$5800+ for a T206 common

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Posted By: PC

I think the distinction here is that by keeping the card, the old timer is, effectively, "willing to buy" the card for that price, not that he is "actually" buying the card by keeping it. But maybe I'm missing something (not unusual).

And Leon's opprtunity cost point is well taken ... if the old timer who paid $100 for a T206 common that might sell for $3000, what does he give up by keeping the card? Well, leaving aside sale costs, he currently has an asset worth $3000, with a $2900 gain.

If he doesn't sell and the value of the card drops in the future, part of his opportunity cost is the difference between $2900 and the then-current price of the card. But, one also has to take into account the lost earnings on what would have been the proceeds of the sale, which could have been more profitably invested. This "lost profits" cost accrues even if the card does not drop in value. Let's say the card stays at $3000 for 10 years -- the old timer has lost earnings on $3000 that he could have invested elsewhere for that 10 years (he still has the $3000, but it "could have been" a lot more at the end of that 10 years).

So, if the card drops in value to $1000, his opportunity cost from not selling at $3000 is $1900, plus whatever he could have been earning on the full $3000 in the interim.

If the card continues to increase in value, then the opportunity cost is (obviously) much less or perhaps nonexistant.

And what does this say about the buyer of the $3000 T206 common? I'm sure opportunity costs mean little to such buyers, but if you think about it ... the buyer has a $3000 cost basis in a T206 common. If the card does not increase in value, there is not only opportunity costs from lost earnings, but there is a real loss.

So, the lesson learned here for sellers is to sell at the top, cash out, and invest wisely. And, from the buyer's perspective, don't buy into bubbles (or, put another way, try not to buy depreciating assets). Sounds easy enough, but then again, this is a hobby, or an addiction, or whatever.