Honus Wagner t206 in Goldin tomorrow (6/21/25) - what will it sell for?

[Exhibitman]

Manipulation is a really loaded concept. It implies some sort of nefarious act. i don't think that's right. Goldin did nothing wrong. With respect to reserves, Goldin's rules are crystal clear on the point:

"All lots have a minimum bid designated in the catalog and the on-line listing. Certain lots may also have a reserve, which is the confidential price below which the lot will not be sold. The reserve may be greater than the minimum bid. At 10 p.m. eastern time on the day before the auction is set to close, a lot which has an unmet reserve will state “reserve not met’ in the individual lot page online. If the bidding does not meet the reserve at the close of the auction, the lot will be designated as “a pass, reserve not met".

If reserves are legal and the AH follows the law, it is fair, just part of the business. Nothing to see here, folks.

Also, not everything has to be an outright sale to be useful. We've learned that there is a ceiling on what a Wagner will bring in rough condition.

[raulus]

Curious what others think about the impact the reserve might have had on bidding activity for this piece.

My experience has been that a reserve will tend to have a chilling effect on the end of the auction. Once bidders see a reserve is in place, they have a tendency to give up, probably assuming that the reserve will not be met, so there’s no point in continuing to bid.

I’ve seen similar situations where the exact same card at the exact same auction house failed to meet the reserve at $200k, and then a month later sold for $400k with no reserve, simply because the action on the last day was so fast and furious with no reserve, and died with the reserve in place. And no, there wasn’t any big economic change in the interim, where we went from being fearful to being greedy within that window. So the economy can’t be the answer. And the 1-month interlude also wasn’t during the COVID frenzy where everything doubled every month.

All of which is a long way of wondering whether Ryan might have gotten his desired price without the reserve. Naturally, we’ll never know for sure. But it’s an interesting thought exercise, as well as a fascinating aspect of how bidders approach auctions.