What is the (predicted) future of card grading services?

[Hankphenom]

How about a machine that has AI fix any imperfections, undetectable by human eyes?

[conor912]

What if PSA started offering a card cleaning service? Wouldn’t that just be insane?!

[jingram058]

AI and the algorithms behind it is everywhere. It's not going to stop. It's only going to progress. It's scary, but that's how it is. It doesn't seem to me at all unreasonable to see it in card authentication and grading, sooner rather than later. I imagine the oil companies are trying desperately to sabotage EVs, and trying desperately to come up with some way of remaining relevant failing at that. I imagine the PSA monopoly in the same light.

[Huck]

I believe grading is here to stay. However, I did see vintage dealers with far more raw cards than in years past. Those who deal in new releases almost 100% graded.

Question, is each card unique like a fingerprint or snowflake? Is it possible to have identical cards?

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Huck

Question, is each card unique like a fingerprint or snowflake? Is it possible to have identical cards?

New grader TAG which uses AI to grade says that they can spot resubmissions of the same card due to fingerprinting techniques.

[raulus]

To answer the original question: what is the future of grading? Obviously none of knows for sure, but it’s hard to see a big shift away from the current regime.

Understandably, it’s temping to surmise that technology will have a bigger role going forward. After all, grading has been largely driven by human labor, and with machines destined to take over everything, it should only be a matter of time until they take over this thing.

At the same time, Snowman has written extensively on the challenges of leveraging technology to perform grading. Many of the challenges seem to stem from the difficulty in using images to truly identify the condition of a card, as well as being able to have a big enough data set to make sure that the technology can really differentiate between fake and real cards. Throw in the fact that computers struggle to do simple things that are important elements for us such as our tactile feel for thickness and surface texture, not to mention smell.

It’s also tempting to think that the many inherent limitations concomitant with the grading process will spell its downfall. And that’s still a possibility, for sure. But to date, the many scandals and grading failures over the last 35 years have failed to slow down this grading juggernaut. If those events couldn’t even break the stride of the graders, it’s difficult to imagine that further improprieties could possibly lead to a downfall in grading.

So as an earlier response noted: pain. Tech seems unlikely to have an impact, and the need for 3rd party graders is just too acute to get rid of them entirely, which is why any failures on the part of the graders are unlikely to be more than a speed bump.

[Exhibitman]

Easy answer: higher prices and worse service.

[Huck]

Originally Posted by swarmee

New grader TAG which uses AI to grade says that they can spot resubmissions of the same card due to fingerprinting techniques.

Thanks.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by Huck

I believe grading is here to stay. However, I did see vintage dealers with far more raw cards than in years past. Those who deal in new releases almost 100% graded.

Question, is each card unique like a fingerprint or snowflake? Is it possible to have identical cards?

Since the move starting with Upper Deck in 89 towards stock coated on both sides and with higher quality to begin with most cards are probably not unique.
Most cards before then and a few years after can be identified by the fibers in the cardstock. For some it's a matter of how closely you look. There are exceptions both ways.

[toledo_mudhen]

It's not Rocket Science and this IS the good ole USA.

I predict that we will see (sooner than later) the "perfect mousetrap" built by someone - somewhere.

[bigfish]

Originally Posted by toledo_mudhen

It's not Rocket Science and this IS the good ole USA.

I predict that we will see (sooner than later) the "perfect mousetrap" built by someone - somewhere.

Could always not grade your high end cards and sell them for less money. That might be silly though.