New York Times Leaf Article

[yanks87]

This is interesting and I remember having a few discussions on here about this subject during the pandemic. How do you know that the blue hats were not a first printing instead ?? Also, do you have any idea why Leaf decided to make these changes ?? I was never in the printing industry, but I do have a basic understanding of CMYK printing. If they had rolled the black ink on top of the blue hat, then it would've given it its 3D shaded look (like the way most of them look like), but for some reason, Leaf decided to leave the black ink off the hat during that particular print-run, and again, I have no idea why they did this. Aesthetic reasons ?? Maybe trying to save black ink ??

And I gotta' get your book, man !! [/QUOTE]

Several factors pointed at the BLACK HATS being first. The strongest voice was that of the collectors that were alive during the first run and buying the cards. TedZ was the Rosetta Stone on this and so many others. Also if you look at the cards from the Antique Roadshow link, those were collected in Massachusetts, which is where the cards were first distributed. All of those cards, and all of Ted's had black hats, the removal of the black plate details made the cards brighter, and I am guessing that was direct feedback from sales or consumers. They also added color bars to close off the backgrounds, so it was a multiple plate change, making it truly a variation! Exciting stuff, I can talk about it all day long.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Sure, for something like 1962 Topps Sandy Koufax, that's obviously true. But it's certainly not true for T206 Eddie Plank or even 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson.

The percentage of graded vs ungraded copies of any particular card is largely a function of its value. The number of ungraded T206 Wagners still floating around is likely very close to zero these days. Perhaps there are one or three yet to be discovered, but the likelihood that there are dozens of them sitting around in attics is almost certainly zero.

There are still some collectors out there who, as a point of pride or preference, like to keep their prized cards like 52 Mantles and 48 Leaf Paiges raw, but there aren't very many of them left in terms of percentage of the population. And every time those cards come to market, they still get graded (or regraded). And any time you have a vintage card that is so valuable that it must be graded regardless of condition in order for it to be transactable on the market for anything other than pennies on the dollar of its true value, you can be pretty sure that the pop reports for that card reflect something close to it's true population, if not slightly exaggerating it due to resubmissions (which are MUCH higher than most people here realize). So this would work for something like estimating the true population for 52 Mantles, but definitely not for estimating the 53 Mantle population (there are other sampling techniques we could use to estimate that, but that's another discussion and one I'd prefer not to get into here).

And while yes, I agree with those who say there are still plenty of 52 Mantles out there to be graded, the reality is that those numbers are dwarfed by the number of copies that are/were cracked and resubmitted.



1952 Topps Mickey Mantle = 2863 total pop (2040 PSA, 673 SGC, 147 BVG, 3 CGC)

The 52 Topps Mantle likely has a very similar print run as the 48 Leaf Jackie Robinson. Maybe 10% or so higher at most.

First of all, mad props to you for posting all this data. It's very helpful. Thank you.

Everything that you wrote above is a very interesting topic and worthy of its own thread. Here in Toronto, we have the biggest card show in the country twice a year. I have these American buddies of mine that always come down, and whenever they do, they ALWAYS get a 52T Mantle ... or two. I also have some dealer buddies who live in Quebec and they find this card every now and then as well. And this is just Canada I'm talking about !! Imagine the US ?? Wayyy bigger population and wayyy more cards !! In the next ten years or so, I believe that we’re gonna’ see hundreds and hundreds of these cards come outta’ boomer collections. It's gonna' be wild, bro.

Oh, and in the last REA auction, I was checking out the Leaf Jackies and noticed how most of the PSA-graded examples had new serial numbers. It's starting ... lol

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Here in Toronto, we have the biggest card show in the country twice a year. I have these American buddies of mine that always come down, and whenever they do, they ALWAYS get a 52T Mantle ... or two. I also have some dealer buddies who live in Quebec and they find this card every now and then as well. And this is just Canada I'm talking about !! Imagine the US ?? Wayyy bigger population and wayyy more cards !! In the next ten years or so, I believe that we’re gonna’ see hundreds and hundreds of these cards come outta’ boomer collections. It's gonna' be wild, bro.

Oh, and in the last REA auction, I was checking out the Leaf Jackies and noticed how most of the PSA-graded examples had new serial numbers. It's starting ... lol

I agree! It's all about the demographics. Boomers fuelled both the card and comic collecting hobbies, and they've now begun to cash in before they cash out.

[LincolnVT]

Regardless, it’s a pretty cool set with some great cards.

[Exhibitman]

The first American Musial was the 1946 Sears postcard.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

The first American Musial was the 1946 Sears postcard.

I've seen mentions of it over the years but I don't think anyone has ever posted an image?

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

Regardless, it’s a pretty cool set with some great cards.

Wow !! Is that Jackie yours ??? Full-sized example with great centering !! Must be worth like 100k Usd.

I've seen some high-grade examples that are a bit "short" and it always scares me considering that Gary Moser used to love chopping these up (and maybe still does !!)

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

Regardless, it’s a pretty cool set with some great cards.

That's a beautiful copy! Someone did a really nice job cleaning/conserving that one! Looks great.

[LincolnVT]

Originally Posted by Snowman

That's a beautiful copy! Someone did a really nice job cleaning/conserving that one! Looks great.

Haha! It’s really sharp and nice to look at. Thanks. Nicer than most 7s, some 8s and even a 9 or 2 in my opinion. Tough condition card…like many in the set.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

Haha! It’s really sharp and nice to look at. Thanks. Nicer than most 7s, some 8s and even a 9 or 2 in my opinion. Tough condition card…like many in the set.

I'd say it's nicer than most 8s and 9s. It's certainly nicer than every 8 or 9 with a cert number that starts with a 1 or 0, which probably accounts for 90% of the 8s and 9s out there. Almost all of which would probably regrade as 6s, 7s, or trimmed today.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by Snowman

That's a beautiful copy! Someone did a really nice job cleaning/conserving that one! Looks great.

The scan is just very bright and so it looks that way. Here is a better one on the PSA website:

https://d1htnxwo4o0jhw.cloudfront.ne...4TLa6KqgaA.jpg

If you zoom in then you can see the oxidation, especially the top border.

It looks good.

[BigfootIsReal]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

The scan is just very bright and so it looks that way. Here is a better one on the PSA website:

https://d1htnxwo4o0jhw.cloudfront.ne...4TLa6KqgaA.jpg

If you zoom in then you can see the oxidation, especially the top border.

It looks good.

I might regret it, but I would trade straight across for my BB Portrait in a 5.5