My prediction is ...

[Archive]

Posted By: warshawlaw

Maris's great year came in the first year of an expansion of the league. Several AAA pitchers were suddenly major leaguers. Mantle got 54 in a partial season. What did Jim Gentile get that year, 47 dingers? It was a power explosion of a year with an extended schedule.

Moving on to McGwire and Bonds, there is one commonality in their great season hitting: incredibly compact, smooth, refined swings. I've (unfortunately) watched BB at Dodgers Stadium over the years and his swing has shortened and smoothed out, just like Big Mac's did. They are both swinging better than they did as youths.

Bonds has also cobbled together some really amazing stats that are indicative of a great hitter: OBP records. He is being Williams-like in his selection and care at the plate. If it isn't in his wheelhouse, he isn't swinging, period.

Next, do you really believe that strength emphasizing doping is limited to sluggers? How many pitchers are throwing in the upper 90's consistently now? Look at last year's Cy Young winner in LA: he was a pencil necked geek until two years ago when he mysteriously found 30# of muscle and a yard on his fastball. Is he juicing? Doesn't that cancel out the sluggers' juicing?

Finally, you MUST consider the methodology of pitching today as partially responsible for the records we are seeing. It is a hitters' game. We have a low mound, a narrowed strike zone as compared to prior years, and pitchers who are trained not to go inside and upstairs on hitters. Guys like Clemens are exception, when they used to be the rule. Can you seriously imagine Bonds stepping in with body armor and hanging on the plate like he does against Drysdale, Gibson or Sal The Barber? They's put him on his @$$ every time they saw him. Until the pitchers take back the plate in full and the umps recognize that a pitcher has the right to throw inside, you are going to see more and more cheap ship shot HR's.