For those who fear the demise of the collectibles market may be near...

[JamesGallo]

Originally Posted by terjung

Interesting point. I always thought it was a bit weird to have a book slabbed in that you couldn't see the interior pages, but only thought about the lack of being able to read it and hadn't considered the TPG portion of it. With our beloved baseball cards, we often judge and opine as to whether something is accurately graded and sometimes even have "guess the grade" threads. With comics, you truly can't do much judging of the interior pages - except possibly count the number of pages from the edge (not sure how possible that even is). I wonder how stringently the interior pages are graded. For example, we know that SGC is tough on paper loss on the cards. I wonder how printing dots or registration issues (for example) may affect the grading if it were only present on the interior pages. Once it is slabbed, you may not even know the reason for the downgrade. A pristine front and back cover and binding could potentially deserve a much lower grade based on interior pages and you'd never know it unless it were specifically delineated or cracked out of its slab.

All that to say this... I think it may be tougher to "buy the comic not the slab" in that world due to this issue. Perhaps I am wrong though and will be enlightened.

I have collected comics for 20+ years and was doing it before SGC was even around so I think I am qualified to comment on this thread.

The Action #1 was sold by Steven Fishler's company Metropolis Comics. Fishler is considered the biggest comic dealer in the world. He has a huge inventory and he personally has a large movie poster, original art and comic collection. I have dealt with him in the past and consider him a straight shooter. This issue was one of the best in the world and as we all know the best brings is way more money then anything else. Just compare prices on high grade Wagner's, has any other one gotten even close to half of the trimmed card?

The other important aspect is this book is unrestored. That makes a HUGE difference in a golden age (1930's-40's) comic.

This book much like it's character has become iconic. The cover has been ripped off many times and is widely reprinted. I would say it compares somewhat to Babe Ruth, but is rarer then any Ruth card and likely has higher demand since there is only one 1st issue and there are several early/rookie Ruth cards (depending on your point of view).

As for the pages, a comic is looked at differently then a card. The pages are graded on quality from white-brittle. As noted later in this thread CGC will note any tears, writing or missing pages on the label. As for as printing registry that is not someone I have seen ever talked about for the pages. On the covers there are some people that won't care about a book that has a slight diamond cut, others like myself hate the diamond cut. Regardless CGC does not deduct for this (which I think is BS).

People like slabs on comics even most so to protect the book. As for reading it, most extremely popular key books have been reprinted many times, and lower grade copies are mostly available. That being said I am not sure too many people are worried about reading their high grade Action 1 as what would be the point since any tiny stress could bring the grade down a full point and greatly impact the price.

So I have no doubt that the Action #1 sold, and if this isn't enough information then I would say you can't prove any sale unless you see it happen or have a email from both parties saying it happened.

As there are plenty of opinions on Heritage I will not comment on the sale of the Detective #27.

James G

[BlueDevil89]

A year later, a Spiderman goes for $1,100,000...

http://movies.yahoo.com/news/movies....or-1.1-million

[Jim VB]

nm

[jcmtiger]

Shouldn't this discussion be on the chat board?

Joe

[ephus]

Originally Posted by JamesGallo

I have collected comics for 20+ years and was doing it before SGC was even around so I think I am qualified to comment on this thread.

The Action #1 was sold by Steven Fishler's company Metropolis Comics. Fishler is considered the biggest comic dealer in the world. He has a huge inventory and he personally has a large movie poster, original art and comic collection. I have dealt with him in the past and consider him a straight shooter. This issue was one of the best in the world and as we all know the best brings is way more money then anything else. Just compare prices on high grade Wagner's, has any other one gotten even close to half of the trimmed card?

The other important aspect is this book is unrestored. That makes a HUGE difference in a golden age (1930's-40's) comic.
This book much like it's character has become iconic. The cover has been ripped off many times and is widely reprinted. I would say it compares somewhat to Babe Ruth, but is rarer then any Ruth card and likely has higher demand since there is only one 1st issue and there are several early/rookie Ruth cards (depending on your point of view)
As for the pages, a comic is looked at differently then a card. The pages are graded on quality from white-brittle. As noted later in this thread CGC will note any tears, writing or missing pages on the label. As for as printing registry that is not someone I have seen ever talked about for the pages. On the covers there are some people that won't care about a book that has a slight diamond cut, others like myself hate the diamond cut. Regardless CGC does not deduct for this (which I think is BS).

People like slabs on comics even most so to protect the book. As for reading it, most extremely popular key books have been reprinted many times, and lower grade copies are mostly available. That being said I am not sure too many people are worried about reading their high grade Action 1 as what would be the point since any tiny stress could bring the grade down a full point and greatly impact the price.

