New York Times Leaf Article

[yanks87]

Originally Posted by Snowman

The surviving pop counts of 1948/49 Leaf Short Prints is likely somewhere between 200-250 total copies of each card. Each SP was printed on the same 7x7 sheets, so the original pop counts were identical for all SPs.

The PSA pop counts for most SPs range from about 90 to 110 each. But those aren't graded often enough to get an idea of the true total population obviously. With the Paige being worth $20k+ even in low grade, nearly all copies have been graded at least once, with many of them having been graded multiple times. Are there still a handful of raw copies sitting in someone's attic that have never been graded? Sure, of course. But there probably aren't dozens of them floating around unaccounted for. The combined PSA/SGC/BVG pop counts for the Paige is currently 279 (193 PSA, 74 SGC, 12 BVG). It's safe to assume that each of the 12 BVG copies was sent to both PSA and SGC before being sent to BVG, so we can safely remove at least 24 from that pop report. Minus however many of the remaining PSA & SGC copies that were also cracked and resubmitted. Far more have been cracked and resubmitted than raw copies exist in Grandpa's attic today without question though. I would estimate that the true total remaining pop report today for the Paige is somewhere between 200 to 250 copies. And the remaining pop report for the other short prints is likely slightly less due to them being tossed in the trash at higher rates than the HOFers over the years.

The data suggests that there is approximately a 10 to 1 ratio for the full print run cards to the short printed cards. See counts below.

Notable combined PSA/SGC/BVG pop counts from the set:

Short Prints:
Satchel Paige 279 (193 PSA)
Bob Feller 199 (156 PSA)
George Kell 148 (111 PSA)
Dom DiMaggio 171 (124 PSA)
Larry Doby 215 (162 PSA)

Non-SPs
Ted Williams 2202 (1471 PSA)
Babe Ruth 2328 (1595 PSA)
Joe DiMaggio 2246 (1501 PSA)
Jackie Robinson 2676 (1849 PSA)
Stan Musial 1968 (1339 PSA)

This is great data to have. I geeked out WAY too much on this. Now if I can get you to “run the numbers” on the Kent Peterson variation, we can have an idea of how rare the plate variation second printings are.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by yanks87

This is great data to have. I geeked out WAY too much on this. Now if I can get you to “run the numbers” on the Kent Peterson variation, we can have an idea of how rare the plate variation second printings are.

Kent Peterson wasn't short printed, so his print runs should be in line with the other non-sp cards above with ~2500 +/- total in circulation today. But the ratios of Red Cap to Black Cap variations that we see in the pop reports should be fairly close to the true ratios. We could also sample Cliff Aberson and pool their ratios to get a more accurate estimate, assuming both variations were created together on the second print run.

Kent Peterson Black Cap = 246 (62.4%)
Kent Peterson Red Cap = 148 (37.6%)

Cliff Aberson Full Sleeves = 249 (61.3%)
Cliff Aberson Short Sleeves = 157 (38.7%)

That gives us ~62%, or ~1550 out of ~2500, Black Cap Petersons and 38%, or ~950 out of ~2500 Red Cap Petersons.

[yanks87]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Kent Peterson wasn't short printed, so his print runs should be in line with the other non-sp cards above with ~2500 +/- total in circulation today. But the ratios of Red Cap to Black Cap variations that we see in the pop reports should be fairly close to the true ratios. We could also sample Cliff Aberson and pool their ratios to get a more accurate estimate, assuming both variations were created together on the second print run.

Kent Peterson Black Cap = 246 (62.4%)
Kent Peterson Red Cap = 148 (37.6%)

Cliff Aberson Full Sleeves = 249 (61.3%)
Cliff Aberson Short Sleeves = 157 (38.7%)

That gives us ~62%, or ~1550 out of ~2500, Black Cap Petersons and 38%, or ~950 out of ~2500 Red Cap Petersons.

100% right, Peterson was not short printed, but, that variation represents a 2nd printing of the first run of cards that had changes made to the printing plates making them true variations. I have side by side comparisons in my book but essentially the late printing of the main 49 card have both subtractions and additions to the printing plates which create a variant version of those non short printed cards. For those who run down the rabbit hole, like I did, this variation would equate to higher value on a lower population of variant cards. SO, a blue hat DiMaggio should be worth more than a black hat, same for a red hat Musial or a blue hat Jackie. But that is probably an argument for another thread! Thanks for the numbers!

[yanks87]

Originally Posted by yanks87

100% right, Peterson was not short printed, but, that variation represents a 2nd printing of the first run of cards that had changes made to the printing plates making them true variations. I have side by side comparisons in my book but essentially the late printing of the main 49 card have both subtractions and additions to the printing plates which create a variant version of those non short printed cards. For those who run down the rabbit hole, like I did, this variation would equate to higher value on a lower population of variant cards. SO, a blue hat DiMaggio should be worth more than a black hat, same for a red hat Musial or a blue hat Jackie. But that is probably an argument for another thread! Thanks for the numbers!

34/49 of the main run of cards had some change made to the printing plate.