Dean's Cards Discounts

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

So lets say this card is somewhat rare, has a decent number of cards on the registry, less then 20 total, and out of those only 5 are 4 or higher, 6 being the highest, and this card is the highest graded. It's a common, not a HOF player. Will it help those same player cards graded lower, and other common players in that same grade as well as higher or lower grades, along with HOFers or will the effect be ignored? It's a card that may shows up every four or five years at best, and many times longer, but until one that grades higher will be the best example registered.

I know it's somewhat subjective because each player's cards are different in total numbers, and grades. Just curious as how the market moves, and how prices tend to rise. It has to start someplace.

I would argue that what you're describing is not really a market, simply because the trades are so infrequent. So I think it would be a mistake to expect it to function like your average market that trades on a regular basis, like the market for a gallon of milk or a 1987T Mark McGwire.

Instead, you really have to live with the fact that it's a very different animal. For someone who owns one, it's difficult to value. For someone who wants to buy one, it's hard to say how much you'll have to pay. We can all probably guess at a range, but until one sells, we're all just guessing. Every once in a while you'll get a tantalizing glimpse of what the value could be when one sells. But the next day, that data will be old and cold.

And as a practical matter, price for items that are that rare and difficult to find will always be a function of how much a buyer is willing to pay on that day for that copy, and whether a seller is willing to let it go for that price. If you get a really motivated seller who has to sell today to a dealer to cover their mortgage, then they're not going to get very much. Or if the owner takes it to auction, then it might sell for a relatively low price, particularly if it gets overlooked by a lot of the heavy hitters. And if you have a really motivated buyer (with cash to burn) with no one really willing to sell, then the buyer might need (in effect) to be willing to keep bidding against themselves for a while before a seller decides that they'll sell at that price.

Perfect example of this dynamic for you. I have a card that is 1 of 4 that are known to exist (apparently an uncut sheet is coming to market soon, which could make it 1 of 5). Mine happens to be the highest graded, and barring some TPG shenanigans with the uncut sheet, it should stay that way. It's a well-known issue that is a bit of a grail card, so it's not some obscure and poorly understood issue. If you wanted to try to buy one today, you would probably have to be willing to pay a lot, probably at least 50-100% over what most of us would guess as the market price, which would be a lot of dough, just to pry one out of the hands of one of the current owners. But if one came to auction tomorrow, you would still have to pay a lot for it, but probably not 50-100% over what we might guess is the current market value, unless some other bidder decided to go nuts bidding against you because they had to have it.

And if you wanted to buy mine, you would probably need to be willing to pay about 20x the current market value before I would seriously consider letting it go. Naturally, no one in their right mind would pay that much, so my copy is staying right where it belongs in my collection.

[Vintage Vern]

Originally Posted by raulus

I would argue that what you're describing is not really a market, simply because the trades are so infrequent. So I think it would be a mistake to expect it to function like your average market that trades on a regular basis, like the market for a gallon of milk or a 1987T Mark McGwire.

Instead, you really have to live with the fact that it's a very different animal. For someone who owns one, it's difficult to value. For someone who wants to buy one, it's hard to say how much you'll have to pay. We can all probably guess at a range, but until one sells, we're all just guessing. Every once in a while you'll get a tantalizing glimpse of what the value could be when one sells. But the next day, that data will be old and cold.

And as a practical matter, price for items that are that rare and difficult to find will always be a function of how much a buyer is willing to pay on that day for that copy, and whether a seller is willing to let it go for that price. If you get a really motivated seller who has to sell today to a dealer to cover their mortgage, then they're not going to get very much. Or if the owner takes it to auction, then it might sell for a relatively low price, particularly if it gets overlooked by a lot of the heavy hitters. And if you have a really motivated buyer (with cash to burn) with no one really willing to sell, then the buyer might need (in effect) to be willing to keep bidding against themselves for a while before a seller decides that they'll sell at that price.