So I have no doubt that the Action #1 sold, and if this isn't enough information then I would say you can't prove any sale unless you see it happen or have a email from both parties saying it happened.

As there are plenty of opinions on Heritage I will not comment on the sale of the Detective #27.

James G

Very thorough and correct explanation James G. From the first quote the poster said something about how there are guess grade threads for cards. There are guess the grade threads for comics on the cgc boards, but the true guessing of the condition of the inside pages is not necessarily in flux because anyone at anytime can call CGC and ask for graders notes on the cert. # of a particular comic. You talk to an actual grader and they explain the features and flaws of the interior and/or exterior that made the grade a certain number. These notes can be very detailed and lengthy. This practice is something that the graded comic world has done right and the grading card world could learn from. How many times have you scratched your head at a grade and a simple 2 minute conversation/explanation with a person who actually graded that card would answer most every question. Just an observation and my two cents.

[ls7plus]

I don't know much about the comic book market (I had all the original marvel comics, including the first Incredible Hulk, first Spiderman, first Fantastic Four, etc., when I was a kid, until my dad threw them all out one day. He thought: (1) they were too violent; and (2) I was too impressionable at the time--thanks, Dad!). However, I do study whatever I can get my hands on regarding the history of the coin collecting market, and it is interesting to note that there have been at least 32 individual coin sales for $1million plus that have been reported since May, 1996 through 2008 (See "100 Greatest Coins," 3rd edition, p 124, by well-known coin dealer Jeff Garrett). Other reputable sources in coins include anything written by Q. David Bowers.

PEOPLE LIKE TO COLLECT THINGS THAT ARE RARE AND SIGNIFICANT! The actual, AVAILABLE supply of desireable items, not the number still in existence, determines price--as rare items disappear into private collections for many years--sometimes decades, the actually available supply can be vastly reduced. As that occurs, and/or more collectors are drawn to the item over time, the supply vs demand equation can change quite DRAMATICALLY with regard to an item that is already rare to begin with. When that happens, explosive growth in price is the result!

For the guys buying collectibles at the price levels being discussed here, the amount they're paying is often like pocket change for us. Part of the attraction of owning an example of the rarest and best in any field of collecting is that it is a part of the collector's legacy. Just as THE Wagner has changed hands rather often since it passed through Gretsky and McNall's hands, the so-called trophy coins worth well into six and seven figures experience the same phenomenon, and for the same reasons.

I'm frankly a little stunned that collectors like us would question the fact that collectibles can achieve substantial appreciation over time--we see and appreciate the inherent, though somewhat intangible value they possess, and we strive to obtain the best examples of our own personal quests that our finances will permit. Great art continues to dwarf the prices even the most expensive coins bring (although the book I referred to estimates a unique 1849 Double Eagle--$20 gold piece, with the only known example currently held by the Smithsonian--to be worth a cool $20 million). Check the value in a reliable guide to see what a 1910 T210 Joe Jackson was worth in 1995, then check reported recent sales. Similarly, the very first sale of the 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth minor league schedule card I am aware of was in the Copeland auction in 1989 (?), when it went for $6,000. Try and get your hands on one now for less than $200K!

Maybe we're skeptical because there is a very human tendency to view life as being just what it is at any given moment, and to think that's what it always will be. The value of a collectible is what it is, and that's all it will be (at least until I get around to buying the example I want, then its ok to go up in value). That is a static view of life, when in reality, life is a dynamic sea of change at all times, all around us. Q. David Bowers did a study based on articles appearing in "The Numismatist," a leading coin publication going back, I believe, to the late 1800's. He noted that many times throughout the history of coin collecting (which really became an organized hobby in the 1850's), people felt that coin values had peaked, when time and hindsight showed that that had not even remotely been the case. Ask Barry about the Honus Wagner he sold in the eighties for $16,000!

Wow, what a windbag I've been in this post--probably got ten bucks, rather than my "two cents" in. There will be a thirty minute quiz on this stuff tomorrow, guys!

Larry

[barrysloate]

Yes Larry, when I sold that Wagner I felt like I hit the lottery. But I don't think we will see the price appreciation of vintage baseball cards that we saw in the period roughly 1985-2005. The hobby has matured and I think any price increases we see in the future will be less dramatic.

And I never like to gauge the state of the market based what the rarest or best item sells for. Better to look at prices in the middle to get a true pulse.

[ls7plus]

Ah, but the market, in my opinion, really only started to mature after the crash of the new card rookie market in the early 90's, and only after people began to find out that there was a lot more of the '50's material out there than many originally thought. Rember when so many touted the '54 Bowman Ted Williams as being rare, because it had been pulled from production due to a contract dispute between Topps and Bowman? We've now learned that it might qualify as somewhat scarce, but not truly rare at all. Only after that phase did the card market really start to mature, with the focus shifting to truly rare, significant material, which in most instances meant pre-war items.

