eras committee candidates baseball HOF

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by packs

But doesn't the point still stand? His 1973 season was not a great season. You can talk about his fielding and I would agree with you, but the same thing would be said of Omar Vizquel and he's not a HOFer, even before his off-field issues.

I don't think anyone can objectively say a guy hitting 251 with 12 homers and 50 RBIs with an OPS+ of 116 had a great season just because he led in WAR.

For comparison's sake, Rod Carew did not lead the league in WAR in 1973 but he did finish 4th to Girch's 19th in MVP voting after hitting a league leading 350 with a league leading 203 hits and leading the league in triples.

His WAR is almost a point and a half below Grich's but how could anyone say Carew had the inferior season?

My point is that there is more to a player's value than just looking at Home Runs and Batting Average. Grich's defense in 1973 was one of the greatest defensive seasons of all time, and arguably more valuable than any that Vizquel ever had. Vizquel didn't make many errors, but he only led the league in Putouts and Double plays once. Vizquel never led the League in Assists. Grich led the League in all 3 categories and and still had a fielding percentage of .995. When you have one of the best fielding seasons in the history of the game and are an above average hitter and get on base as much as Grich did, add it all up, and I think he did have a great year.

I'm not arguing Grich should be a lock for the hall of fame, just that he is more valauable than people like Tabe (and apparently you) would suggest.

[packs]

Per BR, in 1973 his offensive WAR came to 5.1 and his dWAR came to 4.0 but he's awarded an 8.3 WAR overall.

I don't know how those calculations are made, but dWAR seems extremely flawed to me and I'm not sure how much stock it's meant to carry.

I say this because according to dWAR, Don Mattingly, a 9 time Gold Glove winner and more or less universally acclaimed first baseman, has only negative dWAR for his entire career, which doesn't seem like a reflection of his actual play.

So if you put that much stock in dWAR, it appears Grich had an 8 WAR season. But did he? I don't know because dWAR seems so out of whack. If you do accept his 8.3 WAR as accurate and a reflection of his play, then I still feel like you are putting an extreme amount of stock in stellar defensive play from your second baseman in place of actual production. Which you can do, of course. But given his 19th place finish in MVP voting and non-selection as an All Star during what is, by WAR, his best statistical season, could reflect similar disinterest.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Mattingly 's DWAR reflects the position he played, not his ability personally. First base is considered a relatively easy position so first basemen do not start out at zero, they start negative when comparing them to other players. At least that's how I understand it.

[packs]

Would you say his dWAR reflects he was a good player or a bad one? Tough to find a positive in a negative, as they say.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Would you say his dWAR reflects he was a good player or a bad one? Tough to find a positive in a negative, as they say.

Most 1B have negative dWAR.

[packs]

But does that seem like it should be true? I'm asking you, not the dWAR creator.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

But does that seem like it should be true? I'm asking you, not the dWAR creator.

It makes some sense. All things being equal, I'd rather have a great SS or 2B than 1B. The specifics, I can't really speak to.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by packs

Would you say his dWAR reflects he was a good player or a bad one? Tough to find a positive in a negative, as they say.

Compare his D-War to other first basemen considered great fielders and you'll have your answer. Keith Hernandez may be the only positive D-War first baseman in history.

Todd Helton had 3 Gold Gloves and is -5.0
Mark Grace and his 4 Gold Gloves is -5.0
Paul Goldschmidt has 4 Gold Gloves and is -5.3
Steve Garvey and his 4 Gold Gloves is -11.7
Mark Texiera and his 5 Gold Gloves is -0.9
Wes Parker and his 6 Gold Gloves is -3.0
Vic Power and his 10 Gold Gloves is -0.8
Hernandez and his 12 Gold Gloves is 1.3

So Mattingly with his 9 Gold Gloves is right in that range with guys considered top fielders at the position.

Just for fun here are some disasters:

Dick Stuart -12.8 in a short career
Mo Vaughn -12.4 in a fairly short career
Dave Kingman -16.7 but almost half of his time was spent in the outfield with much less of a positional penalty.
Willie McCovey -21.7 with one season of LF mixed in.
Pedro Guerrero was an error in search of a home. He played all over trying to find a place to hide him but he was very negative at 1b in roughly 4 seasons he was -7.1

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Mattingly 's DWAR reflects the position he played, not his ability personally. First base is considered a relatively easy position so first basemen do not start out at zero, they start negative when comparing them to other players. At least that's how I understand it.

Yeah, its extremely difficult to have positive dWAR as 1st baseman.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by packs

Per BR, in 1973 his offensive WAR came to 5.1 and his dWAR came to 4.0 but he's awarded an 8.3 WAR overall.

I don't know how those calculations are made, but dWAR seems extremely flawed to me and I'm not sure how much stock it's meant to carry.

I say this because according to dWAR, Don Mattingly, a 9 time Gold Glove winner and more or less universally acclaimed first baseman, has only negative dWAR for his entire career, which doesn't seem like a reflection of his actual play.

So if you put that much stock in dWAR, it appears Grich had an 8 WAR season. But did he? I don't know because dWAR seems so out of whack. If you do accept his 8.3 WAR as accurate and a reflection of his play, then I still feel like you are putting an extreme amount of stock in stellar defensive play from your second baseman in place of actual production. Which you can do, of course. But given his 19th place finish in MVP voting and non-selection as an All Star during what is, by WAR, his best statistical season, could reflect similar disinterest.

