Is this card really worth that????

Wite3 · #1 01-05-2010, 08:48 AM

If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months. My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss (eventhough Joss comes with three backs incl. Cycle, it was shortprinted greatly).

If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)? They are all HOFers and available with the Cycle back and just as plentiful as the Matty.

Joshua

Matt · #2 01-05-2010, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wite3

My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss

The pop reports show significantly otherwise (5-6 times as many Josses as Matty Cycles). My guess as to why your survey shows differently then the SGC population reports is that your documentation is of which cards came up for sale (scarcity) which doesn't necessarily indicate how many of each exist (rarity). The Joss has been a known rarity for years and people may hold on to it; the Matty only recently gained wide acclaim and is still not 100% well known (in fact we had a long time board member start a thread about a month ago asking if anyone knew anything about a 37-1 Matty variation) and therefore it's probable not everyone is yet holding it; I wonder approximately what % of the sales of the Cycle Matty that you recorded were advertised as it being the rare 37-1 variation?

Quote:

If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)?

Rarity doesn't equal selling for more. I know you suggested in another thread that the T206 DeMitt/O'Hara only sell for more because you think they are rarer then other PB cards but that argument isn't correct; there are many PB backed T206s with identical press runs to the DeMitt & O'Hara that sell for no such premium. As is this case here, it is the combination of the rarity + the variation that drives the value and the reason why the Matty will always sell for more then the other HOFers you mentioned, even if they all exist with Cycle backs in similar numbers.

If collectors collected "true master sets" (every front back advertising combo) then your logic would be correct, but most T-card set collectors consider a master set complete with player-specific textual variations, but not counting advertising back differences. It's why most consider the T206 set includes both version of Demitt/O'Hara.

barrysloate · #3 01-05-2010, 09:44 AM

If I were to posit a guess on the future price of a Matty with Cycle back, I would say it is likely to come down from its $9500 level, but still sell for more than it should with relation to other Cycle backs.

tbob · #4 01-05-2010, 01:19 PM

One caveat about the Matty 37-1 Cycle back is that when collectors (myself included) built a T205 set, no significance was given to the company which produced the cards, i.e. Sweet cap, Piedmont, AB, Cycle, etc. I noticed I had far fewer Broadleafs upon completion and no Drums or Hindus but otherwise I was concerned with the fronts and making sure each card had no creases or damage and was well centered and the only back concerns I had were whether there were any ink smudging or marking, staining or paper loss.
The bottom line is that there are going to be several of these Matty "variations" pop up in non-slabbed sets owned by collectors so I wouldn't take the slabbed pops as gospel. Although I slab all my caramels, my tobacco cards and sets are 90% unslabbed. I think a lot of collectors, especially grizzled old veterans, have sets which are not slabbed so the pop numbers are going to be off quite a bit on this card.

Matt · #5 01-05-2010, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tbob

The bottom line is that there are going to be several of these Matty "variations" pop up in non-slabbed sets owned by collectors so I wouldn't take the slabbed pops as gospel. Although I slab all my caramels, my tobacco cards and sets are 90% unslabbed. I think a lot of collectors, especially grizzled old veterans, have sets which are not slabbed so the pop numbers are going to be off quite a bit on this card.

Bob - that's a good point when comparing it to a caramel, but when comparing to other T205s (as we have been) it shouldn't make a difference - I'd think most people who would have their T205 Wilhelm slabbed would also have their T205 Matty slabbed; in fact the opposite is probably true - more Matty's are likely slabbed then a random T205 common.

tbob · #6 01-05-2010, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt

Bob - that's a good point when comparing it to a caramel, but when comparing to other T205s (as we have been) it shouldn't make a difference - I'd think most people who would have their T205 Wilhelm slabbed would also have their T205 Matty slabbed; in fact the opposite is probably true - more Matty's are likely slabbed then a random T205 common.

Matt- I know I won't have my Cycle Matty slabbed nor the Wilhelm because all the other cards in the set are raw. I get your point though.
By the way I am not a pop report regular so I was curious how the Latham and Leifeld variations compare with the Wilhelm and other variations. These variations have been known for a long time compared with the relatively short time of Wilhelm and the 37-1 Matty but I was wondering how they compare.

asoriano · #7 01-05-2010, 05:42 PM

Bob,

I don't follow the pop reports closely, but here is some information regarding a few variations.

I can tell you that the "A.P." Leifield variation is pretty easy to find (I've owned four at one time) and doesn't carry too much of a premium. A "3" sells for about $35-$50.

The W.A. Latham pops up for sale every now and then, but is very hard to find in a grade higher than a "4". If you do, expect to pay well.

The Wilhelm "suffered" is very, very tough. In my opinion, it is the second toughest card in the master set and tougher than the Matty Cycle.

Another variation that is very difficult to acquire is the Hoblitzell Name Correct, No Cin. variation. I'd also say that this card is tougher than the Matty Cycle. I wasn't surprised how well the SGC 60 did in the B&L auction. You don't find it often, and when you do, it is usually in low grade.