I believe you'll see quite a number of million dollar cards in our lifetime, including many of the Wagner's that are out there, quite possibly all of the 1914 Baltimore News Ruths (barring the finding of a significant hoard of them),
M101 Ruths in true NmMt, possibly the "T206" Cobb with Ty Cobb Tobacco back and some of the rarest of the rare cards of the highest echelon hall-of-famers in the best possible condition. The two or three Gem Mint 10
'52 Mantles are probably already there, if one was to change hands. I would include key cards from the Goudey, Cracker Jack or T206 sets graded 9' or 10's, or even a '54 Wilson's Franks Williams in such a lofty grade, but only with the caveat that it is not discovered later on that some of these cards are really restored cards that have been getting by the graders. And with regard to the latter, I don't know if that is the case or not, but would be concerned about it if I had the funds to be buying such cards now.

Somewhat less spectacular cards won't be left out in the cold, though. I think scarce to rare examples of a less prominent character will also appreciate quite nicely, though not to those levels. I do think, though, that we'll be surprised at the number of $100,000 + cards out there 20-30 years from now.

So, respectfully, Barry, I disagree with you. I think cards now are where coins were in the '60's or early '70's (coin collecting did have about a 120-year head start on us as an organized hobby, yet it took a long time for the really valuable coins to achieve those lofty price tags). Cards, however, are catching up fast, with the rarest and most significant appreciating faster in value than comparable coins did, probably due to the fact that a lot of coin people have gone into the card hobby (David Hall, after all, started out with his grading services in coins around 1986, and not with PSA in cards). I remember when a rag of a Wagner was around $50,000 in the mid-nineties. You can multiply that by five now, and that train ain't nowhere near the station!

Coins went through the same sort of boom and bust cycle that the new rookie market did in the sixties, when many investors came into the field, hungry to buy bright shiney items in very high grade, which were actually quite common. Mint rolls of 1950-D nickels went from $100 or so to a high of $1200, before crashing back down to their present value of about $300/roll. Same with high mint grade Morgan silver dollars, many of which existed in the hundreds of thousands, but unknowlegable investors considered to be quite scarce or even rare simply because of their age. Yet the truly rare, significant coins weren't subject to that boom and crash cycle--they just went along their merry way, appreciating at about 12% or so compounded annually, meaning that their value would double every six years, which adds up quite nicely over time.

All of which is not to say that the '33 Goudey Babe Ruth in PSA 4, for sake of example, will rise to such lofty levels, nor will a T206 Cobb in a similar grade. There are just too many of those cards out there for that to happen. But look at something like the Baltimore News Ruth. Lifson estimates that there are 11 or so in existence. For now, let's assume that's true. If there are 1100 collectors out there in the hunt for one, and they are all available for sale, the ratio of buyers to cards is 100:1. But if 7 of those cards find permanent homes in private collections, the ratio shifts dramatically to 1093:4, or
273:1. Let two more of the remaining four find a similar happy, long-term residence,and the ratio shifts explosively to 1091:2, or 545:1. The value of those still available will reflect that in their price, and my example doesn't even reflect the fact that such a dramatic increase will not be lost on the collecting public, adding even more collectors to the hunt. If a thousand new collectors are then attracted to the card who have the means to procure one, our ratio shifts to 2,091:2, or 1,045:1! All of which is basically Econ 101, simply the supply and demand equation illustrated in a dynamic example. But that's also how the cream of the crop rises so swiftly to the top!

Because I believe we are far closer to the beginning than the end, insofar as card values are concerned, the opportunity is here and now, if you're concerned about value appreciation. Just educate yourselves with regard to what's out there, and our cumulative knowlege here is an invaluable asset in that respect. And if you're not concerned about the investment aspects, or if its only part of the attraction, as it is for me, we still have the very history of the game we can hold right in our hands! And how very priceless is that?

Those of you that have had the patience to read through these two long-winded posts of mine can paste a gold star on your foreheads!

Happy collecting, guys!

Larry

[Leon]

Larry- thanks for your well thought out posts. I happen to agree with you on almost everything you said. I guess I am biased though as I have been focused on collecting the scarce and unusual since day one of my adult collecting. best regards

[barrysloate]

Larry- we may be talking about two different things. I agree that the very rarest and most expensive cards will continue to increase in value. But I think the more commonly traded cards, the ones set builders and type collectors buy on a regular basis, won't see the dramatic increases. The guy piecing together a T206 set one card at a time is not travelling in the same circles as the guy buying a Baltimore News Ruth. Those are two different markets as far as I'm concerned.