What is the current state of prices??

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

There are 235, 1921 exhibits Ruth’s on the combined PSA/SGC pop report. I bet a sizable minority (20%) are crossovers, and certainly others exist that are not on the pop reports. So if we take the combined pop report as a fairly decent estimate of surviving examples (offsetting crossovers with ungraded), 3 in one auction is 1.28% of the entire population.

By contrast, the PSA pop report shows 2,609 graded red Cobbs (ignoring backs); SGC’s pop report is a major pain and I cannot tell how many red Cobbs have been graded without searching every year 1909-11 and all applicable backs. So looking at the PSA pop alone, t206 red Cobbs are 11.1x more common the 1921 exhibit Ruth’s. Let’s assume that SGC has graded 1500 red Cobbs, the difference becomes 17.5x.

Based on this comparison, three 1921 Ruth exhibits is equal to 52.5, t206 red Cobbs. 52.5 red Cobbs in one auction seems excessive. Yet 3 Ruth Exhibits (especially if different grades/condition and grading companies) seems much more ok.

And this is the garbage that gets posted at midnight when one cannot sleep bc they add thinking of cards!

The 21 Exhibits Ruth is the most estheticaly pleasing early Ruth postcard imo, all three cards were well bought and advantageous to the buyers that there were three similar examples available at the same time, I can only hope Ben was the winner of one of them so he can mercifully stop bumping his BST thread.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

The 21 Exhibits Ruth is the most estheticaly pleasing early Ruth postcard imo, all three cards were well bought and advantageous to the buyers that there were three similar examples available at the same time, I can only hope Ben was the winner of one of them so he can mercifully stop bumping his BST thread.

Maybe it was Ben selling his dupes?

[sportscardpete]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

The 21 Exhibits Ruth is the most estheticaly pleasing early Ruth postcard imo, all three cards were well bought and advantageous to the buyers that there were three similar examples available at the same time, I can only hope Ben was the winner of one of them so he can mercifully stop bumping his BST thread.

Oh gosh this made me LOL.

I did win one of the 21 exhibits in REA. I thought prices had come down a lot before the auction, so wasn't entirely surprised with where they ended up, and don't necessarily think having 3 at the same time impacted the price. I think Ruth in generally has been weak this year.

I thought Wagner was weak generally speaking (especially the M116), but again I think that had started before this auction.

The JKA Cobb - what a card and what a price. The 51 signed Mantle, what a price. Definitely some strength in the hobby still showing, just not in the usual Ruth/Wagner channel.

[calvindog]

Thanks Pete. Way to make me feel worse. 🤣

[Yoda]

IMO the '21 Ruth Exhibit is popular is because it shows the Bambino in a rare fielding pose, which draws attention to it.
I hold one in a BVG 3.5 with no intention of consigning it in the near future, if ever.

[Kutcher55]

This is more anecdotal but my impression is that a lot of people who got back into the game 3-5 years ago (such as myself) started with post war Vintage. Since that stuff is mostly plentiful, the itch was scratched and now these same collectors are less interested in midgrade vintage from the 50s and 60s partly because they own most of it that they wanted but also because the thrill is somewhat gone. I have made the shift to pre war, but not top tier stuff (cobb, ruth, shoeless joe, matty, etc.), but the tiers below that. I suspect that stuff is doing pretty well overall, as it's a way to get into the post war game without spending your 401k. I have been building Red Sox sets, which are all affordable other than T.Speaker, Joe Wood and certain Duffy Lewis's and even those are within reach.

I have gotten the T206 bug, but I have zero interest in Piedmont or Sweet Caporal (even the rare variations of those backs). The tiers below those have much more appeal for me. Someone mentioned off backs are doing well and I'm not surprised to hear that.

[Kutcher55]

Also I think running comps of high ticket, very low pop pre war stuff is problematic. The market will behave most inefficiently for these cards because there are so few buyers and all it takes is two people to want the same 1912 Old Hickory Cola Honus Wagner or whatever and the price will go haywire. That's why you will get mixed signals when you try to comp out cards like this.

While we can all say with a great deal of certainty that cards like the Jordan RC are down because the market is much more efficient even for the high grade copies.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

I thought Wagner was weak generally speaking (especially the M116), but again I think that had started before this auction

There was a modern guy buying a lot of Wagner portraits during the recent run up, I think he ended up with about 15 of them. Doesn't take much to move that needle up other than money, tends to create a false market with some of these pre-war cards.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

There was a modern guy buying a lot of Wagner portraits during the recent run up, I think he ended up with about 15 of them. Doesn't take much to move that needle up other than money, tends to create a false market with some of these pre-war cards.

That's pretty amazing, and makes me wonder how many attempts at market manipulation have gone on over the years, i.e., buying up all of certain cards for a period to drive the price up, then parceling them out in various auctions over a succeeding period to realize a profit. Of course, this would take resources, planning, discipline, and some guesses as to the prices of what cards might benefit from this type of market bending, but isn't that how a lot of traders in different commodities do it? And in this day of computer algorithms and AI, who knows what advanced skills in those areas might help in this kind of pursuit? At the very least, it's a good guess there are many young folk thinking about and perhaps working on it.