Judge or Raleigh for MVP?

[bk400]

I'm torn, fellas. I think I'd have to vote for Cal Raleigh. Because he probably plays the most important position on the field. All the wear and tear and the focus required defensively on every pitch. But it's tough. Can there be a tie in the voting?

[bk400]

I know there have been ties in the past -- Keith Hernandez. But don't know if it is mathematically possible with the updated voting.

Anyway, Judge's season, even with the injury, is so remarkable also. In some ways, he's a victim of his own success. People expect him to hit 50+ home runs and bat over .300 every season.

[TUM301]

Going Raleigh using position as a really close tie breaker. Catching about 115-120 games and hitting 55’ish bombs is very impressive. Also, maybe voters have some Judge fatigue. Now the NL MVP will be interesting as well. Side note, and have to admit as a Sox fan pretty much had him written off, T Story should finish top 5 in voting. Think he’s the only AL’er with 25 HR’s 25 SB’s 90+ RBI in at best mediocre lineup.

[philliesfan]

A little better of a batting average and the choice would be much easier.

But, I would also go with Raleigh. The statistics are so close except batting average. But I agree that position played should be taken into consideration.

Raleigh is involved with every pitch in the game and technically a ball may never be hit to right field in any given game. I think Judge has 1 outfield assist while Raleigh has 20 runners thrown out trying to steal.

What Raleigh has done offensively while playing a more mentally and physically challenging position makes him the MVP.

FYI - I am a Yankee hater but an Aaron Judge fan.

[cgjackson222]

I think it gets decided in the final games.

Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star game, and if he dips into the .230 range, I think it has hard to hand it over to him.

But if he pulls up his average towards .250, I think he deserves it.

Won't hurt if the Mariners make the postseason.

Pretty amazing that we can even have this debate. In most years, either would be a clear winner.

[D. Bergin]

Judge has a big lead in WAR and crushes all the hitting efficiency statistics but has fallen off in the traditional Triple Crown stats he was pushing for before the injury. Good chance he won't lead the league in any of those by the time the season is over.

I'm a believer in the analytics but also have a very healthy respect for the difficulty of the catcher position and regardless of whether his defense is off this year, compared to years past, I wonder if it's just a statistical anomaly or if he has some nagging injury that is affecting him defensively this year.

He's always proven himself capable in that aspect in the past. He's not exactly Mike Piazza back there.

It's going to ultimately come down to these last few weeks and whether one of them (and their team) get on a hot streak or not.

As a Yankee fan I had no issue when Altuve beat out Judge in 2017, and I'd have no problem with Raleigh winning it this year.

[packs]

Raleigh has been amazing for a catcher and a switch hitter. A really cool season but not the MVP in my opinion. Judge is killing the ball all the same and putting up another 200+ OPS season. He’s got the video game numbers even if Raleigh has a higher counting stats.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by packs

Raleigh has been amazing for a catcher and a switch hitter. A really cool season but not the MVP in my opinion. Judge is killing the ball all the same and putting up another 200+ OPS season. He’s got the video game numbers even if Raleigh has a higher counting stats.

Last night's performance certainly helped him also.

[packs]

Raleigh has a greater total but Salvador Perez led the league in homers with 48 and RBI’s with 121 in 2021. He also hit 273 while doing it. Another incredible year from a catcher but he finished 7th in MVP that year.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I must be a relic. A .239 hitter even under consideration for MVP?? WTF?? Judge, clearly.

[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I must be a relic. A .239 hitter even under consideration for MVP?? WTF?? Judge, clearly.

I could look past batting average if Raleigh were an on-base machine, but his OBP is only .354. And if you're inclined to look at WAR, he's actually behind teammate Julio Rodriguez.

The MVP race shouldn't even be close.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by gunboat82

I could look past batting average if Raleigh were an on-base machine, but his OBP is only .354. And if you're inclined to look at WAR, he's actually behind teammate Julio Rodriguez.

The MVP race shouldn't even be close.

