Hunt Auctions "Est. Price Range"

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Posted By: Jamie

I believe this is actually common practice in the art world. At Christie's, recently 2/3's of the paintings did not meet estimates. Christie's had already guaranteed money to all the consigners, so they got it pretty bad.

I wouldn't be totally surprised if the baseball card world moved in this direction in the future (I wouldn't like it either, just wouldn't be totally surprised). Sure hope it doesn't.

It seems like almost all card prices are getting bitten by the economy. On average, perhaps 10-15% off? My guess is that pre-war vintage material has actually been affected the least, and that modern cards will get hammered the most.

Once the cash begins to dry up, it could get really ugly. My mother works for Christie's, and she said that only stuff hitting its estimates were things that were really, truly rare. I believe that is the case for cards as well. Very rare items will always do a better job of holding their value.

On the plus side, I did some research on different markets that were kind of fringe markets of items that were sold at Christie's in the last month - rare guns, antique furniture, musical instruments, and ancient manuscripts. Like baseball cards, these are all items with very specific markets.

I noticed that most of the guns, furniture and instruments hit their estimates. The manuscripts even sold for far more than their estimates. This is probably a good sign for the card market.

A more interesting example is the African Art Market. A lot of the more valuable items hit or doubled their estimates, but the pedestrian items such as masks, which are a dime a dozen, went about 33% below their estimates.

This is what I believe will happen to the card market. I believe you will see cards like, say, a 1968 Topps Mickey Mantle PSA 8, of which there are 753 of in the population report, lose considerable value. Meanwhile, very rare cards may continue to be chased.

Just my opinion.

Regards,

Jamie