Perfect example of this dynamic for you. I have a card that is 1 of 4 that are known to exist (apparently an uncut sheet is coming to market soon, which could make it 1 of 5). Mine happens to be the highest graded, and barring some TPG shenanigans with the uncut sheet, it should stay that way. It's a well-known issue that is a bit of a grail card, so it's not some obscure and poorly understood issue. If you wanted to try to buy one today, you would probably have to be willing to pay a lot, probably at least 50-100% over what most of us would guess as the market price, which would be a lot of dough, just to pry one out of the hands of one of the current owners. But if one came to auction tomorrow, you would still have to pay a lot for it, but probably not 50-100% over what we might guess is the current market value, unless some other bidder decided to go nuts bidding against you because they had to have it.

And if you wanted to buy mine, you would probably need to be willing to pay about 20x the current market value before I would seriously consider letting it go. Naturally, no one in their right mind would pay that much, so my copy is staying right where it belongs in my collection.

So outside of cards with current comp prices how does the market roll? In your example why would someone be crazy to get a card for 20x the market value if only 4 exist? There can't be much of a real market value on it, can there? Is there market value on complete sets along with individual players that kind of keep things in check. Obviously something drives the market up, and down. Is there really any true indicators for value on the lesser known, and collected players? Isn't it hard to set a value, and a market? So it basically boils down to how much will you sell vs how much someone will pay. Then how does the market move with that type of sale? I'm pretty sure I'm getting close to buying a card that sold for far less then I'm going to pay, but there's no comp to follow.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

So outside of cards with current comp prices how does the market roll? In your example why would someone be crazy to get a card for 20x the market value if only 4 exist? There can't be much of a real market value on it, can there? Is there market value on complete sets along with individual players that kind of keep things in check. Obviously something drives the market up, and down. Is there really any true indicators for value on the lesser known, and collected players? Isn't it hard to set a value, and a market? So it basically boils down to how much will you sell vs how much someone will pay. Then how does the market move with that type of sale? I'm pretty sure I'm getting close to buying a card that sold for far less then I'm going to pay, but there's no comp to follow.

For the most part, nothing happens until an owner decides they’re ready to sell.

Even then, they might sell it as part of a larger lot, potentially even a complete set. So you might need to be willing to buy a much larger lot that happens to include your desired piece.

It also matters what type of format the seller wants to use. They could use an auction format, in which case the 2nd highest aspiring buyer gets to set the price.

Or the seller could list it on eBay as BIN or with a really high auction starting price. Then it’s just a question of whether anyone will pay that much. If the price is high enough, it could take years to sell, or might never sell.

If you’re on the buying side, then your only options are to try to find one at auction and hope no one outbids you, or else be willing to pay whatever it takes to pry one loose from one of the current owners.

But most of the time with an issue that rare, nothing happens and the cards just stay where they are.

About the only other element is that you might be able to use a proxy to help you to estimate price. A similar player from a similar issue with similar characteristics, assuming such a thing exists and has sold recently. But even that is just an attempt to guess at market value. And unless both a potential buyer and a potential seller agree on that being a reasonable proxy, then you’re left with just negotiating.

Edited to add:

A seller could also attempt to sell through a consignment. There are several dealers and auction houses that offer this service. Often the dealer or AH knows a lot of collectors who might be interested in such a piece, and can market it on behalf of the collector. This allows the owner to expand their marking efforts beyond the population they might reach on their own, even through listing on eBay. Naturally, this service only tends to make sense if the dealer or AH expects that they can find a buyer, and expects that the value will be sufficiently high that their commission will be worth the effort. And on the flip side, some dealers and AHs will also help buyers to find stuff, often for a fee, but also usually for stuff that meets a certain minimum dollar amount.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

So outside of cards with current comp prices how does the market roll? In your example why would someone be crazy to get a card for 20x the market value if only 4 exist? There can't be much of a real market value on it, can there? Is there market value on complete sets along with individual players that kind of keep things in check. Obviously something drives the market up, and down. Is there really any true indicators for value on the lesser known, and collected players? Isn't it hard to set a value, and a market? So it basically boils down to how much will you sell vs how much someone will pay. Then how does the market move with that type of sale? I'm pretty sure I'm getting close to buying a card that sold for far less then I'm going to pay, but there's no comp to follow.

Like raulus said, the market price for a rare card is whatever the owner feels will be enough to make him willing to sell it. In his case, that's maybe 20x what others have sold for because it's an important part of his collection and it's not like he can easily replace it. When there's a small supply, the owner sets the market price, and if there's a buyer willing to pay that price, it will sell.