Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[D. Bergin]

Wow, this guy just figured out how to manipulate the stock market, with the ultimate insider information.

I'm sure he wouldn't use this to benefit himself and his fellow cronies.......would he?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Wow, this guy just figured out how to manipulate the stock market, with the ultimate insider information.

I'm sure he wouldn't use this to benefit himself and his fellow cronies.......would he?

Let's keep politics out, please. I have my own views too, as we all do. I am not necessarily disagreeing, or agreeing, but please take it somewhere else. (other members too)

.

[oldjudge]

Nice to see the rally today but the important thing to remember is that this is far from over and no one has any idea what the ultimate outcome will be. I saw that Vietnam offered to eliminate all tariffs on US goods and the administration said that this is not enough. I don't know if the government wants a deal and, if so, what it would believe a fair deal is. I think that some of the goals of the tariffs will be achieved--some jobs will eventually return to the US, but I don't know how to compare adding a few million jobs say to having higher costs for several hundred million people.
China is the second largest holder of US treasuries (Japan first, UK third). Piss off China enough and this could escalate to a financial war and if China stops buying our obligations rates will rise and the cost of financing our 1.1 trillion dollar deficit will grow.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

Nice to see the rally today but the important thing to remember is that this is far from over and no one has any idea what the ultimate outcome will be. I saw that Vietnam offered to eliminate all tariffs on US goods and the administration said that this is not enough. I don't know if the government wants a deal and, if so, what it would believe a fair deal is. I think that some of the goals of the tariffs will be achieved--some jobs will eventually return to the US, but I don't know how to compare adding a few million jobs say to having higher costs for several hundred million people.
China is the second largest holder of US treasuries (Japan first, UK third). Piss off China enough and this could escalate to a financial war and if China stops buying our obligations rates will rise and the cost of financing our 1.1 trillion dollar deficit will grow.

At the same time, it's not like China can just do whatever it wants.

All those dollars they make selling us stuff have to go somewhere. Either they can buy treasuries, or they can buy other stuff with those dollars. Or I guess they could convert those dollars back into 人民幣 (aka 元 or yuan).

Except that if they trade all those dollars for their own currency, then our currency would weaken, and theirs would strengthen, which makes their goods that much more expensive in dollar terms.

[oldjudge]

That is only one of the effects. The higher tariffs mean lower Chinese sales in the US and thus less dollars to sell. Also, one less major buyer of treasuries means higher interest rates which will, all else held equal, strengthen the dollar. How it all shakes out--who knows?

[Rhotchkiss]

It’s beyond exhausting. Regarding the thread, minimize the madness and buy cardboard. I bet this shitshow ends up being good for card values, more of a log flume than a triple loop, no gravity, upside down, roller coaster.

[BRoberts]

The many people, on both sides of the aisle, who choose to continually ignore the “no political posts” rule on Net 54 is beyond exhausting.

Given it is the usual cast of characters, again, both sides of the aisle, who have posted here long enough to clearly know the rule, truly makes me wonder why they can’t abide by it.

There aren’t many rules on Net 54, and it’s very easy to follow the few that exist. For most people.

[griffon512]

"China is the second largest holder of US treasuries (Japan first, UK third). Piss off China enough and this could escalate to a financial war and if China stops buying our obligations rates will rise and the cost of financing our 1.1 trillion dollar deficit will grow."


China's holdings of US treasuries have declined from $1.3 billion in 2013 to ~$750 billion at the end of the last year. I'm guessing they have been a heavy seller of US treasuries in the last week, which likely contributed to the spike in bond yields over that period. Bond yields spiking is one of the reasons why there is a 90-day delay in the announced tariff policy (with the exception of China). With $36+ trillion in national debt, $2 trillion in structural annual deficits -- including $1 trillion in annual debt interest costs (higher than we spend on national defense) -- it becomes even more expensive to be a debtor when yields increase. Expect the government to do everything in its power to avoid a further spike in yields, including aggressively buying US treasuries in the open market if any foreign nation is dumping a large amount.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by griffon512

"China is the second largest holder of US treasuries (Japan first, UK third). Piss off China enough and this could escalate to a financial war and if China stops buying our obligations rates will rise and the cost of financing our 1.1 trillion dollar deficit will grow."


China's holdings of US treasuries have declined from $1.3 billion in 2013 to ~$750 billion at the end of the last year. I'm guessing they have been a heavy seller of US treasuries in the last week, which likely contributed to the spike in bond yields over that period. Bond yields spiking is one of the reasons why there is a 90-day delay in the announced tariff policy (with the exception of China). With $36+ trillion in national debt, $2 trillion in structural annual deficits -- including $1 trillion in annual debt interest costs (higher than we spend on national defense) -- it becomes even more expensive to be a debtor when yields increase. Expect the government to do everything in its power to avoid a further spike in yields, including aggressively buying US treasuries in the open market if any foreign nation is dumping a large amount.

+1. The US has only been solvent because Treasuries have been a safe haven and, by extension, the US dollar has been the world's reserve currency. There is no amount of fiscal, budgetary or monetary policy that can rescue us financially if that armor is somehow pierced.

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Wow, this guy just figured out how to manipulate the stock market, with the ultimate insider information.

I'm sure he wouldn't use this to benefit himself and his fellow cronies.......would he?

If you don't think this is happening you're being willfully ignorant.

[BioCRN]

I just want to know how many eggs I can get for a VG common M101-4 and if I want to trade using a Maple Crispette or World Wide Gum will there be an extra surcharge on the trade.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by hammertime

If you don't think this is happening you're being willfully ignorant.

-
Just like its been happening in Congress on both sides of the aisle for years.

Interesting this time he posted "this is a great time to buy" on "X" prior to his decision so everybody had the chance to participate.

Strange times indeed.
-

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

-
Just like its been happening in Congress on both sides of the aisle for years.

Interesting this time he posted "this is a great time to buy" on "X" prior to his decision so everybody had the chance to participate.

Strange times indeed.
-

Blind trusts.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Blind trusts.

-
It's just a grift man, much like,

Congresses insider trading grift.
Bidens Ukraine grift.
USAIDs NGO grift.
California's Homeless Industrial Complex Grift.
Etc, Etc...
The only difference is this grift is raw and out in the open. I suppose the pearl clutchers prefer their cons presented in a polite back room forum where we can ignore/deny it while we live in our perfect bubbles.

Maybe, just maybe, this will bring about valuable conversations with Americans in the middle and institute change that doesn't include the far right or far left.

[Exhibitman]

Speaking of cats, my Walter got his first kill of the spring today. Big Norwegian roof rat. Broke its neck and left it for me in the front yard.

Hey, it’s better than politics.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Speaking of cats, my Walter got his first kill of the spring today. Big Norwegian roof rat. Broke its neck and left it for me in the front yard.

Hey, it’s better than politics.

Reminds me of a favorite bumper sticker I have seen that has a depiction of an elephant with a box beside it, a donkey with a box beside it, and a cat with a box beside it.

The cat is the one with a big check mark inside its box.


Brian

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Speaking of cats, my Walter got his first kill of the spring today. Big Norwegian roof rat. Broke its neck and left it for me in the front yard.

Hey, it’s better than politics.

Well done, Walter.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Speaking of cats, my Walter got his first kill of the spring today. Big Norwegian roof rat. Broke its neck and left it for me in the front yard.

Hey, it’s better than politics.

Well done, Walter.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Speaking of cats....

Why not? Here are some shots of Styx who was our most cooperative model:

















When it comes to markets, sometimes they go up, sometimes they go down. Any (honest) stockbroker will tell you that.