Depends on which WAR. In fWAR, Raleigh is right behind Judge and Ohtani and has 2.7 more wins than Julio Rodriguez.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bk400

Depends on which WAR. In fWAR, Raleigh is right behind Judge and Ohtani and has 2.7 more wins than Julio Rodriguez.

Judge has a 44 point margin in OPS+. Let's get real.

[packs]

Judge has an OPS+ over 200. It can’t be emphasized enough. That is incredibly difficult to do and you can’t not give him the MVP after he does it again. That’s Ted Williams, Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx territory. He leads the league in batting average, on base, slugging, OPS, OPS+ and total bases. He’s insane.

[bk400]

I certainly wouldn't be opposed to Judge winning, especially as he seems to putting on the gas these last few games.

I'm somewhat skeptical of the WAR stats myself, but understand that voters care. I mean, Ohtani's fWAR actually increased by 0.2 after he got torched for 4 earned runs in one inning a few starts ago.

As far as OPS+, I get conceptually what it means, but if someone can explain to me why that stat is robust, I'd appreciate it. It strikes me as one of those stats where they try to translate what balls hit at certain speeds and at certain angles would do in certain ball parks. Which kindly feels like a bunch of guys sitting around playing a Dungeons and Dragons version of a baseball season.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by gunboat82

I could look past batting average if Raleigh were an on-base machine, but his OBP is only .354. And if you're inclined to look at WAR, he's actually behind teammate Julio Rodriguez.

The MVP race shouldn't even be close.

OBP of .354 on a .230 Avg is actually incredibly impressive.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Judge has a 44 point margin in OPS+. Let's get real.

so playing catcher doesn't enter into it for you at all, just hitting?

[packs]

Positional dominance does matter but as I pointed out Salvador Perez led the league in both categories as recently as 2021 and finished 7th. Raleigh has more home runs but I don’t think that makes him the MVP over Judge, who is dominating the league in every other offensive category. Since I don’t think Raleigh is a Pudge level catcher on top of his offense I think his case rests largely on his bat. And I think Judge has the superior bat.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

so playing catcher doesn't enter into it for you at all, just hitting?

Not if he is getting points just for being a catcher, no. Is he an elite catcher like Bench or Rodriguez, if so I'd give him a few points I guess, but I have not heard that said of him.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Not if he is getting points just for being a catcher, no. Is he an elite catcher like Bench or Rodriguez, if so I'd give him a few points I guess, but I have not heard that said of him.

He did win a gold glove last year.

[icurnmedic]

If he wins another gold glove, that kind of changes the narrative. As far as Judge fatigue, I think it is both real and undeserved. He is nothing short of a class act producer on the field. I too never would have thought a .240 average would put you in the mvp conversation.

Side note: my first trip to NYC , first Yankee game on Tuesday, seen Judge go yard. It was awesome!

[bk400]

Originally Posted by icurnmedic

Side note: my first trip to NYC , first Yankee game on Tuesday, seen Judge go yard. It was awesome!

That's pretty sweet! Did you take the subway to the game? That can be a fun, uniquely unifying experience also.

[TUM301]

Raleigh 2 more bombs tonight so far. Has chance to hit 60 lead the league in RBI and maybe help his team win the division not just make the playoffs. Doing all this from behind the plate about 120 games is more than sufficient to win MVP honors.

[jayshum]

If Raleigh and Schwarber both win MVPs, it would probably be the first time both MVPs hit in the .240s. Other than pitchers, what's the lowest batting average for an MVP?

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by TUM301

Raleigh 2 more bombs tonight so far. Has chance to hit 60 lead the league in RBI and maybe help his team win the division not just make the playoffs. Doing all this from behind the plate about 120 games is more than sufficient to win MVP honors.

We are at the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit a couple more.

[Swadewade51]

Originally Posted by jayshum

If Raleigh and Schwarber both win MVPs, it would probably be the first time both MVPs hit in the .240s. Other than pitchers, what's the lowest batting average for an MVP?

Shohei batted .257 in 2021 but he's a pitcher too? So idk.

