Opinions welcomed and requested on the number of t206 Cobbs in existence.

[drc]

I'd heard the 2000 number before.

[jbbama]

I appreciate all the ideas and speculation (that's what it is) about the Cobbs, there are no wrong answers just opinions. Thanks to all who have responded.

[sreader3]

I will guesstimate as follows:

Green = 2,500
Bat On = 3,000
Bat Off = 3,500
Red = 6,000

The starting point for this analysis is my estimate of 3,000 extant examples of a typical T206 subject. I then added a "kicker" for a presumed higher than average survival of Cobb due to his stardom, then normalized the data per the relative populations of the four Cobbs in the PSA population report.

[tedzan]

Here is an excerpt from the Red Cobb survey thread. Back in April, I was asked a similar question. This was
my best estimate....which I based on a combination of T206 surveys totaling 40,00 cards....and, consisting
of 196 Red Cobb's. Therefore, I derived from this a factor of 200:1

Excerpt......
" Furthermore, Scot Reader, in his book "Inside T206", has a chapter on the "survivability" of the T206 cards.
If I recall correctly, he estimates approx. 1 to 2 Million cards. I think Scot's estimate is a good one.
So, if we divide 1 Million T206's by 200, it yields 5,000 red Cobb's. This number might sound high; and, I am
sure I'll be challenged on this population #.....but, that's my best guess. "


Scot....it's very interesting that 2 independent minds came up with approx. the same number of Red Cobb's ?

And therefore, given these 2 coinciding estimates, I think you're right on track with your following population
numbers of the other three Cobb's.



TED Z

[drc]

Talk to James Beckett for ideas. He was a statistics professor.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If there are 5000 Red Cobbs that means only 1 in 60,000 Americans, give or take, owns one; and since many collectors own multiples the number probably gets much higher. Does this sound right?

[FrankWakefield]

Peter, that sounds right... if red Cobb T206s are only owned by Americans.


But I suspect that a few are owned by non-Americans. And I agree that several folks own more than one.

So maybe 12 to 15 people in a city of a million own a red Cobb. Maybe 6 or 7 of those dozen or so have one of each of the 4 Cobbs.



I still think my low tens of thousands is about right. 12k to 15k... who knows?

[tedzan]

Sorry to disagree with you; but, a simple division of 300 Meg/5 K is very misleading.
First of all, 1/2 the population are women and 99.99% of them don't collect BB cards.
Then of the male population another significant portion of it doesn't fall into the age
brackets that would most likely collect vintage BB cards. When you boil it all down,
a fair estimate is that approx. 2000-4000 T206 collectors are out there. Some who
have (or strive to) complete this set and others who collect HOFer's or their favorite
players.

Yes, there are some collectors who have multiples of the Red Cobb, I have complete
sets of Piedmont, Sovereign, and Sweet Cap (Factory 30) which include 4 red Cobb's
between them. But then, I'm a very rare exception to the norm.

I think Scot Reader's 6000 estimate is very close to the actual red Cobb population.
And, his numbers on the other 3 - T206 Cobb's are very representative of what we
have repeatedly seen in T206 surveys.


TED Z