Investment Potential

[uffda51]

All good advice. By all means, don't invest in 1981 Donruss.

I would stick with dead guys. There is nothing new to be learned about Mantle, Ruth or Cobb that could cause their prices to plummet. Current players? Who can say?

[FrankWakefield]

I like what Bruce said. I think that streets, buildings, parks and the like should not be named after folks that are still alive...

Tell your friend that a hobby is a hobby... invest in investments: ie stocks, bonds, an education, home, real estate, mutual funds... delusional to consider cards as investments. It matters not that they have in the past, or might in the future, accrue in value. Might as well buy a new Corvette, jack it up off its wheels, inject oil in the cylinders, cover it, and consider that an investment.

[mintacular]

What if you don't want to invest in other assets (or already have) and decide that cards is where you want to sink some $? If so, which direction do you go? I think if you hold the long view then the pre-war T206 HOFers in nice shape is a safe bet. If you are looking to flip something quickley than perhaps there are other routes to explore. I also think you should consider players that hold popularity beyond just baseball, maybe someone who broke barriers, had historical impact. Jackie Robinson, Clemente come to mind.

[FrankWakefield]

Go right ahead... invest in matchbook covers, too. I have a few old Matchbox cars. And some Dinky toys, mostly military, and mostly pre WW II. I don't consider those investments. Golly, invest in sterling silver state spoons... or cut glass stemware. Jelly glass jars. Happy Meal toys (unopened, of course.)

I taught some eBay classes for a community program a few times. A few 'buying' classes, and a couple of 'selling' classes. One lady was earnestly serious about learning to sell on eBay. As she was getting the hang of it, I asked her what she wanted to sell. She told me she had all of these plate block # commemorative stamps from the 70s and 80s, that she'd bought, and she figured she could sell them for lots of money. I suggested we search a few that were for sale, knowing what we'd find. For the most part, most of them barely sold over face value. She was shattered, but stayed with the class. Plate block commemorative stamps weren't a very good investment, even if that was where she wanted to invest. So if they truly are a friend, steer them away from ball cards.

[mintacular]

Like any good investor, I am not advocating putting all your eggs in one basket (especially ball cards). However, if this individual has decided they want to buy some cards towards this end, there are some cards out there they could purchase today, and perhaps if chosen wisely, could increase in value over time. I don't think the lady you mention is relevant here as late 70s whatever she was interested has no history of past sales, etc. So, the relevant question still remains, what cards are currently undervalued?

[caramelcard]

I agree with frank...except for the stocks part. I'd rather have tangible cards rather than stocks. Stocks are horsepucky.

[ctownboy]

mintacular,

Be careful "investing" in baseball cards. I once had an old time collector (who owns a T206 Wagner and whose collection would be valued well over $1 million dollars now if he still owns everything he did when I was in almost daily contact with him) tell me that he was worried about cards becoming a bubble situation.

He watched what happened to coins after they started to be graded (a bubble and then a crash followed by only true rarites keeping ahead of the inflation rate) and what happened to stamps (especially Hawaiian issues). For a short period of time, they skyrocketed then crashed and only a small percentage have regained the value they had 30 or so years ago.

He was worried that cards wouldn't be collected as much in the future and thus not be as valuable because children were NOT as dedicated to baseball or collecting cards then (2002) as they had been when he was young (late 1940's and early 1950's) or when I was young (mid to late 1970's).

This man was worried that graded cards would skyrocket in value and because of that, the "average" collector would be priced out of the market.

He was also worried that graded cards would increase in value and that would, in turn, cause people to trim cards or do other things to falsely cause cards to go up in price. He said if enough of this happened and too many people got burned then the trust in cards and graders would be gone and people would dump their "investments" and never return (like they had done with stamps years before)..

He said this would ESPECIALLY be true of people who "invested" in cards instead of just being happy in collecting and owning them for what they were.

He advised me that if I was accumulating cards just for financial reasons then I should either get totally out of cards or only put into cards what I felt I could be comfortable with losing if their value fell to zero.

The last time I saw him was the Summer of 2007 and he was selling a LOT of his cards because he saw the economic crisis coming and wanted to be prepared for it and sitting in cash.

[FrankWakefield]

Amen.

It reminds me of one fine article in an old Smithsonian magazine about Tulipmania.

[mintacular]

I am as cynical about card value as the next guy. I grew up in the late 80s collecting and the "value" of those cards dropped x1000. I do not have starry eyes thinking my cards will increase all that much but also believe some basic understanding of supply and demand can help people put together a collection today that can be cashed out in the future.

[egbeachley]

Very prudent suggestions lately.

As far as the advice always given that one should invest in the high grade, rare, or HOF'ers, I'm not so certain. They are already expensive or fully valued. I would think that like all investments, buy low then sell high. To me that would be mid-grade T206's that have recently lost some value. Don't look at a nice T206 Cobb for $5,000 rising to $7,000 as being better than 100 common T206's for $50 each going to $80 each.

[ullmandds]

I agree with drddut...buy as many e94 mattys as you can find...these will outperform any other card! Sorry...I couldn't resist. I think any of the hobby rarities...t206 wags...plank...rare backs...o'hara/demmit st louis...cobbs...ruths...gehrigs...mantles...ruth/gehrig autographed itmes...type I photos of HOF'ers...goudey Lajoie...there are tons more that would be fantastic investments in my happiness!

[JeremyW]

Your mentor was very smart. I think he may have underestimated the power of baseball though. Baseball will survive through the next 100 years & remain very popular & as it rebuilds its popularity people will spend & spend on the early history.