The Depression of 2008

[Archive]

Posted By: Solomon Cramer

If you're reading this board, and have an interest/collection of vintage pre-war cards, you're probably not going to be significantly affected by the $600 refund. If you have the money to buy, or frankly any collection of prewar cards, I really hope you're not behind on your mortgage!!

Getting back to the whole "depression" talk, what is the #1 reason people feel they are forced to sell their collections? It's when they're short on money. And the two primary reasons for that - #1 loss of job and #2 unexpected expense. The unanticipated expenses come and go in good times and bad, and with a UE rate at 5%, we're not looking at lines around the block at the UE office.

Almost everyone on this board, myself very much included, did not live through the great depression. Even when I look at my 87 year old grandfather...he was only in his teens during the '30s. You read stories and see movies, like the dock scene in Cinderella Man, of able bodied men lining up outside a workplace at 6AM, hoping to be picked for a day's work. That was a depression, and if we hit that level, I can assure you the baseball card market will drop beyond belief.

But in March 2008, I have a 6 ft "HIRING NOW" sign on the front of my building, on a busy state route, and an add in Monster.com and the newspaper, for completely unskilled labor (essentially washing cars), and I think I've gotten two applications in two weeks. No, I'm not paying a ton (starting @ $9/hr), but you'd think there would be a line at the door if things were that bad. We had two people leave, and I'm at the point of hiring the first person who walks in the door with a heartbeat, a valid driver's license and no felony convictions...those requirements are too strict in many cases.

I would wager, as a general rule, that most board members, and indeed most collectors of vintage (prewar and anything really pre-80) are generally better off and with more disposable income than the average Joe in our country. I'm sure, if things deteriorate, some collectors will feel the squeeze, but if things are largely contained, I don't think it'll be that bad.