Still crazy prices

[BioCRN]

The new stuff is a money game.

Sticking to base stuff of non-high end product (like Topps flagship), you have to open $300-ish worth of product to get a complete set that can be bought outright for $50-ish when it's released later as a full box set.

Some people opening the new stuff outright toss all the base because they only care about the "hits."

One of the last reasonably priced and affordable pack break these days is Topps Big League. Unfortunately, they recently started to SP some of their "base." It's still a welcome affordable entry-level product and I appreciate it's out there in the hobby.

[Touch'EmAll]

To some degree it is good people get into modern. Some of these very same people will eventually gravitate to vintage and fuel our segment of the market. But yeah, crazy, er, just plain stupid, that there is so much money pouring into young players that will never pan out.

[theshowandme]

Your average 20-30 year old card bro will tell you that they do not care about players they never saw play.

Their fathers and grandfathers probably never told them stories of players.

It is all about making the quick buck via a flip.

Nothing wrong with making $, but its a game of hot potato on these scrubs (see the NFL quarterback market) and you do not want to be one of the last few to handle the steaming pile of... potato.

[sgbernard]

I also am boggled by it, but I would just add: sports betting is now over a $100 billion industry annually. I think you should see the card market for active players as part of that industry. A lot of cash around for that, apparently.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Your average 20-30 year old card bro will tell you that they do not care about players they never saw play.

Their fathers and grandfathers probably never told them stories of players.

It is all about making the quick buck via a flip.

Nothing wrong with making $, but its a game of hot potato on these scrubs (see the NFL quarterback market) and you do not want to be one of the last few to handle the steaming pile of... potato.

I equate it to the Florida Condo boom and bust of a few years back. Eventually the condo has to sell to someone who wants to actually live there at that price. If that person doesn't exist the last flipper in line gets burnt.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

I equate it to the Florida Condo boom and bust of a few years back. Eventually the condo has to sell to someone who wants to actually live there at that price. If that person doesn't exist the last flipper in line gets burnt.

Great analogy, Scott

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Great analogy, Scott

+1

What percentage of 4/5/6/7 figure ultra-modern glossy, shiny, patched, autographed, PSA 10, 1 of 1s are purchased by the actual end-of-the-line collector?

Same question, but prewar?

[packs]

I think there's also a similar and not all that different contingent in vintage already. How many people create threads that ask questions like: what cards will gain the most value over X years? What cards are undervalued and overlooked?

These questions don't really come from a collecting standpoint. They come from a profit standpoint.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

The more things change...

Back when inserts first became all the rage it was really easy to see that this year's inserts were awesome and valuable, until next year's came out. Most of these cards, some of which went for hundreds or even thousands of dollars, go for a pittance now. A few truly iconic things have held value. Donruss Elite aren't worth what they were but still do well. Upper Deck Autographed Heroes still perform and 1993 Finest Refractors will likely never die as they are the grandfather to all parallels.

[raulus]

I know that this thread is all about modern prices still being crazy.

But are vintage prices any less crazy?

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by raulus

I know that this thread is all about modern prices still being crazy.

But are vintage prices any less crazy?

I’m finding value all over the place!

[raulus]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I’m finding value all over the place!

I find plenty of value in most modern cards as well. 99.999999% of modern sells for peanuts.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by raulus

I know that this thread is all about modern prices still being crazy.

But are vintage prices any less crazy?

No, they are just as crazy from all the pumping and dumping. Many vintage cards are 5 to 10 times in price from just 6-8 years ago.

[Snapolit1]

I remember when the breakers were salivating over Zion and how he was the second coming. . . . refractors selling for over a million . . .how did that work out? Got to have a short memory to play this game.

[egri]

Originally Posted by raulus

I know that this thread is all about modern prices still being crazy.

But are vintage prices any less crazy?

Admittedly, this is only one card, but when I started my signed 1953 Topps project in 2014, Satchel Paige was a $1,000 card. Maybe as high as $1,200 if the buyer had to have it now, or as low as $800 if the seller was looking to move it quickly. And it stayed at that level for about 5-6 years. They were readily available too; there was always at least 1 or 2 (or more) on eBay, and a few others would pop up from time to time at the auction houses.

Then around 2020, I started seeing it sell in the $2-3,000 range. I figured some sellers were taking profits, some new buyers were impatient, and soon it would return to normal. Instead, over the next few years that became a $4-6,000 card. Now, Probstein sold one last month for over $8,000, and there's another on eBay right now for $12,000. The buyers are holding on to them as well; before those two, it had been a while since I saw one on eBay. As a buyer, it's the worst of both worlds; not only does he not come up as often, but the prices are much higher when he does. There's one in REA right now in a PSA holder that sold for $3,500 two years ago in a Beckett slab; I'm keeping an eye on it but am fully prepared for it to go out of my range.

[packs]

It was the same with the Satchel Paige signed business cards. They were a $100 item and the last of them were signed more than 40 years ago.

Today, despite no change in supply, you'll have to shell out $400 or more.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by packs

It was the same with the Satchel Paige signed business cards. They were a $100 item and the last of them were signed more than 40 years ago.

Today, despite no change in supply, you'll have to shell out $400 or more.

I can at least justify the price of that though. It's Satchel Paige. He's one of the greatest pitchers to ever play. Why anyone would spend 1000+ on a card of Anthony Volpe is beyond me.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by packs

It was the same with the Satchel Paige signed business cards. They were a $100 item and the last of them were signed more than 40 years ago. Today, despite no change in supply, you'll have to shell out $400 or more.

There is a change in supply, though, as such things get "collected up." So, no surprise in their appreciation.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

To some degree it is good people get into modern. Some of these very same people will eventually gravitate to vintage and fuel our segment of the market. But yeah, crazy, er, just plain stupid, that there is so much money pouring into young players that will never pan out.

I think I'd prefer they stay away from vintage