Next lowest is Marty Marion in 1944 at .267. Then Roger Maris at .269 in 1961.

[packs]

Originally Posted by TUM301

Raleigh 2 more bombs tonight so far. Has chance to hit 60 lead the league in RBI and maybe help his team win the division not just make the playoffs. Doing all this from behind the plate about 120 games is more than sufficient to win MVP honors.

Judge leads the league in runs, batting average, slugging, on base and total bases. That is how you win MVP.

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by jayshum

He did win a gold glove last year.

He not only won a gold glove, he was the AL Platinum Glove winner.

[D. Bergin]

These guys are making it tough to pick. Both on fire down the stretch with Raleigh closing in on Judge’s AL Record with 4 games left to play.

Meanwhile Judge becomes the 1st Non-Peds guy since Ruth to hit 50+ 4 Times in his career.

Judge has the Offensive Analytics and WAR metric heavily in his favor, and Raleigh has the traditional power numbers, offensive catcher records, and a reputation as a stellar defensive catcher (even though the metrics don’t quite agree for this year) in his favor.

[bk400]

The bookies have Raleigh as the favorite now, and those guys have the most to lose if they get it wrong.

For me, the catcher angle is the big tie breaker. Just for kicks, I tried getting into an ass to grass squat, holding it for 5 seconds, and then coming back up. Made it to 7 reps and then fell on my ass. And I don't have some guy throwing a ball 100 mph at my face and another guy swinging a bat at 75 mph near my face while I'm doing it.

[yanksfan09]

Judge dominated by a mile, head and shoulders above Raleigh. Raleigh had an all time great season for a catcher for sure, not trying to take anything away, But Judge has blown him away in almost every statistical category. Yes Raleigh has a few more HR and RBI but those are relatively close. All the the categories Judge is front by a mile! I don't get how its even a discussion. Judge fatigue? Yankee hate? That's all BS and an utter disgrace if they rob Judge of another MVP. He had another one of the greatest seasons of all time yet again this season. We're witnessing an all time great hitter having a peak/prime like maybe only a handful of others have had throughout history!

.331 compared to .247. That's an 84 point difference!! That's the same difference/gap of a .300 hitter vs. a pathetic .216 hitter! Worlds apart.

If avg isn't your thing these days look at OBP, SLG, OPS, WRC+, whatever Judge is so far and away better it's insane.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by yanksfan09

Judge dominated by a mile, head and shoulders above Raleigh. Raleigh had an all time great season for a catcher for sure, not trying to take anything away, But Judge has blown him away in almost every statistical category. Yes Raleigh has a few more HR and RBI but those are relatively close. All the the categories Judge is front by a mile! I don't get how its even a discussion. Judge fatigue? Yankee hate? That's all BS and an utter disgrace if they rob Judge of another MVP. He had another one of the greatest seasons of all time yet again this season. We're witnessing an all time great hitter having a peak/prime like maybe only a handful of others have had throughout history!

.331 compared to .247. That's an 84 point difference!! That's the same difference/gap of a .300 hitter vs. a pathetic .216 hitter! Worlds apart.

If avg isn't your thing these days look at OBP, SLG, OPS, WRC+, whatever Judge is so far and away better it's insane.

This. It's not even close, on the merits. WAR anyone? 9.8 to 7.3.

[G1911]

Wouldn't complain about either one, Judge is an all-time great bat talent and Raleigh has had a historic season as a catcher. 2 good picks this time

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by bk400

I'm torn, fellas. I think I'd have to vote for Cal Raleigh. Because he probably plays the most important position on the field.

While I typically lean to the fellow with the much higher batting average, I have to give the MVP to the catcher who hit sixty homers this time just because he's a catcher.

[Shoeless Moe]

Raleigh.

Judge plays in the 3rd ranked easiest park to hit Home Runs. And yes he hits plenty to RF. Seattle's field isn't even in the Top 10.

[Brent G.]

