Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Yes, I'm sure it's that easy.

The problem with such an option strategy is that a big spread typically prevails between bid and ask prices on puts and calls. Therefore it's difficult to pocket the theoretically realizable advantage of that strategy (particularly after commissions).

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

The problem with such an option strategy is that a big spread typically prevails between bid and ask prices on puts and calls. Therefore it's difficult to pocket the theoretically realizable advantage of that strategy (particularly after commissions).

Pretty sure all of your income from writing options is also ordinary (or short term capital gain), so you get to pay ordinary tax rates. As opposed to generally lower rates for long-term capital gains.

And unlike income from selling cards, this income is definitely getting reported to the IRS, so anyone who might be tempted to use a little accounting legerdemain when it comes to the taxation of their cardboard sales, that's not a possibility here.

I suppose if your taxable income is low enough that your marginal tax rate is low, then that's not a big deal, but for some of us, our marginal rate is at or approaching the current highest marginal rates.

When you factor in state (and sometimes local) taxes, some of us are lucky enough to get to share 50%+ of our ordinary income with the government.

[Rhotchkiss]

The poll asks: Do stock market losses impact YOUR buying habits. However, Leon’s first post asks: Does the stock market impact prices of prewar cards. These are two very different questions. It’s very possible that the stock market could impact overall values but have no impact on an individual’s buying habits.

I feel the health of the stock market must impact the overall health of the card market - people spend more when they feel wealthy and spend less when they feel less wealthy. That said, cards are an asset class (not just hobby) and may serve as a haven (like gold) when the market is down. So I don’t think the correlation is that easy.

To me, it’s economic and political uncertainty more than where the stock market is going. Given current events, do I want wealth in stock, cardboard, real estate, cash, private equity, etc. Diversity is likely the smartest move, but I am heavy real estate - you cannot live in or off a card, stock, or cash. The big question is whether I invest in other countries, and if so, which one(s). Or put differently, when does it make sense to hedge against traditional US investments.

[Leon]

Duly noted and changed the post wording to more reflect the poll question.

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The poll asks: Do stock market losses impact YOUR buying habits. However, Leon’s first post asks: Does the stock market impact prices of prewar cards. These are two very different questions. It’s very possible that the stock market could impact overall values but have no impact on an individual’s buying habits.

I feel the health of the stock market must impact the overall health of the card market - people spend more when they feel wealthy and spend less when they feel less wealthy. That said, cards are an asset class (not just hobby) and may serve as a haven (like gold) when the market is down. So I don’t think the correlation is that easy.

To me, it’s economic and political uncertainty more than where the stock market is going. Given current events, do I want wealth in stock, cardboard, real estate, cash, private equity, etc. Diversity is likely the smartest move, but I am heavy real estate - you cannot live in or off a card, stock, or cash. The big question is whether I invest in other countries, and if so, which one(s). Or put differently, when does it make sense to hedge against traditional US investments.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

The big question is whether I invest in other countries, and if so, which one(s). Or put differently, when does it make sense to hedge against traditional US investments.

To what extent do you think that large cap US equities cover you here?

It just seems like most of the big companies do so much business around the world and have assets and operations all over the globe that you should be able to get decent coverage that way.

Of course, it's one thing to operate in another country, and another thing to be a local business that is near and dear to the hearts of the local populace and governing class. So there can definitely be some different profiles that way.

[Rhotchkiss]

Decent question. I suppose large caps have foreign risk mitigation, but they are still highly subject to whims of the US. Nevertheless, I am not really thinking stock. More direct investment in real estate or a foreign company. Or holding cash in foreign currencies.

[Republicaninmass]

Iraqi dinars?

Foreign large caps and Lat am plays

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I feel the health of the stock market must impact the overall health of the card market - people spend more when they feel wealthy and spend less when they feel less wealthy.

It is though a mistake to conflate the "health" of any hobby with the loftiness of prices.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

It is though a mistake to conflate the "health" of any hobby with the loftiness of prices.

Agreed.

[bk400]

https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumer...hare_permalink

I stated my views on Leon's question early in this thread. Key takeaway from the article above is that consumer spending from basic food and other staples to airline tickets is down substantially quarter to date, and it appears to cut across all income levels. Maybe baseball cards are different, but I suspect not.

In my mind, the argument for this recent period of volatility being "just another blip" are clear.

But I personally believe that the US equities market, as well as underlying consumers, are pricing in the risk that America's geopolitical primacy is coming to an end. That risk was priced in as zero from 1950 through 2024. The markets -- and the consumer -- aren't pricing that risk at zero today. So is it different this time? Who knows. But I sure don't like what I'm seeing out there.

[Yoda]

I recently sold a nice autographed Geordy Howe class 1 foto to a Canadian friend of mine. Do I have to charge him a tariff? Concerned Patriot.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

And unlike income from selling cards, this income is definitely getting reported to the IRS, so anyone who might be tempted to use a little accounting legerdemain when it comes to the taxation of their cardboard sales, that's not a possibility here.

I would have thought this was the first use of "legerdemain" on this forum, but according to search it's been used once before.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I would have thought this was the first use of "legerdemain" on this forum, but according to search it's been used once before.

Guilty as charged. It's one of my favorite vocab words. Right up there with omphaloskepsis and defenestration. And eleemosynary. Although I learned that one here.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Guilty as charged. It's one of my favorite vocab words. Right up there with omphaloskepsis and defenestration. And eleemosynary. Although I learned that one here.

How sesquipedalian.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

How sesquipedalian.

Good guess! But I wear size 14 shoes. So not quite 18 inches in length.

[brunswickreeves]

Touché!