m116 price jump in the 2007 SCD

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Posted By: Bob Lemke

Using some down time while visiting my daughter to catch up on the Forum. I'll try to shed what light I can on the pricing for M116 that appears in the 2007 Standard Catalog. Let me make it real clear, that I was solely responsible for the prices that appear (as well as for all other vintage card pricing in the book). I can tell you that Sporting Life was one of many popualr vintage sets that were "targeted" for especially extensive price reviews for the 2007 book. That means, the ay after the 2006 went to press, I began to record actual sales prices for every M116 that appeared in major (and minor) hobby auctions and legitimate eBay transactions of cards certified by PSA, SGC and GAI in conditions of VG, EX and NM. For many star cards this translated over the course of a year to dozens of verified sales. When it came time to set prices for the 2007 book, those sales figures were used to arrive at new "book" prices.

Somewhere at Krause there probably still exists the greenbar computer printout on which the sales were hand-recorded month after month. It would be interesting if it could be made available in some fashion to see how current specialists working this set would have analyzed the same data. I do specifically remember thinking long and hard about the Cbob/pastel versus Cobb/blue cards. I didn't make up the prices, I just tried to interpret the market data. Actual sales showed that the pastel card was consistently sold for more than the blue-background in the same condition(s). If I had to guess (as I did then), I'd attribute it to the demand side of the equation. That is, many (most?) Sporting Life set collectors are working on a one-per-player basis rather than a master set of all variations, thus the pastel card that was historically presumed to have been the more common, received more action at auctions. To my way of thinking, those who bought the blue-backgrounds during that time got bargain prices that may well have already adjusted in the real-world market.

I can also tell you that M116 may have been the set in the 2007 book that received the greatest "market-timing" adjustment. I always recognized that a printed price guide was obsolete by the time ink hit paper, so based on my experience in the field, there was often some sort of "lead" built into pricing. Especially for sets that were newly becoming hot, as, I recall, was the case with M116 at the 2007 book's deadline. I also recognized that I wouldn't be around to price the 2008 book, and that vintage cards might not receive the same attention that had been the case in the past, so that prices in the 2007 edition might have to remain "current" for more than one year, so the "margin for growth" was expanded beyond normal.

I know Don Fluckinger has been on the Forum seeking pricing input from individual set specialsts, and I'd like to encourage your participation in that work if the Standard Catalog is to continue to maintain its worth to the vintage collector. In terms of discoveries, checklist additions and corrections, this Forum was my No. 1 source day in and day out. can only hope my successors are paying as much attention to your collective expertise.