Cal — he is THE individual story of the baseball season for a playoff team. Is there Judge and Yankee fatigue — sure, because no matter what they do in the regular season and no matter how many billions they spend, they just keep choking when it matters most ... I mean that guy SUCKS when it's all on the line. There are show ponies and there are thoroughbreds — Judge has proven to be the former through 10 years.

[packs]

I don't see how you can be so dazzled by home runs. Judge leads the league in every other offensive stat and put up a 215 OPS+. That's a Ted Williams-level season.

[gunboat82]

Still Judge for me.

His OPS is nearly 200 points higher than Raleigh's.

His OBP is nearly 100 points higher than Raleigh's, and 58 points higher than the next-highest player in MLB.

He put up Bonds-like numbers, but without the steroid suspicion.

I suspect Raleigh will get 1st-place votes because he's a catcher and a great story, but Judge was simply dominant offensively. He was so far above his peers that Raleigh couldn't catch him in either bWAR or fWAR even with the position adjustment for catchers and Judge's below-average defense.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

Raleigh.

Judge plays in the 3rd ranked easiest park to hit Home Runs. And yes he hits plenty to RF. Seattle's field isn't even in the Top 10.

Right handed hitter in Yankee Stadium is not the easiest thing in the world. There's a reason why they're always looking for left handed pull hitters in that park. He certainly didn't get many opposite field HR's, down the right field line.

Also, Judges are usually no-doubters in any park.

Here's a couple graphics from Statcast that say Raleigh has been luckier with his HR's then Judge. Check out the "No-Doubters" percentages.

Also interesting the Park Specific adjusted numbers for Yankee Stadium and Seattle between them which is pretty close.

All that said, I'd be ok with either winning. Catcher is a brutal position, and Raleigh is no slouch in that area, even if his defensive analytics are down this year.

[nolemmings]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't see how you can be so dazzled by home runs. Judge leads the league in every other offensive stat and put up a 215 OPS+. That's a Ted Williams-level season.

Hmm, Ted's best season was likely 1941 when he hit over .400 and led the league in HRs. He did not win the MVP-- that went to Dimaggio. A never before 56 game hit-streak no doubt helped Joe, but so did the fact that he was a better fielder.

Raleigh did something never done before by a catcher-- the 60 Home runs-- and the 125 RBis are noteworthy too. He played almost 30% more games in the field than Judge-- 121 to 95-- at a much, much more demanding position that also required him to usually call pitches and field general the infield, and played defensively at least as well. FWIW, he even stole more bases than Judge.

I'd give it to Cal.

[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

Hmm, Ted's best season was likely 1941 when he hit over .400 and led the league in HRs. He did not win the MVP-- that went to Dimaggio. A never before 56 game hit-streak no doubt helped Joe, but so did the fact that he was a better fielder.

Raleigh did something never done before by a catcher-- the 60 Home runs-- and the 125 RBis are noteworthy too. He played almost 30% more games in the field than Judge-- 121 to 95-- at a much, much more demanding position that also required him to usually call pitches and field general the infield, and played defensively at least as well. FWIW, he even stole more bases than Judge.

I'd give it to Cal.

Fun tidbit though... Judge would have to go 0 for his next 184 to match Cal's batting average this year.

[packs]

Ted’s best season was 1946 when he led the league in runs, walks, batting average, OPS, OPS+, and total bases but not home runs or RBI’s. He won MVP with an OPS+ of 215.

Sound familiar?

Judge also became only the fourth player and really only the second player to Babe Ruth to have four 50 homer seasons this year. He is the MVP.

[nolemmings]

Originally Posted by packs

Ted’s best season was 1946 when he led the league in runs, walks, batting average, OPS, OPS+, and total bases but not home runs or RBI’s. He won MVP with an OPS+ of 215.

Sound familiar?

Judge also became only the fourth player and really only the second player to Babe Ruth to have four 50 homer seasons this year. He is the MVP.

Well I see you don’t really offer an argument as to why Teddy Ballgame failed to win the MVP in 1941. I believe the answer is because the voters believed someone else had a more special season, and did something that had not been done before that year.