On a side note, the toughest Hall of Famer, by far, is the Joss. You don't see many examples that grade higher than VG-EX. Lots of collectors for the Joss, too.

As far as the Matty Cycle is concerned, I don't think we will ever see an example go for more than it did in the OldJudge auction. I'm fairly confident it will decline in price over a certain amount of time.

T206Collector · #8 01-05-2010, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt

There are many PB backed T206s with identical press runs to the DeMitt & O'Hara that sell for no such premium. As is this case here, it is the combination of the rarity + the variation that drives the value and the reason why the Matty will always sell for more then the other HOFers you mentioned, even if they all exist with Cycle backs in similar numbers.

If collectors collected "true master sets" (every front back advertising combo) then your logic would be correct, but most T-card set collectors consider a master set complete with player-specific textual variations, but not counting advertising back differences. It's why most consider the T206 set includes both version of Demitt/O'Hara.

I think in a prior thread I also chimed in on this one. As far as I can tell, this variation is the same as the Demmitt and O'Hara T206 variations, except it occurs on the reverse. If Matty had a white hat on his T205 Cycle backed cards, I think you would have more people pursuing it as a true -- and rarer -- variation, notwithstanding that it appears on all Cycle-backed T205 Matty's.

Tcards-Please · #9 01-05-2010, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T206Collector

I think in a prior thread I also chimed in on this one. As far as I can tell, this variation is the same as the Demmitt and O'Hara T206 variations, except it occurs on the reverse. If Matty had a white hat on his T205 Cycle backed cards, I think you would have more people pursuing it as a true -- and rarer -- variation, notwithstanding that it appears on all Cycle-backed T205 Matty's.

You hit it right on the head, I couldn't have said it any better.

r/
Frank

Anthony S. · #10 01-05-2010, 05:10 PM

I will gladly mail the number "1" to whomever wants to affix it to their Cycle Matties. You pay postage.

calvindog · #11 01-05-2010, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wite3

If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months.

Joshua

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

tbob · #12 01-05-2010, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calvindog

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

Make that two.

Tcards-Please · #13 02-12-2010, 04:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by calvindog

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tbob

Make that two.

Andrew, if you didn't win it, keep your eyes on the BST, as several people will be listing theirs today.

The final price w/o buyers premium was $5999.00.

http://www.goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=12549

r/
Frank

#14 02-12-2010, 08:06 AM

yeah frank in a couple yrs the card will be quit a bit less. I am going to wait for the hype to pass before pursuing. I would rather drop $8k on a Hobby no stats.

marcdelpercio · #15 02-12-2010, 11:36 AM

I really don't think the prices on this card will drop much over the long run. I hope they do as this is the only card I'm missing towards a master set. However, consider these factors:

1. This has been accepted as a true variation by at least a large percentage of the collecting community (not trying to reopen that debate but I think the evidence is clear).

2. This is one of the most beautiful cards in the T205 set (if not EVER produced) which is widely popular and collected.

3. This is a top-tier Hall of Fame player.

4. This is a scarce card. With all tracking information that I have seen, I think an estimate of 25-50 known copies is pretty accurate.

If Dick Hoblitzell is commanding 6-8k for a poor grade copy of a print variation from the same set, what makes you think that Christy Mathewson can't be at least in that same ballpark? I realize that the Hoblitzell is probably a bit scarcer...but not much. Given the factors I listed, I'm curious to hear a logical explanation of why anybody feels that this card will drastically decrease in demand/value over the long run.

Rob D. · #16 02-12-2010, 12:15 PM

With all of the recent interest in T205 Mathewson variations, maybe it's time I consigned my T205/T206 "Dark Cap," proudly displayed in a PSA holder.

barrysloate · #17 02-12-2010, 12:35 PM

Marc- in the case of the Hoblitzel card there were two separate print runs, one with the stats and one with the area left blank. And the blank version is of course very scarce.

With regard to the Matty Cycle, it is possible that the 37-11 became 37-1 simply because a small foreign substance got on to the printing plate obscuring the 1. To date we are not sure why this occurred. Thus, all the Cycles have the same very minor flaw.

I do think the card will continue to sell for a premium well above the 37-11 cards, but that premium could grow smaller over time. Just a guess though.

calvindog · #18 02-12-2010, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob D.

With all of the recent interest in T205 Mathewson variations, maybe it's time I consigned my T205/T206 "Dark Cap," proudly displayed in a PSA holder.

This sort of error is on the level of Heine being labeled Honus. There are not many cards that are more iconic than the T206 Mathewson Dark Cap. I would think that every PSA grader has seen this card 100 times.

Leon · #19 02-12-2010, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob D.

With all of the recent interest in T205 Mathewson variations, maybe it's time I consigned my T205/T206 "Dark Cap," proudly displayed in a PSA holder.

Not me...I am holding out for the T205 White cap Matty...btw, I do agree the T205 Matty is one of the best looking cards of any pre-war card. I even have one with a Cycle back but it is the error that says Piedmont. I am trying to get it listed but no luck yet

.

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