How much money is out there?

[Archive]

Posted By: warshawlaw

We've had a long run of really good auctions where great stuff is changing hands at very high prices and the nattering nabobs of negativity here are calling it a bubble that's ready to burst. Sorry, but I don't see it. Take stocks as a parallel; they can turn from good to bad faster than Aunt Sally's chicken salad at an August picnic but no one says not to consider them investments because they are volatile. Everything is volatile.

Some of what I am reading here is wishful thinking on the part of people who remember the "good, old days" of cheap rare cards and people handing you sacks of old cards and bidding them good riddance, and are being priced out of the market for the cards they want. Well, I wish we could jump into the way back machine and reverse some things (especially many aspects of the last 5 years), but it isn't going to happen.

Some of what I am hearing is just plain sour grapes. If only it would crash, they say, then the "real" collectors could acquire the cards they want. Well, you know what: anyone who spends big bucks on a collection of major cards is a real collector as far as I am concerned. They may be new to the field, they may be rich, they may even (gasp) not like what you like to collect, but don't trash them simply because they outbid you. Bruce McNall and Wayne Gretzky were not collectors; Candiotti is, even if his collection isn't your cup of tea.

Finally, for the finance types, there is simply no tit for tat comparison between cards and stocks, bonds, etc., because of the emotional attachment that collectors form with their collections They just are not the same and any intellectually honest evaluation of market prospects has to take into account the emotional factors involved. Cards are likely to be more sticky downwards in terms of pricing than a stock or bond because a collector can simply opt out of the market and hold his rare cards until he dies. The closest comparison as an investment is probably your house. If the market for your house sucks, you simply stay put; if it is booming, you may flirt with selling. If you really feel that the market has peaked, them you need to call up Mastro and sell out your collection. If that thought makes your stomach hurt, you are experiencing proof that the market for cards is not like the market for stocks or bonds and will not react the same to downturns.