Memory lane auction results last night

[Snapolit1]

I dont understand why grading would ruin the hobby for people who profess they don’t care about grading. That makes no sense to me.

Just collect what you want to collect.

[trambo]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I dont understand why grading would ruin the hobby for people who profess they don’t care about grading. That makes no sense to me.

Just collect what you want to collect.

Agree w/this 100%.

[jsfriedm]

Small sample size, but when it comes to high grade T205s, that is always the case. The PSA 7 T205 Cy Young sold for $53,874 - exact same card sold in ML in October 2021 for $110,084, so over 50% drop. The PSA 8 T205 Speaker sold for $30,508, while one sold in Heritage in November 2021 for $49,200, so nearly 40% drop.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Small sample size, but when it comes to high grade T205s, that is always the case. The PSA 7 T205 Cy Young sold for $53,874 - exact same card sold in ML in October 2021 for $110,084, so over 50% drop. The PSA 8 T205 Speaker sold for $30,508, while one sold in Heritage in November 2021 for $49,200, so nearly 40% drop.

This is with reposting.

But here is VCP data on the last several t205 Speaker PSA 8 sales. I think that November 2021 could be a major outlier, and we would all agree that the result the other night is great compared to these other results

Also not that the recent sale is not (hopefully, yet) in VCP

[jsfriedm]

Ryan,

Thanks for the VCP data. Incidentally, the one that just sold at ML is the same one that sold in April 2021, though that sold at Leland's, which I think gets less attention, and before I think the pandemic boom really fully hit vintage. In any case, I think the question is this: are pre-pandemic comps supposed to be relevant? As Nicolo showed in his message, we are still generally far above those, and that is still the case in the world of high grade T205s. So much so, that I thought less in terms of pre-pandemic comps and more in terms of where the new baseline is. Do you think pre-pandemic comps should still be the measuring stick?

[Rhotchkiss]

Great question! I think it depends somewhat on the card we are comping. But I do think that with many cards, especially ones that are fairly common, you can throw pre-Covid data out the window. Those prices are long gone and likely never coming back.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Great question! I think it depends somewhat on the card we are comping. But I do think that with many cards, especially ones that are fairly common, you can throw pre-Covid data out the window. Those prices are long gone and likely never coming back.

Dude! Don't take pre-covid prices away from me. I still hold out hope that one day we'll get a little closer to the pre-covid good old days.

If nothing else, I prefer to continue to refer to pre-covid prices just to track how much they've changed. From time to time, you hear someone say that prices have come back down after covid. While that may be true for a few areas, they're obviously way up for almost all vintage baseball.

Comparing current prices to pre-covid tends to help me to get a better grasp on just how much prices are up. For the most part, it's a lot! And in some cases, the spread is continuing to get worse, rather than better.

Worthless virus.

Killing me.

[trambo]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Small sample size, but when it comes to high grade T205s, that is always the case. The PSA 7 T205 Cy Young sold for $53,874 - exact same card sold in ML in October 2021 for $110,084, so over 50% drop. The PSA 8 T205 Speaker sold for $30,508, while one sold in Heritage in November 2021 for $49,200, so nearly 40% drop.

But don't forget about the 3rd t205 PSA 8 (Mordecai Brown) that sold in the auction for about $17.5k. That was about a 20% increase over the December 2023 sale price for a similar 8 of that card.

T205 high grades are a little different than t206 at auction, I think as the PSA 7 and higher t205s are much, much more difficult than t206 in similar grades. I looked at all 3 of the t205s and all would be upgrades for me (I have 7 Speaker, 6 Young, 7 Brown). I knew the Young would be about a $50k card and thought it sold the right level. Speaker I pegged around $25-$30k and the Brown at around $15k. I went for the Brown only because I liked the card and knew the potential for the other two to go nuts again left me not wanting to even remotely chase those.

As for the price drop on the other two from your post, I followed both of those auctions based on where my t205 set was and is grade wise. The Young sale went absolutely nuts on the last day and it felt like two people ultimately having a measuring contest to see who was bigger. I had hoped to score that card for price that was more in line w/the sale before. The Speaker was not as crazy but similar. and I didn't chase that one at all since I like my PSA 7 Speaker. I chalk neither of those up to any downturn in the market but just two guys deciding to play a game of chicken and had unlimited funds to do so.

[LincolnVT]

Personally, I would rather a 1975 Brett in a PSA 10 than a Henderson, but that’s just my love for that Brett card which is tough as a 10 with such bold coloring. I am a believer that the recently graded “important cards” graded PSA 7–10 will soon be untouchable for most with modest means. Get your cornerstone cards while you can.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by raulus

Even some of us set registry goons are waiting/hoping for more affordability.

Nico - I don't think of people that have registry sets as goons. People with registry sets are "focused". I get it, improving the set is easier to do when there's a number associated to it.

