O/T - Juan Soto - 15 years/$765M with the Mets

[z28jd]

Two things here that most people don't think about. By the time the deal is over, $55M per year might not look that bad. Go back 15 years to the big deals and they look small in comparison now. His final years probably won't stand out as much.

The other thing is that I hate seeing these deals. I already can't afford to go to games, nor would I pay the prices if I could. The quality of play in baseball is awful now in my opinion. I can't tolerate nine innings of strikeouts and solo homers most nights. So they aren't losing me by raising prices, but you know this contract will have a domino effect. Everyone will cost more now, which will be paid by the fans, not the owners going into debt.

As a side note I was just talking to a relative about this subject earlier today. I noticed how few photos I saw of relatives at games this year on Facebook. I have a large family with many baseball fans who used to go to games. I mean I probably saw 100 games total each year between various cousins and such. Now I go to none. My dad goes to none. We went with cousins to games for years and they don't go. I think I saw photos from no more than five games this year. I checked some family pages and saw just two games. My brother used to do 20 games a year. He went to three this year and two were gifts. The other one was a playoff game.

I know MLB claims higher attendances the last two years, even though that is tickets sold/comped and not actual fans in the seats, but I dread where stadium prices are going in the very near future for people. I don't get the appeal to leave the house, while investing the extra time, once it reaches a certain price. You could buy a great TV, saves thousands and thousands and watch from home with surround sound and all the snacks you want at a fraction of the cost.

These free agent deals this year are scary for the sport's future.

[Jay Wolt]

Originally Posted by z28jd

Two things here that most people don't think about. By the time the deal is over, $55M per year might not look that bad.

But Soto will be 42 when the contract ends
so will he still be that productive in his 40's to justify $55 million a year?

[packs]

A-Rod won 3 MVPs during his mega deal with the Rangers. Would you consider that money well spent?

[conor912]

I stopped trying to make sense of the economics of baseball a long time ago. If they’re not a case study in what’s wrong with America, I don’t know what is.

[packs]

Harper signed his mega deal with the Phillies at age 26. The first year of his deal the Phillies finished 500. In 2021 he won an MVP, in 2022 the Phillies went to the World Series, in 2023 the Phillies went to the Championship Series and in 2024 the Phillies were back in the postseason again.

Harper has won an MVP, a NLCS MVP, and won 3 Silver Slugger awards in the first five seasons of his deal.

Is he worth the money?

[jingram058]

I hope he gets deported.

[John1941]

Originally Posted by Jay Wolt

But Soto will be 42 when the contract ends
so will he still be that productive in his 40's to justify $55 million a year?

He'll be 40 at contract's end. He'll be worth $55M/year at the beginning of his contract, and if inflation keeps pace with his declining ability, he'll be worth it at the end.

[Snapolit1]

So if I have this right, Juan Soto will make $785M in 15 years Elon Musk will make appx. $9 billion in December 2024.

I'm done with baseball. This is outrageous.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

So if I have this right, Juan Soto will make $785M in 15 years Elon Musk will make appx. $9 billion in December 2024.

I'm done with baseball. This is outrageous.

I'm with you Steve. But I've been done with baseball for a long time. I did go to game at Yankee Stadium last year. But that's it. I don't watch it. And I have zero interest in going to the stupid baseball country club in Cooperstown. Sooner or later the whole thing will come crashing down.

[GasHouseGang]

Maybe there are a bunch of extra incentives in Soto's contract, but Ohtani is getting $700M over 10 years ($70M a year) and Soto is getting $765M over 15 years ($51M a year). Isn't Ohtani still the highest paid player in baseball on a yearly basis?

[aljurgela]

Originally Posted by GasHouseGang

Maybe there are a bunch of extra incentives in Soto's contract, but Ohtani is getting $700M over 10 years ($70M a year) and Soto is getting $765M over 15 years ($51M a year). Isn't Ohtani still the highest paid player in baseball on a yearly basis?

Ohtani does not get his money today... he gets it at the end of the deal, so on a Net present value is is a little more than $400 million from what I recall.

[Fred]

Soto is like a little kid with his celebrations. He's an incredible talent, but you'd figure he'd come to understand that there's a time to celebrate. One example is his team was down 6-1 and he was celebrating hitting a double (nobody on base). There was a picture in the paper showing Soto celebrating. In the picture, the second baseman was looking at him and the look in the second baseman's eyes said "why are you celebrating, your team is down by 5 runs".


It looks like MLB team ownership (and probably other sports leagues) are taking a page from the US government economic playbook when it comes to mortgaging the future in order to pay today's insane salaries and deferred payments.

[sports-cards-forever]

Soto is a great player, but he also was hitting in front of Aaron Judge. He's not going to have that protection on the Mets, plus the pressure of a big salary. When he went to the Padres, he struggled with those expectations. He will have Lindor to take some of the pressure off, but I'm surprised that he made the move considering the Yanks and Mets were offering nearly the same terms

[packs]

I know you can't replace a Soto but I also think everyone in New York has forgotten about The Martian. He is very good and we haven't seen him unleashed yet either.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by packs

I know you can't replace a Soto but I also think everyone in New York has forgotten about The Martian. He is very good and we haven't seen him unleashed yet either.

Yankee hype know no bounds. Hit .179 last year in 56 ABs.

Have been hearing about this guy's alleged potential for a long time.

[z28jd]

Originally Posted by Jay Wolt

But Soto will be 42 when the contract ends
so will he still be that productive in his 40's to justify $55 million a year?

He will be 40 during the final season. He turned 26 about a month ago, so he will be 26 for all of the first season.

As for the deal being good in 2039, that's not what I was trying to get at. I meant that by the end it won't look like such a crazy deal in comparison to 2039 free agent costs.

Albert Pujols signed with the Angels 12 years ago for ten years, $240M. If Pujols was in the same exact spot in his career/age looking for a ten year deal today, it would be about $500M, yet when he signed back in 2012, it seemed like a lot of money. Add another three years distance for the Soto comparison. Who knows what his 15-year deal would look like during the 2039-40 off-season if he was in the same spot.