Again, Grich led the league in Putouts, Assists, Double Plays AND had a fielding % of .995 as a 2nd baseman, and played all 162 games. This is why his DWAR was so high.

He didn't make the All Star team or finish high in MVP voting because of people like you and Tabe that only seem to care about batting average and HRs. But that doesn't mean he didn't deserve to be higher in MVP voting. There are many, many examples of MVP votes going towards undeserving guys. I am not saying Grich deserved to win MVP, but he deserved to be higher than 19th (he should have definitely been higher than Tommy Davis and Orlando Cepeda, for example)

[packs]

I'm not saying Grich was a terrible player, just that he was not a HOFer and even at his best, without a defensive metric it becomes very difficult to discuss him in terms of being a great player.

Great fielder, could take a walk, sure. I agree. But there seems to be so much more stock put in Grich's defensive metrics than I find reasonable. He played second base, not shortstop, not catcher, not centerfield. There are plenty of slick fielding second basemen but I don't think that turns them into HOFers. It barely creates HOFers at short.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by packs

I'm not saying Grich was a terrible player, just that he was not a HOFer and even at his best, without a defensive metric it becomes very difficult to discuss him in terms of being a great player.

Great fielder, could take a walk, sure. I agree. But there seems to be so much more stock put in Grich's defensive metrics than I find reasonable. He played second base, not shortstop, not catcher, not centerfield. There are plenty of slick fielding second basemen but I don't think that turns them into HOFers. It barely creates HOFers at short.

Not sure what you have against 2nd basemen. They are probably more important defensively than Center Fielders.

Here are the defensive adjustments per position as calculated by Baseball References WAR:

Current values (per 1350 (150*9) innings played) are:

C: +9 runs
SS: +7 runs
2B: +3 runs
CF: +2.5 runs
3B: +2 runs
RF: -7 runs
LF: -7 runs
1B: -9.5 runs
DH: -15 runs

So if you play an amazing 2nd base, you can be the most valuable fielder in your League. You may have seen that the National League Platinum Glove (best overall fielder) went to Brice Turang, 2nd baseman of the Brewers this year. But Grich's 1973 season was WAY better than Turang's past season.

[packs]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Not sure what you have against 2nd basemen. They are probably more important defensively than Center Fielders.

Here are the defensive adjustments per position as calculated by Baseball References WAR:

Current values (per 1350 (150*9) innings played) are:

C: +9 runs
SS: +7 runs
2B: +3 runs
CF: +2.5 runs
3B: +2 runs
RF: -7 runs
LF: -7 runs
1B: -9.5 runs
DH: -15 runs

So if you play an amazing 2nd base, you can be the most valuable fielder in your League. You may have seen that the National League Platinum Glove (best overall fielder) went to Brice Turang, 2nd baseman of the Brewers this year. But Grich's 1973 season was WAY better than Turang's past season.

Since Bobby Grich retired, can you think of a second baseman elected to the HOF for his glove?

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by packs

Since Bobby Grich retired, can you think of a second baseman elected to the HOF for his glove?

There haven't been many 2nd baseman get into the HOF since Grich retired. But Mazeroski, Schoendienst and Fox are a few examples over the years.

But Grich's offensive numbers stack up well against HOF 2nd baseman.

Here is the OPS+ of all 2nd baseman in the HOF.

1) Hornsby: 175
2) Lajoie: 150
3) Collins: 141
4) Morgan: 132
5) Jackie R: 132
6) Carew: 131 (but he played a lot of first base)
7) Gehringer: 124
8) Lazzeri: 121
9) Gordon: 120
10) Doerr: 115
11) Sandberg: 114
12) Billy Herman: 112
13) Biggio: 112
14) Frish: 110
15) McPhee: 107
16) Evers: 106
17) Nellie Fox: 94
18) Schoendienst: 94
19) Mazeroski: 84

Grichs' career OPS+ is 125, so it is better than 12 of the 19 HOF 2nd baseman.

It's also better than Jeff Kent's (123) or Lou Whitaker (117).

I wouldn't be super-excited if Grich got into the HOF, but I also wouldn't throw a sh*t fit, like I think you would.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

An honest, non-sarcastic question here. I don't purport to understand this WAR, even less so when it comes to my favorite player, Billy Cox, so forgive if my question seems ridiculous.

You will find multiple accounts from Cox' contemporaries that he was the best defensive third baseman in the league. Some even felt perhaps the best ever until Brooks Robinson came along. I even heard it directly from Brooks himself that he was of the same opinion (naturally, the ever-humble Brooks did not add the "until I came along"!). If his own contemporaries, in addition to the man who most people feel was the greatest say this, then why is Cox' WAR only 10.1? Yes, he was a light hitter. From what I have read here, however, being at the top of your game defensively should serve to boost up your WAR.

Looking at Cox' fielding stats, it certainly doesn't show him as a league leader. Could all of those people who would have had an educated opinion and witnessed him in action be as wrong about him as his pitiful WAR would suggest? I'd venture not. Single season WAR totals are awful. So, what wasn't he doing? Or, dare I say it, is WAR not an ironclad formula to fairly rate every single player?

Is it all in the fact that he wasn't prone to being played throughout entire seasons? It may be apples and oranges for all I know, but look at Riggs Stephenson. He's another player who had some fancy stats (of course, remembered more for his BA) but struggled with games played each season. Still, his WAR is 32.8.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by packs

Since Bobby Grich retired, can you think of a second baseman elected to the HOF for his glove?

Mazeroski who is a near analogue of Frank White and nobody is talking about putting White in.