Your thoughts on signed HOF RCs

[dgo71]

I just think that on a long enough timeline something else will take the place of signed RC's. I don't necessarily think it will be quick, or anytime soon, but collecting tastes change over the generations. It used to be programs or GPCs, then it was baseballs, then 8x10s, then Perez Steele, now cards...seems like each generation moves to something new to claim as their own and the stuff that was previously collected becomes (though not completely undesirable) less desirable.

To the point of the RCs from the 1950s and older always retaining value, I do agree with that, but that is more a product of scarcity than new collectors clamoring for signed RC's of players that passed away before they were born. I think most people who follow baseball will always know Ruth, Cobb, Aaron, etc. but how many kids today can tell you who Bobby Doerr or Billy Williams were? And how many in 20 years will know them? I get autographs in person at my local minor league park, and the vast majority of collectors out there are in their 20's, and whenever I bring up a HOFer that isn't in the upper echelon, these kids have no idea who I'm talking about. The market for people collecting older signatures will eventually become very small (not non-existent, but small) as time goes on.

As for the pack pulled, patch embedded, factory signed RC thing, those cards also have the benefit of being genuine autographs (though a debate for another thread, let's assume this to be true). Also, there is a finite amount of them in the market and if the player becomes a star, like say Albert Pujols, there will always be demand for that particular card. In the technological era we live in, people streaming box breaks chasing a high dollar insert is hugely popular. This adds to the allure of these insert cards (like the Skenes 1/1 that was pulled recently) and just as this is something we would have NEVER foreseen in the 1980's, it very well may seem archaic in the 2050's. As a pack-pulled signed card, the inserts also cross over from the autograph collector universe to the card collector universe, whereas a card signed in person at a ballpark isn't something who is a "card" collector first would really be interested in. Either way, I wasn't really considering factory produced certified cards when I made my original comment, but more geared towards the current craze of getting a player's first card signed, in person or at a show, etc. That's actually a fairly niche group, which only recently (pandemic years) really got into high gear.

Another factor that will hurt as time goes on, is where someone would draw the line in their collecting pursuits. It's easy (enough) to secure a signed 1954 Topps Al Kaline (his one and only RC) but what does a HOF RC collector do now that Ichiro has made the Hall? Beckett lists 47 different cards as true RC's for Ichiro, many of them serially numbered. Do one or two of those RCs, like his Topps or Bowman, become the standard-bearer? Obviously a question only each collector can answer, but I believe the sheer number of different RCs more current players have will ultimately be the source of frustration for a lot of HOF RC collectors.

Anyway, just my opinion, I have nothing against signed HOF RC's or those who collect them. This is all speculative, and long-term and rooted more in just what I've observed in 40-ish years in the hobby, which is that, in general, what people value as the hot commodity in collecting seems to shift over the decades. I think HOF RCs will be no different. All the more reason to always follow the one and only real rule in this hobby, and that's collect what you like. Then it doesn't matter what value is assigned to the items, now, or 100 years from now.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by dgo71

I think most people who follow baseball will always know Ruth, Cobb, Aaron, etc. but how many kids today can tell you who Bobby Doerr or Billy Williams were? And how many in 20 years will know them?

It's just like the changing tastes of music (and music autographs/memorabilia) with each successive generation. When it comes to rock & roll, you can replace Ruth, Cobb, and Aaron in your statement with The Beatles (and maybe Bob Dylan), and Bobby Doerr and Billy Williams with every other band/musician. Beatles stuff will always be a sound investment; it's not going anywhere but up. But I guarantee you that every other rock & roller, no matter how huge they've been in the past 50+ years, is on the downslide. Even Elvis is losing a great deal of relevancy. Frankly, with Elvis, that makes sense to me. Beatles music and material aside, fewer and fewer people just won't care about the rest of it. It's really hard to fathom, but that's just the way of the world. I have a handful of truly historic and valuable rock pieces which I am stupid for not parting with today. I just can't bring myself to do it. Now is the time to sell, as the most interested people with the buying power are all senior citizens. The music and memorabilia of the biggest non-Beatles musicians from the rock era will continue to capture the progressively dwindling interest of later generations, but will ultimately nearly fizzle out.

Look at one generation prior: outside of someone like Sinatra, you can barely give away Big Band era material. There's still a somewhat strong niche interest in rare jazz and blues material, but that has been waning as well. Even Sinatra won't ultimately hold his value. I'll give a huge recent example of this playing out: not long ago, a manuscript purported to be the first draft of Hoagy Carmichael's "Star Dust" sold at auction. For younger people reading this, "Star Dust" was to earlier generations what "Yesterday" became to those people's children and grandchildren. It was the most famous, beloved and covered song of all time. Some say that it was covered by even more artists than "Yesterday". The selling price for this manuscript was barely over $10,000. The problem is that there are so few people alive today who understand and appreciate the esteem in which this song was held by so many. I'm a huge fan of Carmichael and his work, but knew enough to not bid on this cherished piece no matter how much I wanted to own it if I wanted to protect my money.