Final UPDATE. PSA Guarantee on a doctored card - Actual good news this time

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Most people don't realize the implications of what they're calling for. They also don't understand the scope of the problem. If PSA ends up having to pay out on even 1% of the claims that people are calling for, then PSA would just get rid of their guarantee program altogether, otherwise they'd be forced to close the doors. Then what? Where do we go from there? The other grading companies can't detect this stuff either. And they don't have guarantees anyhow.

Yeah, but do you think if they repudiated their guarantee, they would still be able to stay in business? And it's a serious question, I want to know what you think. You're their customer, not me.

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[raulus]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Yeah, but do you think if they repudiated their guarantee, they would still be able to stay in business? And it's a serious question, I want to know what you think. You're their customer, not me.

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SGC doesn’t seem to have suffered any negative repercussions when they quietly decided to drop their guarantee.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

SGC doesn’t seem to have suffered any negative repercussions when they quietly decided to drop their guarantee.

Nobody cares.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nobody cares.

If they discover they have a doctored high value card in their collection, they will probably care a lot more.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

If they discover they have a doctored high value card in their collection, they will probably care a lot more.

Meh -- most would just flip it if it bothered them and not go to war with PSA even with the guarantee. And it wouldn't bother most.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by raulus

If they discover they have a doctored high value card in their collection, they will probably care a lot more.

Not when they can just turn around and resell it though. That's why I was jokingly saying earlier for you to just sell me the Mays cheap and that I'd be happy to resell it for full market prices. These cards are EVERYWHERE. It's our entire hobby. It's not just a few cards here or there or even a few thousand cards or even a few hundred thousand cards. It's millions. Many millions. If you want to collect vintage cards then you can't escape it. Especially if you try to compete on the registry. Guys like Marshall Fogel's and Nat Turners' entire vintage collections are altered or improved in some way or another. And even the lower grade stuff gets improved as well. There is an army of people that compete for cards that have potential to be improved. A lot of the extreme outlier sales that seem outrageous or that people claim are shilled cards are actually cards that the buyers know they can get to bump 2 or more grades. I see it all the time. Someone will post a card on social media and everyone chimes in with "fake sale", then I look at the card and immediately spot why it sold for as much as it did. A lot of flaws can be fixed. Undetectably fixed. It is what it is.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Not when they can just turn around and resell it though. That's why I was jokingly saying earlier for you to just sell me the Mays cheap and that I'd be happy to resell it for full market prices.

I guess I’m not convinced that it would sell for full market price if it’s in the Tiffany Cards database. But perhaps I’m overestimating the number of people who are aware of the database.

Or I just figure that a number of collectors who are familiar with the database would be quick to jump on such a listing and inform the auction house that they’re trafficking in doctored cards, and demand that the listing either be removed or the doctoring be disclosed.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

I guess I’m not convinced that it would sell for full market price if it’s in the Tiffany Cards database. But perhaps I’m overestimating the number of people who are aware of the database.

Or I just figure that a number of collectors who are familiar with the database would be quick to jump on such a listing and inform the auction house that they’re trafficking in doctored cards, and demand that the listing either be removed or the doctoring be disclosed.

No disrespect to the great effort involved in that database, but I am guessing very few people check it before bidding on anything.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by raulus

I guess I’m not convinced that it would sell for full market price if it’s in the Tiffany Cards database. But perhaps I’m overestimating the number of people who are aware of the database.

Or I just figure that a number of collectors who are familiar with the database would be quick to jump on such a listing and inform the auction house that they’re trafficking in doctored cards, and demand that the listing either be removed or the doctoring be disclosed.

LOL - Nobody cares about that database. Even the majority of people who are aware of it still probably don't care.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Not when they can just turn around and resell it though. That's why I was jokingly saying earlier for you to just sell me the Mays cheap and that I'd be happy to resell it for full market prices. These cards are EVERYWHERE. It's our entire hobby. It's not just a few cards here or there or even a few thousand cards or even a few hundred thousand cards. It's millions. Many millions. If you want to collect vintage cards then you can't escape it. Especially if you try to compete on the registry. Guys like Marshall Fogel's and Nat Turners' entire vintage collections are altered or improved in some way or another. And even the lower grade stuff gets improved as well. There is an army of people that compete for cards that have potential to be improved. A lot of the extreme outlier sales that seem outrageous or that people claim are shilled cards are actually cards that the buyers know they can get to bump 2 or more grades. I see it all the time. Someone will post a card on social media and everyone chimes in with "fake sale", then I look at the card and immediately spot why it sold for as much as it did. A lot of flaws can be fixed. Undetectably fixed. It is what it is.

Truth….this is the reality of it. The truth can be painful but at least it’s honest.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Nobody cares about SGC

Fixed it for ya!

[raulus]

It’s official now. They even kept the same cert.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

Yeah, but do you think if they repudiated their guarantee, they would still be able to stay in business? And it's a serious question, I want to know what you think. You're their customer, not me.

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I think if PSA were to drop their guarantee tomorrow, it wouldn't affect them at all. Literally not one bit. And I'm usually hesitant about claims like that because I know how much a very small change in one variable can impact your bottom line (that's largely what statistical modeling is all about).

SGC dropped their guarantee and pentupled their business shortly after despite their biggest competitor proudly flaunting theirs. And buyers clearly don't care, as cards in SGC holders have set new records multiple times since then.

Ultimately, it's just not something the market cares enough about. They care more about hammer prices, accurate grades, and customer experience. Hence SGC has been chipping away at PSA's lead for the past few years.

Nobody looks at two of the same card, one in a PSA holder and one in an SGC holder and then says to themselves that they'd rather have the PSA because of the guarantee. They will buy whichever one looks better and is the better deal. Every time. And even if they have identical eye appeal and are the same price, they're still not using the guarantee as the tie breaker.