Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[oldjudge]

Nice to see the rally today but the important thing to remember is that this is far from over and no one has any idea what the ultimate outcome will be. I saw that Vietnam offered to eliminate all tariffs on US goods and the administration said that this is not enough. I don't know if the government wants a deal and, if so, what it would believe a fair deal is. I think that some of the goals of the tariffs will be achieved--some jobs will eventually return to the US, but I don't know how to compare adding a few million jobs say to having higher costs for several hundred million people.
China is the second largest holder of US treasuries (Japan first, UK third). Piss off China enough and this could escalate to a financial war and if China stops buying our obligations rates will rise and the cost of financing our 1.1 trillion dollar deficit will grow.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Nice to see the rally today but the important thing to remember is that this is far from over and no one has any idea what the ultimate outcome will be. I saw that Vietnam offered to eliminate all tariffs on US goods and the administration said that this is not enough. I don't know if the government wants a deal and, if so, what it would believe a fair deal is. I think that some of the goals of the tariffs will be achieved--some jobs will eventually return to the US, but I don't know how to compare adding a few million jobs say to having higher costs for several hundred million people.
China is the second largest holder of US treasuries (Japan first, UK third). Piss off China enough and this could escalate to a financial war and if China stops buying our obligations rates will rise and the cost of financing our 1.1 trillion dollar deficit will grow.

At the same time, it's not like China can just do whatever it wants.

All those dollars they make selling us stuff have to go somewhere. Either they can buy treasuries, or they can buy other stuff with those dollars. Or I guess they could convert those dollars back into 人民幣 (aka 元 or yuan).

Except that if they trade all those dollars for their own currency, then our currency would weaken, and theirs would strengthen, which makes their goods that much more expensive in dollar terms.

[oldjudge]

That is only one of the effects. The higher tariffs mean lower Chinese sales in the US and thus less dollars to sell. Also, one less major buyer of treasuries means higher interest rates which will, all else held equal, strengthen the dollar. How it all shakes out--who knows?

[Rhotchkiss]

It’s beyond exhausting. Regarding the thread, minimize the madness and buy cardboard. I bet this shitshow ends up being good for card values, more of a log flume than a triple loop, no gravity, upside down, roller coaster.

[BRoberts]

The many people, on both sides of the aisle, who choose to continually ignore the “no political posts” rule on Net 54 is beyond exhausting.

Given it is the usual cast of characters, again, both sides of the aisle, who have posted here long enough to clearly know the rule, truly makes me wonder why they can’t abide by it.

There aren’t many rules on Net 54, and it’s very easy to follow the few that exist. For most people.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by BRoberts

The many people, on both sides of the aisle, who choose to continually ignore the “no political posts” rule on Net 54 is beyond exhausting.

Given it is the usual cast of characters, again, both sides of the aisle, who have posted here long enough to clearly know the rule, truly makes me wonder why they can’t abide by it.

There aren’t many rules on Net 54, and it’s very easy to follow the few that exist. For most people.

Thank God, for once I'm not involved.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by BRoberts

The many people, on both sides of the aisle, who choose to continually ignore the “no political posts” rule on Net 54 is beyond exhausting.

Given it is the usual cast of characters, again, both sides of the aisle, who have posted here long enough to clearly know the rule, truly makes me wonder why they can’t abide by it.

There aren’t many rules on Net 54, and it’s very easy to follow the few that exist. For most people.

the post seemed to veer towards politics as politics are clearly involved in whats happening in the stock markets. And I jumped in. I certainly don't see modern material/card posts in the vintage section being ridiculed...and this happens all the time. rules are rules? or are there degrees of rules?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

the post seemed to veer towards politics as politics are clearly involved in whats happening in the stock markets. And I jumped in. I certainly don't see modern material/card posts in the vintage section being ridiculed...and this happens all the time. rules are rules? or are there degrees of rules?

It probably doesn’t help that just about everything is political these days. So it’s real easy to get there.

And sometimes we can dance around the edge of being political while not really fully crossing the line. But then someone sees others getting right up to that line, gets a little frisky, or is feeling particularly vexed about it, and decides to dance over the line a bit.

Next thing you know, Leon has to intervene to remind us that we’re over the line.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by BRoberts

The many people, on both sides of the aisle, who choose to continually ignore the “no political posts” rule on Net 54 is beyond exhausting.

Given it is the usual cast of characters, again, both sides of the aisle, who have posted here long enough to clearly know the rule, truly makes me wonder why they can’t abide by it.

There aren’t many rules on Net 54, and it’s very easy to follow the few that exist. For most people.

If we're discussing tarifs, the stock market, etc., then how do we avoid politics ? That's like saying "you can discuss sports cards, but not grading."

[Balticfox]

I'm fine with discussing sports cards and not PSA/SGC grading.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

If we're discussing tarifs, the stock market, etc., then how do we avoid politics ? That's like saying "you can discuss sports cards, but not grading."

Generally, if you think you are making a political post, you are.
You will get a PM if it goes too far.

If everyone is somewhat cool, it will be ok. I am part of the economy, just like eveyrone else, and getting my ass kicked back and forth in the market too. I can't imagine either side of the aisle likes a roller coaster ride with our savings. Let's just leave it at that.

My daily living monies are probably too close to my stock market monies. Not a huge issue... Fortunately, I have baseball cards as one of my asset classes (as do many of us).

And has been said, countless times, the market will come back, we just don't know when!

The question remains, do you spend more, less, or the same when the market goes down quite a bit? I tend to spend less but that is just me.


ps.. I like Styx the cat.

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[griffon512]

"China is the second largest holder of US treasuries (Japan first, UK third). Piss off China enough and this could escalate to a financial war and if China stops buying our obligations rates will rise and the cost of financing our 1.1 trillion dollar deficit will grow."


China's holdings of US treasuries have declined from $1.3 billion in 2013 to ~$750 billion at the end of the last year. I'm guessing they have been a heavy seller of US treasuries in the last week, which likely contributed to the spike in bond yields over that period. Bond yields spiking is one of the reasons why there is a 90-day delay in the announced tariff policy (with the exception of China). With $36+ trillion in national debt, $2 trillion in structural annual deficits -- including $1 trillion in annual debt interest costs (higher than we spend on national defense) -- it becomes even more expensive to be a debtor when yields increase. Expect the government to do everything in its power to avoid a further spike in yields, including aggressively buying US treasuries in the open market if any foreign nation is dumping a large amount.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by griffon512

"China is the second largest holder of US treasuries (Japan first, UK third). Piss off China enough and this could escalate to a financial war and if China stops buying our obligations rates will rise and the cost of financing our 1.1 trillion dollar deficit will grow."


China's holdings of US treasuries have declined from $1.3 billion in 2013 to ~$750 billion at the end of the last year. I'm guessing they have been a heavy seller of US treasuries in the last week, which likely contributed to the spike in bond yields over that period. Bond yields spiking is one of the reasons why there is a 90-day delay in the announced tariff policy (with the exception of China). With $36+ trillion in national debt, $2 trillion in structural annual deficits -- including $1 trillion in annual debt interest costs (higher than we spend on national defense) -- it becomes even more expensive to be a debtor when yields increase. Expect the government to do everything in its power to avoid a further spike in yields, including aggressively buying US treasuries in the open market if any foreign nation is dumping a large amount.

+1. The US has only been solvent because Treasuries have been a safe haven and, by extension, the US dollar has been the world's reserve currency. There is no amount of fiscal, budgetary or monetary policy that can rescue us financially if that armor is somehow pierced.