Surprisingly low WAR

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Here's what makes no sense to me. On the four individual metrics that BR uses, he is pretty terrible, but when it comes to JAWS he vaults up to 32nd. What is the explanation here?

Hall of Fame Statistics
Black Ink
Pitching - 7 (440th), Average HOFer ≈ 40
Gray Ink
Pitching - 111 (232nd), Average HOFer ≈ 185
Hall of Fame Monitor
Pitching - 49 (290th), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards
Pitching - 31 (156th), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS
Starting Pitcher (32nd)

JAWS is the Average of career WAR and 7 year peak WAR for a player. The others have to do with things like leading the league in statistical categories or reaching different statistical milestones so Reuschel is definitely seen better by WAR than he is from his basic stats.

[Mike D.]

I think the guys like Reuschel are really interesting...WAR is just one measure, but it's generally a pretty good indicator of a player's overall impact, adjusted for era, park, etc. The players who don't make sense, either because their total seems too high or too low, are interesting to look at to understand why.

With Reuschel, I think it's a combination of throwing a lot of innings and being pretty good at limiting both walks and home runs that makes WAR "like" him more than you may think.

Also, WAR is a counting stat...BBR has him worth 18.3 WAR AFTER his age 35 season....hanging around a long time help.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jayshum

JAWS is the Average of career WAR and 7 year peak WAR for a player. The others have to do with things like leading the league in statistical categories or reaching different statistical milestones so Reuschel is definitely seen better by WAR than he is from his basic stats.

I would bet we can't find another example with THAT huge a disparity.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I would bet we can't find another example with THAT huge a disparity.

Buddy Bell (shown below) was a defense-first player, so he had almost no black ink, but a good JAWS.
Ozzie Smith and Bill Dahlen are two other examples.

[brianp-beme]

Do your life a favor...listen and take notes when Freckle Faced Boy Prophet Who Wears Glove as Hat speaks. But it is imperative that while within his presence the rubber bands must, under no circumstances, ever be mentioned.

Brian

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Attachment 628506

gloveashatboyprophet.jpg

[etsmith]

WAR is a good stat but only in combination with other stats. Taken by itself it's not reliable, as shown by many of the examples above.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Bumping this to add another -- Juan Gonzalez, only 38.7. Leaving aside whether he juiced, a dominant slugger for quite a stretch.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Bumping this to add another -- Juan Gonzalez, only 38.7. Leaving aside whether he juiced, a dominant slugger for quite a stretch.

yeah but a dominant slugger in an era where EVERYONE was a slugger to some degree. If he had put up those numbers in the 1970's and early 80's when 35 HR often led the league his WAR would be WAY higher.

[Mike D.]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

yeah but a dominant slugger in an era where EVERYONE was a slugger to some degree. If he had put up those numbers in the 1970's and early 80's when 35 HR often led the league his WAR would be WAY higher.

Yes, the era is a big part of it. As is poor defense and baserunning. Also, he only had 8 seasons of 130 games played, which I imagine contributed as WAR is a counting stat.

[perezfan]

Couple of observations, having lived in SoCal during Garvey's entire career, and watching zillions of Dodgers games...

He got a lot of cheap hits (seeing-eye pop-ups, bloopers, Texas Leaguers, etc.) He had very strong forearms, so guess we should credit him for being able to "muscle" the ball into the outfield when he got jammed.

He was the best I've ever seen at continually scooping bad throws from Cey, Lopes, Russell and Co. He saved many an error by having their backs. He was a very steadying presence, defensively.

FWIW, I despised him and his squeaky clean image. We were displaced Reds fans living in OC. But we were just kids, and now I truly respect what he did. I don't think he'll ever enter the hall, as his numbers fall pretty far short of HOF status for a First Baseman. But he was still an excellent player.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Are there any other players with six 200 hit seasons whose numbers don't even put them close? Strange case.

PS Michael Young I think had six.

[packs]

Juan Pierre had four and just missed a fifth with 196. Not a guy you think of as a hit king either.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Michael Young has a WAR under 25 (right up there with Chico Cardenas and Gene Alley) despite 6 200 hit seasons and a .300 LIFETIME average. LOL.

[Mungo Hungo]

Jesus Alou played 15 years, had a .280 batting average and more than 1200 hits -- but a WAR of just 0.8.

When you look at the other numbers, it makes sense. He had very little power, rarely walked, didn't steal bases and was sub-par defensively. The only thing he did well -- hitting singles -- made him look good in some of the traditional stats, but that's not nearly enough for a good WAR.

You have to wonder whether any other position players have played for 15 years without reaching even a 1.0 WAR.

[tod41]

Originally Posted by Mungo Hungo

Jesus Alou played 15 years, had a .280 batting average and more than 1200 hits -- but a WAR of just 0.8.

When you look at the other numbers, it makes sense. He had very little power, rarely walked, didn't steal bases and was sub-par defensively. The only thing he did well -- hitting singles -- made him look good in some of the traditional stats, but that's not nearly enough for a good WAR.

You have to wonder whether any other position players have played for 15 years without reaching even a 1.0 WAR.

Jerry Morales - 15 years - primarily with the Cubs - made one all star team - A career negative 2 war.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Here's an ignorant question about WAR -- for all of baseball, is it a zero sum game such that all players collectively add to zero?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Here's an ignorant question about WAR -- for all of baseball, is it a zero sum game such that all players collectively add to zero?

No, because the root comparison is the performance of a fictional hypothetical minor leaguer, not league average.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Here's an ignorant question about WAR -- for all of baseball, is it a zero sum game such that all players collectively add to zero?

Maybe WAA (Wins above Average) would net to zero?

[packs]

He's famously terrible but Bill Bergen played 11 seasons and appeared in more than 900 games. He finished his career as a 170 hitter with a 21 OPS+ and a career WAR of -6.9.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by packs

He's famously terrible but Bill Bergen played 11 seasons and appeared in more than 900 games. He finished his career as a 170 hitter with a 21 OPS+ and a career WAR of -6.9.

Amazing!