As for Ted’s best season, in 1941 he topped the A.L. in every category you just listed for 1946 except total bases, PLUS HRs AND B.A. (he did not win B.A. in 1946), in addition to reaching the magical .400 mark. He also had better OPS, OPS+ and Offensive War in 1941 than he did in 1946. So I cannot agree that ‘46 was better than ‘41 where again he did not win. The reason he won the MVP in 1946? In large part because no one else stood out as having done something unprecedented that season to top Ted's raw numbers. Unlike this year, when a catcher hit more HRs than ever before (by 7) and reached the esteemed 60 total HR mark.

As for Judge hitting 50 Hrs for the fourth time, good for him, but MVP is about this season only, so your reference is of marginal value at most.

Vote Raleigh.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Judge's WAR is 2.5 higher. There's really nothing to discuss here, although of course Raleigh is the hip/cool/contrarian/anti Yankee choice.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Judge's WAR is 2.5 higher. There's really nothing to discuss here, although of course Raleigh is the hip/cool/contrarian/anti Yankee choice.

Depends on which WAR. If you use fWAR, which apparently captures catcher framing, Cal is only 1.0 win behind Judge and only 0.3 behind Ohtani.

The fact that different versions of WAR can yield such different results leads me to believe that WAR shouldn't be the be all and end all, particularly if you are a journalist who actually watches the game, as opposed to being the proverbial 400-pound guy in New Jersey who sits at his computer and just models the game in a statistical vacuum.

How many people can actually explain the components of a WAR calculation in any level of detail?

I was actually thinking that catchers may not get enough of a premium -- don't they have to prepare for opposing hitters in a way that is analogous to how starting pitchers need to prepare for opposing hitters? Doesn't that, plus the obvious physical and mental demands of the position, make them more akin to pitchers than to, say, right fielders?

[rand1com]

Raleigh is a good story. Judge is the MVP. Not even close!

[todeen]

Raleigh.

The Seattle Mariners started the season nicely. Jorge Polanco was a nice April story, to go along with Cal Raleigh. And then Polanco SUCKED in May. JROD was absent. The saving force was Cal Raleigh in May. And Cal Raleigh in June. Cal Raleigh for July, and then JROD started to wake from his slumber. I get it that Raleigh has less WAR. But Big Dumper carried his team. And instead of slowing down, he kept producing. And he is a high caliber defensive player. He's not platinum glove this year. But he was still good.

People can complain about not enough WAR, low OBP, low average. But Raleigh drove in runs. The most RBI in the league! And what wins ball games? Runs. You know who got on base, but didn't drive in runs? Joey Votto. And lots of people argue against Votto as a HOF'er. Lots of Reds fans think he was a clown.

Sent from my SM-S926U using Tapatalk

[SyrNy1960]

Originally Posted by rand1com

Raleigh is a good story. Judge is the MVP. Not even close!

Agree!

[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by todeen

People can complain about not enough WAR, low OBP, low average. But Raleigh drove in runs. The most RBI in the league! And what wins ball games? Runs. You know who got on base, but didn't drive in runs? Joey Votto. And lots of people argue against Votto as a HOF'er. Lots of Reds fans think he was a clown.

Sent from my SM-S926U using Tapatalk

If you want to focus on runs, then you should also look at actual runs scored: Judge: 137; Raleigh: 110.

Judge was busy getting on base for his teammates to drive him in. And he still had 114 RBI... 11 fewer than Raleigh in 7 fewer games.

By your logic, Schwarber is the NL MVP because he had the most RBI, even though Ohtani scored 35 more times.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by gunboat82

Fun tidbit though... Judge would have to go 0 for his next 184 to match Cal's batting average this year.

...and he just might in the Playoffs.

Judge has the old Kershaw reputation in the Post Season.
Can't hit, .205 in 58 games!!! And we saw his lovely defense in the 5th inning of WS Game 5.

Let's see if he turns it around or continues his futility.