Juan Soto -- looking like a bust for the Mets

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

The guys hitting in front of Judge most often this season are Grisham and Goldschmidt. Many have commented on the starts they’ve gotten off to this year.

Judge is again leading the league in RBIs and leading all three Triple Crown categories without Soto and without batting left handed, and he is good everywhere when you consider his nearly identical OPS at home and on the road. I think it's time to accept that Judge is the X factor. You are going to get better at bats with him behind you.

How does it help the opponent to pitch to Soto in a way such that he has better hitting stats, if Judge is coming up next? Don't you want to maximize keeping Soto off base?

[packs]

The first inning is the first inning but later in games if there are men on base and Soto is up with Judge on deck after him, the pitcher is thinking about Judge. If he gets behind 2-0 to Soto, he's going throw him an equivalent pitch as if it were 3-0.

Your suggestion also plays into better at bats. You want to get Soto out so you don't have to pitch to Judge. The best way to get somebody out who is known for being patient and walking a ton, is to throw strikes. Strikes are the better pitches to hit. But you're still thinking about Judge.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

The first inning is the first inning but later in games if there are men on base and Soto is up with Judge on deck after him, the pitcher is thinking about Judge. If he gets behind 2-0 to Soto, he's going throw him an equivalent pitch as if it were 3-0.

I guess I just don't see it, and certainly don't see how it's going to make a big difference in the overall numbers. If there are men on base, I'd be sufficiently worried about Soto that I am not going to start thinking about Judge, and I certainly don't see why you would then pitch to Soto in such a way that INCREASES his hitting stats making it more likely he too gets on base for Judge.

[packs]

You don't want to walk Soto and add to the Judge problem. That's why you pitch to him. If a pitcher feels forced to throw strikes, strikes are the pitches you want to be seeing.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

You don't want to walk Soto and add to the Judge problem. That's why you pitch to him. If a pitcher feels forced to throw strikes, strikes are the pitches you want to be seeing.

And yet look how many walks Soto had. AND, I would argue that that rationale might apply to a weak hitter, not a superstar like Soto. Giving him better pitches to hit because you are afraid to walk him seems unlikely to be beneficfial.

[packs]

He is universally known for having a great eye for the ball and he has huge power on top of that. You're suggesting that pitchers were still scared of him. I'd agree.

I think you're also misinterpreting what I mean by getting better at bats. I'm talking about a pitcher feeling pressure to throw strikes because he doesn't want to put Soto on base with Judge coming up. Strikes are the best pitches to hit. If a pitcher feels pressured to throw them, that can only benefit the hitter.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I dunno, if I'm pitching, I'm not worried so much about not walking Soto as I am about making sure he doesn't hit me, in which case I am not going to pitch him any differently just because Judge is on deck.