is ebay killing high grade 50's-60's market?

[Chris-Counts]

I completely agree with you, Jeff. And unlike the other services, it doesn't cost anything to look at eBay ...

[Exhibitman]

Welcome to the Great Recession. With all that's going on is it any surprise that cards are feeling the pinch?

The basic problem with high grade mainstream postwar cards is that they aren't all that uncommon. I don't think there is an 8/88 out there that can't be found readily with a little effort. With that availability deferring a purchase is easy. Now, if you take a 1 of 1 card or a very low pop card, it will still sell very nicely even with fewer people out there to compete for it.

Of course, if you really care about value maintenance, stop collecting plastic and start collecting classics--go prewar and go rare when you do. When a rare prewar card surfaces it does well in almost any market.

[JasonL]

if buyers are thinking that they are getting good deals relative to the SMR value....helps keep the buyer buying!
It's like an Indian Rug store that has the perpetual "Going out of Business Sale!"
Why wouldn't you buy????
Deals galore!

[Leon]

Well, I am not really a postwar or high grade collector but I have followed a few auctions before and use ebay to buy, extensively. I think Adam hit the nail on the head.

If you can go find the card tomorrow, and cash is short today (as it is for a lot of us), then you put off that buy unless it's a steal ie...a few of the sales listed in the first post. If I were a high grade 50's - 70's collector I would still have some worry that many more of my valuable PSA 9, 1 of 1 cards would come to surface. I am sure a 1 of 5 goes for less than a 1 of 1. I wonder how many unopened cases the Fritsch family still has?

In the pre-war space it's about true rarity and not pop reports. I still get a chuckle when someone asks me about many of my rare cards and ask the pop report on them. I usually just tell them the pop is snap-crackle and move on. They obviously don't understand pre-war (WWII)......

edited to add that I am NOT putting down the way anyone collects...if they want to go for high grade post war it is their money...If they have fun collecting that way who am I to rain on their parade?...Hey, who knows, their way might be better in the long run!! (it's not a philosophy I share though)

[mintacular]

I think SMR book prices is the issue, not that demand for post-war vintage has dropped. If your argument is "post-war vintage cards aren't selling for book", then yes, you will lose every time (recession or no recession) as book prices have historically represented the top end price for almost all cards and are almost never realized.

As for pre-war cards, I think any smart consumer recognizes that these cards are a safe investment IF YOU HAVE THE $ and KNOWLEDGE to play the game.

Here's my question: If you had 100 grand to spend on cards and your primary goal was to purchase cards that would appreciate in value over time, would you buy pre-war tobacco cards, etc. or load up on high-grade HOF golden era rookies (Mantle, Koufax, Mays, Clemente, etc)??

I think the argument could be made that supply of high grade post-war cards will stay low enough and demand will be steady (no one family can flood the market with thousands more Clemente cards) and thus a 100 grand investment in these cards could pay dividends.

Here's my issue with the pre-war ones, I think a big chunk of collectors buy cards for the player on the card and memories of post-war players are still fresh with many while pre-war players will fade in the public's conscience as the years roll on...JMO

[Doug]

I'm not sure if you are familiar with Vintage Card Prices or not, but it tracks actual sales of cards and gives you a much better idea of a true "book value". I often consult it before making a major purchase and you can get a 24 hour membership for $3.99 which is a worthy investment IMO to get an idea of the actual market value of a card before you buy.

[mintacular]

Yes, I do have a VCP membership and also recommend it for those buying GRADED vintage cards on a regular basis...It would be wonderful if that site put together data over the years to track general trends...

[GasHouseGang]

I think ebay has helped kill collecting in general. It's not their fault, but as Leon said, if you know the item will be there again next week, nothing is forcing you to buy what is being offered now, for fear you'll never see it again. Nothing is seen as really "rare". Maybe the brand new shiny cards that are 1 of 1 will be the only cards that hold any value in the long run.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by mintacular

Here's my question: If you had 100 grand to spend on cards and your primary goal was to purchase cards that would appreciate in value over time, would you buy pre-war tobacco cards, etc. or load up on high-grade HOF golden era rookies (Mantle, Koufax, Mays, Clemente, etc)??

If I had that kind of bank to spend on cards and was looking strictly for appreciation I would load up on prewar major HOFers in nice (not high grade) shape from a mix of popular (T206, CJ, Goudey, E90-1, E120-121), regional (Zeenuts, Collins-McCarthy, Neilsons [yes I know Canada is not a regional but the card availability is similar]), scarce (when I can get them) and 19th century cards. The only postwar cards I would even consider would be genuinely difficult cards--forget high grade--of major HOFers and short prints from popular regional sets (1960 Bell Koufax or Hires test Mays, for example; 1958 Bell Cimoli comes to mind as an example of the latter). Mainstream high grade would not even enter the picture for me, the reason being the initial premise of this thread--they don't hold up in economic downturns and you can't know what the state of the economy will be when you need to cash in. I know I can take rare cards and with a few calls arrange a series of very strong private sales, in any economy short of complete depression. The same cannot be said about PSA 8 postwar cards. I know--I've tried. Even pre-crash you were lucky to net 60% of SMR on them.

[mintacular]

You could only get 60% of SMR on them, but isn't that what you should have bought them for in the first place?? And let's assume you resold some nice Goudey's for 80% of SMR, but what did you have to pay for those card in the first place? SMRs inaccuracy of post-war prices and perhaps closer to reality prices on pre-war stuff, does not prove the point that pre-war cards hold more value than post-war ones relative to what you put into them...

I can tell you right now that if in a pinch I needed to sell my cards, I could set up at a card show & be guaranteed to complete sales on rookies of Maris, Mays, Koufax, etc. with ease. On the otherhand, if I had some pre-war stuff and set up, it would take the right niche collector/dealer to fork over several thousand dollars for those ones. JMO