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PaulPaulPaulBarry, I wish I knew how strong a candidate O'Day was. I believe he was on the ballot once before and got almost no support. But that was from the full veterans committee of 60+ Hall of Famers.
The committee voting on umpires is made up of the following: Hall of Famers Hank Aaron, Jim Bunning, Bob Gibson, Fergie Jenkins, Al Kaline, Tom Lasorda, Phil Niekro, Tony Perez, Earl Weaver and Billy Williams; former executive Jim Frey; current executives Roland Hemond (Diamondbacks) and Bob Watson (Major League Baseball); and veteran media members Jack O'Connell (MLB.com), Tim Kurkjian (ESPN) and Tom Verducci (Sports Illustrated).
My best guess is that these guys don't know who O'Day is or have any interest in voting him in. Most of the voters are Hall of Famers who have turned O'Day down before, not experts in 19th and early 20th century umpiring. Also, umpire Doug Harvey came real close the last two times. I would think that the voters might focus their attention on Harvey and see if they can pull together 75% support for him, rather than taking a serious look at O'Day.
On the other hand, the voters may have received research packets from the Hall of Fame, like the Negro League voters did. If those packets talk glowingly about O'Day, maybe he has a shot. But as far as I know, no research packets have been provided.
My best guess is that O'Day is not likely to make it. But I still don't know what inspired past Veterans Committees to vote in McPhee, Willis, Frank Selee, Ned Hanlon, and others. So maybe wierd things can happen when a small group gets together.