What will Collectors Holdings do with SGC?

[Peter_Spaeth]

I agree with Howard there likely was a defensive motivation as part of the equation. That said, I think you're (1) underestimating the huge revenues they would make from crossover if they eventually discontinue the brand and (2) overestimating any loss of market share. There's noplace else to go, people who want slabbed cards for the most part are going to submit to PSA in my opinion if there is no SGC per se. And I think there likely are efficiencies to be gained by folding in the SGC brand vs. inefficiencies in propping up two brands one of which is small. That said, I have no idea.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I agree with Howard there likely was a defensive motivation as part of the equation. That said, I think you're (1) underestimating the huge revenues they would make from crossover if they eventually discontinue the brand and (2) overestimating any loss of market share. There's noplace else to go, people who want slabbed cards for the most part are going to submit to PSA in my opinion if there is no SGC per se. And I think there likely are efficiencies to be gained by folding in the SGC brand vs. inefficiencies in propping up two brands one of which is small. That said, I have no idea.

Peter, the huge revenues are a one-time event. I suppose if they make enough to reimburse what they paid for SGC, then it’s a wash. But that seems dumb to pay good money for a company hoping you recoup your purchase price from crossover fees as you kill the company.

Inversely, SGC has intrinsic value and income stream. You can earn a return from operating it now, and likely increase that return (and PSA profits) by combining efficiencies.

Buying SGC for one-time cross-over revenue is short term gain for long term pain, or maybe break even. Running SGC, which is growing, and maximizing efficiencies is a short term gain and long term gain.

And, I do believe PSA will lose some market share if they shut down SGC. Those collectors, and many in prewar/vintage are collectors (vs investors) don’t care so much about the flip and will move the CGC. Hake’s has some prewar item, including to Baltimore News Cards, that look real nice in CGC flips.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Peter, the huge revenues are a one-time event. I suppose if they make enough to reimburse what they paid for SGC, then it’s a wash. But that seems dumb to pay good money for a company hoping you recoup your purchase price from crossover fees as you kill the company.

Inversely, SGC has intrinsic value and income stream. You can earn a return from operating it now, and likely increase that return (and PSA profits) by combining efficiencies.

Buying SGC for one-time cross-over revenue is short term gain for long term pain, or maybe break even. Running SGC, which is growing, and maximizing efficiencies is a short term gain and long term gain.

And, I do believe PSA will lose some market share if they shut down SGC. Those collectors, and many in prewar/vintage are collectors (vs investors) don’t care so much about the flip and will move the CGC. Hake’s has some prewar item, including to Baltimore News Cards, that look real nice in CGC flips.

Time will prove one of us right and the other wrong. My guess is the brand is terminated by mid to late 2025. We'll probably have clues one way or the other before then.

[JollyElm]

nostradamusbaseballcards.jpg

Look, I'm not sure if it has any bearing, but I did find this, and it might prove to be somewhat pertinent...

Nostradamus Quatrain:
"The younger lion, shall embrace the elder,
On the field of combat, in a duel for gold;
Through armor of plastic, and numbers festooned,
Two big cats together, but one to die a cruel death...(the rest is written in the margins of his almanac, and it's only a loose translation) and I further prophesize that there shall be a joint registry or something, so that's cool. 2024 is going to be off-the-hook, my future homies!!!!"

[toledo_mudhen]

If I were PSA and having just acquired SGC - I would :

Introduce a Brand New Slab as the Brand New Standard thus forcing both camps to send in EVERYTHING they got for Regrade/Reholder

That's if I were PSA

[Leon]

I predict SGC will lose market share in the future.
.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Leon

I predict SGC will lose market share in the future.
.

Leon, totally agree. March is a wash (the SGC news came out too late to impact) but let's see what the SGC grading numbers are for April, May, and June.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Leon

I predict SGC will lose market share in the future.
.

But barring layoffs, turnaround times will improve!

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Leon

I predict SGC will lose market share in the future.
.

I think you're right, barring significant investments from Collectors at least.

I think CGC is well positioned to capitalize on the opportunity too, if so. Both strategically and geographically. While they're not exactly neighbors, both CGC and SGC being in Florida will surely result in at least a few disgruntled SGC graders changing teams. And once word starts to spread about SGC graders now grading vintage cards at CGC, it's only a matter of time until the market follows them as well.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I agree with Howard there likely was a defensive motivation as part of the equation. That said, I think you're (1) underestimating the huge revenues they would make from crossover if they eventually discontinue the brand and (2) overestimating any loss of market share. There's noplace else to go, people who want slabbed cards for the most part are going to submit to PSA in my opinion if there is no SGC per se. And I think there likely are efficiencies to be gained by folding in the SGC brand vs. inefficiencies in propping up two brands one of which is small. That said, I have no idea.

I think you're overvaluing the value of the crossover revenue component. First, it's a one time shot. Collectors makes more crossover money by keeping both brands alive and allowing submitters to continue to cross cards back and forth. Second, simply taking on more crossovers comes at an opportunity cost. There are always tradeoffs. Their overall bandwidth is still limited by headcounts, and the tradeoff to offer crossover specials is to not offer other specials that they otherwise would have. And hiring enough extra people just to expand their capacity for long enough to handle the crossover wave only to no longer need them when it's over probably isn't worth the effort and added expense.