When the leaders of the pack go to all lengths to be #1 (or in the top 5, or however crazy registry people measure things), then to me it's a bit over the top and not my way of collecting. That said, sorry, "crazy" was a bit over the top to describe the top registry people and just because I don't aspire to be a registry leader doesn't mean other collectors shouldn't try to because it's different strokes for different folks. See the next response to Steve, please.

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Everyone has their own opinion on these things. I do not believe that the bat shit crazy market for Ricky Henderson rookie PSA 10's has raised the interest level or market value one iota of raw cards or the same card in a PSA 1, 2 , etc. Maybe it has raised the value of PSA 9, as speculators think that they will break it out and go for a 10.

Rising tide pf the grading game may have lifted a few boats. Not all of them.

Steve - For newer material, you're probably right, the price of a PSA 10 doesn't raise the price of the cards graded much lower at 5 or even 6 because there are SO many of them. Even those "unicorn" 10s are not going to raise the prices of the lower grades examples (unless you're looking at 9s, as you mentioned).

When considering vintage cards, the population difference is drastic when compared to a modern set (even going back 40 years for modern material). In most cases, it's much easier to find a lower grade modern card than it is to find that lower grade vintage card. There's so many more modern cards available. There's stuff still in wax boxes that haven't seen the light of day.

That said, I'm sure demand has increased for lower grade vintage cards because of the rise in popularity of collecting pictures of dead guys on cardboard, but as people pay more for the higher grade vintage cards, the price for lower grade vintage increases a bit more than when compared to the lower graded counterparts in the modern sets.

[jsfriedm]

Trambo, if you're ever looking to move on from your PSA 7 Mathewson, let me know.

[trambo]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

Trambo, if you're ever looking to move on from your PSA 7 Mathewson, let me know.

Thanks! One of the favorite cards in my set and PC to be honest. Very doubtful that one will leave PC for several (I hope) decades... haha!

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I dont understand why grading would ruin the hobby for people who profess they don’t care about grading. That makes no sense to me.

Just collect what you want to collect.

Grading has brought out the "competitive" wallets that "have to have the best". Nothing wrong with that except the result is auction hammer prices that have marked increases which leads to investors driving up the price of the top graded cards which then leads to an increase in price to the lower grade material which drives the price up on everything which makes "people that don't care" if the card is raw or graded pay more for something that used to be much less. You've heard the saying "A rising tide lifts all boats".

It's probably the evolution of the hobby. However it would help if the TPGs actually did what they were supposed to do, without bias and with an adherence to published "industry standards" (which includes actually making a determination cards are TRIMMED).

I can predict the thoughts of some that believe that TPGs do more good than not. To that I say, try to find an old auction catalog that had a collection of T206s from a famous collector and then attempt to tell yourself that many of the cards in the TPG holders were not trimmed. This is from the earlier days of grading which would indicate there was bias and a bit too much "subjectivity" in grading from the beginning and one couldn't imagine things have changed much since then.

I think a lot of collectors are waiting/hoping for the bubble to pop and then see a precipitous drop in interest in what was once a hobby.

However, I could be wrong.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Fred

I think a lot of collectors are waiting/hoping for the bubble to pop and then see a precipitous drop in interest in what was once a hobby.

Even some of us set registry goons are waiting/hoping for more affordability.

[Snapolit1]

Everyone has their own opinion on these things. I do not believe that the bat shit crazy market for Ricky Henderson rookie PSA 10's has raised the interest level or market value one iota of raw cards or the same card in a PSA 1, 2 , etc. Maybe it has raised the value of PSA 9, as speculators think that they will break it out and go for a 10.

Rising tide pf the grading game may have lifted a few boats. Not all of them.

Originally Posted by Fred

Grading has brought out the "competitive" wallets that "have to have the best". Nothing wrong with that except the result is auction hammer prices that have marked increases which leads to investors driving up the price of the top graded cards which then leads to an increase in price to the lower grade material which drives the price up on everything which makes "people that don't care" if the card is raw or graded pay more for something that used to be much less. You've heard the saying "A rising tide lifts all boats".

It's probably the evolution of the hobby. However it would help if the TPGs actually did what they were supposed to do, without bias and with an adherence to published "industry standards" (which includes actually making a determination cards are TRIMMED).

I can predict the thoughts of some that believe that TPGs do more good than not. To that I say, try to find an old auction catalog that had a collection of T206s from a famous collector and then attempt to tell yourself that many of the cards in the TPG holders were not trimmed. This is from the earlier days of grading which would indicate there was bias and a bit too much "subjectivity" in grading from the beginning and one couldn't imagine things have changed much since then.

I think a lot of collectors are waiting/hoping for the bubble to pop and then see a precipitous drop in interest in what was once a hobby.

However, I could be wrong.

[Republicaninmass]

Yeaaaa

NOBODY would overpay and submit 10 psa 9s for review to try for a 10. Cracked or otherwise.

Sarcasm...in