, I was shocked at how far prices had come down in late 2008 to early 2009 when compared to the prior couple years. But I believe that was the low point. A lot of what I look at appears to have rebounded more recently.

Put it this way - I'm a buyer and not a seller. I consider 2009 to have been a banner year for me adding to my collection for prices I was really happy about. As for 2010...definitely not so much.

Cheers,
Blair