Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

[36GoudeyMan]

...and politics aside, I've been following a few 30s and 40s sets, and have seen prices for 6s, 7s and 8s at ridiculously low levels. Compared to VCP's historic review, prices of common, big-set cards in PSA 7 are down as much as 50%, PSA 8s are down as much as 1/3. I watch auctions end and kick myself for not bidding -- even in sets I do not aggressively collect -- because the final price wound up being so low.

However, you never really know how high the high bidder would have gone, so perhaps with two bidders, the price realized would be more in line with historical prices. And that raises the question posed by some, whether the market is really soft, or whether fewer buyers are chasing cards and not driving prices up as much as they did before everyone got their example of Card X, or the economy pulled them out of the market.

I work in the bankruptcy field, and I will tell you from the front lines that real people's discretionary income is as low as I have ever seen it.

I conclude that the softness in prices is due to fewer collectors (for whatever reason, and there are many) not chasing as many cards and driving up prices competitively. Its supply and demand, and demand is way down.

Will demand go up? I think collectibles are the first to go and last to recover. People will be MUCH more conservative with their investments/discretionary income (pay down your mortgage faster, pay off the tuition bills faster, but don't piss your money away on baseball cards while we're in debt). Collectibles of any type will likely be depressed for 3-5 years, and will only recover when the average collector (and all of this applies to the average collector who really drives the market) can start competing for cards again, and that won't be soon.