Investment Potential

[Exhibitman]

I would dissuade him from investing blindly in cards. Just like any other form of investment cards require study and knowledge of the markets and issues. You wouldn't buy a bundle of mortgage loans blindly, right...ok, bad example.

[yanksfan09]

As a young collector (27), I too am uncertain about the long term investment potential of cards for the generational reasons previously stated. However, it seems to me that currently many people are uncertain for the long term investment potential in almost all areas (stocks, bonds etc...). There are many Geo-political, environmental etc... factors that have people uneasy.

Either way, I've been hooked on cards since I was about 8 years old and will collect them until I die, regardless of value/price.

For a 3-5 up to maybe 10 year investment I would feel comfortable staying with the true immortal/legendary players such as Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Wagner, Mantle etc.... I would stick with hitters as opposed to pitchers. A card of one of these type of players from their playing days is essential. Buy an attractive card and strive for a lesser seen issue, but it doesn't have to be exceedingly rare. And buy it in the best condition for the best price you can find. Be patient and wait for the right deal to come about.

[barrysloate]

Erick- it's certainly true we are living in an era where things change quickly and we never really know what to expect next. That makes it harder for us to make good choices whatever we are doing. I still maintain if you put together a quality collection of scarce cards, learn about them, keep adding to them over a long period of time, and have patience you will probably do fine and what you have will appreciate in value. But like others, I am leery of the idea of a 3-5 year investment portfolio. Those things don't always work out.

[vintagechris]

Tell him to buy silver. I also like presidential autographs. They will always be part of American history and I think will always be sought after. They are also a bargain if you compare them to baseball autographs.

[yanksfan09]

Barry- Agree and exercising patience for the right deal is key. I also want to echo the potential of signed checks of certain players. However, you need to do a lot of homework before buying any signed stuff.

[barrysloate]

Your chances of making money on anything increase dramatically if you study and learn as much about it as possible. Too many people invest without really knowing what they are doing, and often they are disappointed with the results.

[ctownboy]

bosoxphan,

I somewhat disagree. Like I said before, I am 42 and could count at least 10 other guys just from my graduating clas who collected cards in middle school. But ALL of them stopped collecting by the time they were 18 and I doubt they have started collecting again even though they probably have children of their own right now.

One guy I know did NOT start collecting again because he died years ago and he was the one who had the best collection of all of us (his Dad gave him his cards he had collected in the 1950's).

Also, people my age are stuck. When we were born there weren't many of us to begin with. Look at the population reports and you will seee there is a bottleneck between the Baby Boomers and the Gen X'ers. I and people my age, am stuck in that bottleneck.

For the most part, we had to wait for the better jobs because the Baby Boomers were still alive and working. Look at the Fortune 500 companies and the people at the top of those companies. Look at their ages. How many 40 to 45 years olds do you see? Not many. Those companies are still led by people 50 and older. Lower down the chain of command you will find people my age but you will also find plenty of Boomers there also.

So, there weren't many of us to begin with and we have been stuck, as far as advancing to the top levels of business. This means our incomes haven't been as high as the generation before us, the ones who are now at the top of the business chain and who are the whales.

Then there is the Gen X'ers behind us. The people who not only knew how to use computers but who also knew how to build them and write code for them. They are the ones who started the tech companies and who made the big bucks. Not many people my age are on the list of tech company founders.

Look at the ages of the guys who started Youtube and Face Book. They are younger than me and worth a heck of a lot more money than me. I seriously doubt they are into collecting baseball cards.

This is why I am pessimistic about "whales" my age or younger emerging in the baseball card collecting market. There are either less people they can develop from (my generation) or the larger group (Gen X) is interested in other things.

[ctownboy]

yanksfan09,

See, it is people like YOU who are going to have to become "whales" to keep the hobby alive and the prices going up. People who have "loved" cards since they were young and who continued to collect them.

How many of your friends still collect cards? If they don't collect, how many do you think might want to start again? If there are any, how many of those would go into vintage cards? Of those, how many have the incomes or other assets to become "whales"?

I am not saying people my age and younger wont still collect cards, I am just saying that there aren't going to be as many of us and with the smaller demand, the prices wont continue to go up as fast and will probably actually decrease because of the supply that is going to be hitting the market over the next 20 years (with the deaths of the Boomers who have the large collections).

Also, if the younger kids DO collect cards, they are ONLY going to want to collect Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers cards. That is because ESPN, Fox and TBS basically only show televise games of thsoe teams on a regular basis.

When I was young, I lived in a small town in Indiana and didn't have cable TV. I had to rely on the NBC Game of the Week or box scores from the newspaper to follow players on a national basis. The local TV station out of Louisville would occasionally show some Reds games and I would try to listen to as many games on radio as possible.

Because of all of that, I grew up a Reds fan and have continued to be one (hard to do these last nine years LOSING years).

Over the last 20 years, that hasn't been the case. If you had cable or satellite, you could watch more games and become a fan of a team OUTSIDE of your local geographic area.

Over the last few years, with the major networks shoving the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers down the throats of viewers (I have basically STOPPED watching baseball on tv because of this, even the World Series) young kids living in rural Indiana are NOW just as likely to be a Yankees fan as a kid living in Manhattan. That is if they are watching baseball on TV at all.

So, there is ANOTHER reason why I am pessimistic about collectors in the future - they will only know and care about just a few teams and players who played for those teams.

Joey Votto is a REALLY good player for the Reds BUT, unless he is traded to or signs with one of the LARGE MARKET TEAMS, he will remain virtually unknown. That means unless his cards are made out of pure gold, he isn't going to have many people interested in collecting him.