Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[parkplace33]

Leon, I believe both the stock market and economy have impacts on the entire card market.

I talked to three guys that went to the Philly Card show over the weekend. All said the show was busy, but from their perspective, cards under $100 were selling, but people were leery about spending on the higher value cards. I expect the same
for the rest of 2025.

If you are concerned about the stock market/economy, you pull back in other areas.

[G1911]

It does at some point, but pulling back a few points off of new all-time high records for a few weeks is nowhere near that point. S&P is still higher than it was 6 months ago, and well over the 5,000 milestone it first hit 1 year ago. Dow is up a couple thousand over 6 months ago, down a couple thousand over 3 months ago. I'm not seeing down 25%, or cause for panic to cut out unnecessary expenses, but at some point there is unfortunately such a time for that.

[Exhibitman]

My research on boxing card prices over the years i've published my guide indicates a lag of about 10-12 months between a bear market bottom and a card market bottom. There seems to be a correlation but it takes a bit of time to pound the optimism out of investors and to bring them back out of their shelters.

Now that said, I don't really base my buying on the markets, I base it on the price. Nathan Rothschild said the time to buy when there is blood in the streets. I agree. I bought a lot of vintage cards during the Great Recession because they were so cheap (in some cases $2-$3 per slabbed PSA 8 HOFer) and sold them into the COVID run-up. I only wish I had purchased more cards in the trough sold more of my cards at or near their peaks.

[bk400]

I think the potential issue is the sentiment behind the stock market downturn. The current downturn is not purely a result of the broader US equities market being overvalued on a historical basis; there is a lot more going on -- and a lot more that we haven't seen in a generation or more.

Does this mean that people are more likely to splurge on a $100 card than a $1,000 card? Yes, I'd think so.

This said, I'd imagine that those who are spending upwards of $50,000 on a card probably aren't impacted psychologically in the same way (because their net worth is so high on an absolute level).

[calvindog]

I think it really depends on your age: if you’re retired or soon to be, the short term hiccups in the stock market can have a real impact on your finances and should spur cautious buying. As the markets have been on a pretty straight upward trajectory over the past 30+ years, most of us can deal with these (hopefully) temporary fluctuations. However, this is all based on your income obviously.

For me personally, I’d welcome a hit in card values so as to allow me to buy some big cards at a discount.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by G1911

It does at some point, but pulling back a few points off of new all-time high records for a few weeks is nowhere near that point. S&P is still higher than it was 6 months ago, and well over the 5,000 milestone it first hit 1 year ago. Dow is up a couple thousand over 6 months ago, down a couple thousand over 3 months ago. I'm not seeing down 25%, or cause for panic to cut out unnecessary expenses, but at some point there is unfortunately such a time for that.

Completely agree with this assessment.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by G1911

It does at some point, but pulling back a few points off of new all-time high records for a few weeks is nowhere near that point. S&P is still higher than it was 6 months ago, and well over the 5,000 milestone it first hit 1 year ago. Dow is up a couple thousand over 6 months ago, down a couple thousand over 3 months ago. I'm not seeing down 25%, or cause for panic to cut out unnecessary expenses, but at some point there is unfortunately such a time for that.

I understand what you are saying. But it is still a mental-thing to see your account at one number and down a lot (mine is down over 25% as I am all in, on tech).
I am not selling anything but am just more careful on spending too much. Everyone is different. A lot of people, maybe most, aren't sensitive to the market. I still sleep well as only approximately 10% of my assets are in the market. But still.....I look at what pre war cards I could have bought with my on-paper market losses. I could have had a lot of Ruths or Cobbys!

I need to see a card...

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Leon

I understand what you are saying. But it is still a mental-thing to see your account at one number and down a lot (mine is down over 25% as I am all in, on tech).
I am not selling anything but am just more careful on spending too much. Everyone is different. A lot of people, maybe most, aren't sensitive to the market. I still sleep well as only approximately 10% of my assets are in the market. But still.....I look at what pre war cards I could have bought with my on-paper market losses. I could have had a lot of Ruths or Cobbys!

I need to see a card...

+1. There's a large body of research that validates your point. We are fundamentally not 100 percent rational when it comes to most decisions, and losses hit us mentally a lot harder than wins.

[jimjim]

Originally Posted by bk400

+1. There's a large body of research that validates your point. We are fundamentally not 100 percent rational when it comes to most decisions, and losses hit us mentally a lot harder than wins.

Agree!! It’s a lot easier for me to list the ones that got away vs the good deals I have had over the years.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by jimjim

Agree!! It’s a lot easier for me to list the ones that got away vs the good deals I have had over the years.

Plus, why publicize the good ones? Bad deals get you sympathy; good ones just garner envy.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Plus, why publicize the good ones? Bad deals get you sympathy; good ones just garner envy.

Or condemnation, if people think you took advantage of the seller.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by Leon

But it is still a mental-thing to see your account at one number and down a lot (mine is down over 25% as I am all in, on tech).

Not wise unless you're in your twenties and thus very early in your income earning years. Quite simply, very rarely does one company stay the smartest in the tech business for long. Even Apple had a major downswing for more than a dozen years until the emergence of the internet enabled it to reinvent itself with the iMac.

Originally Posted by Leon

I still sleep well as only approximately 10% of my assets are in the market.

Hopefully you're not including your principal residence and your personal collectibles in that other 90% because one sells those things only in absolute desperation.



Incidentally the buy-and-hold stable oligopolies investment strategy that served me so well for fifteen years went completely to hell in the last fifteen months. I'm now hurting a bit and not happy at all.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Not wise unless you're in your twenties and thus very early in your income earning years.

Hopefully you're not including your principal residence and your personal collectibles in that other 90% because those are things one sells only in absolute desperation.

I actually like to believe in worst cases, for myself. Worst case is I move into a paid for, really nice house on a few acres, about a mile from where I live....and retire completely tomorrow. And I could live without ever touching my cards, savings or having anything to do with the forum monetarily.
I think I am ok. I give it some thought.
.

[Snapolit1]

A sustained period of a down stock market will eat away at year end or mid year bonuses for a lot of professionals, particularly financial types. I have always assumed that many big purchases are "bonus money" type situations. So I assume anything resembling a real serious market retrenchment will ultimately hit the vintage market hard. Maybe not immediate but it will.

[jbsports33]

I have done much better with lower end stuff the past year than higher end (above say 200.00) - before that selling was stronger for everything. Lower end collections are even selling, affordable cards are strong in both markets vintage and modern. I also see that to continue for the rest of the year. Thanks!

[Yoda]

Just a thought, but if the ultra wealthy are unloading their tech stocks, they are cash rich but immediately wish to put that cash into attractive investments. Why not collectibles, and in particular pre-War and post-War 40's and 50's vintage?

[rand1com]

The market goes up and down but if you have plenty of time for recovery, all will likely be fine as the market has been up on 10 year runs for many cycles.