Cards selling over 1 million dollars in 2024

[jsfriedm]

I would actually be surprised if a 1951 Bowman Mays PSA 9 didn't hit at least 2 mil, considering 8s sell for around 250K, and that I don't think a 9 has sold for 15 years or so.

[Fred]

This is where I get lost. A "9" being worth about 8x the same card graded an "8". When it comes to subjectivity at that level, we pretty much know it could go either way. We've all seen 8's that are better than 9's.

I'm so glad that I'm not stuck on a kick where I have to have the highest number on a label and gladly pay 8x more for a number on a label.

Apologies to the registry collectors that may think I'm making fun of them. Even if I had $1.75M to spend on cards, I'd be making a different choice than upgrading my "8" grade for a "9" grade. But that's just me, I guess.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Fred

This is where I get lost. A "9" being worth about 8x the same card graded an "8". When it comes to subjectivity at that level, we pretty much know it could go either way. We've all seen 8's that are better than 9's.

I'm so glad that I'm not stuck on a kick where I have to have the highest number on a label and gladly pay 8x more for a number on a label.

Apologies to the registry collectors that may think I'm making fun of them. Even if I had $1.75M to spend on cards, I'd be making a different choice than upgrading my "8" grade for a "9" grade. But that's just me, I guess.

I wouldn't sweat it. I think even us hardcore set registry goons acknowledge the folly in our approach, and in moments of extreme omphaloskepsis may question whether it's wise to continue to climb this ladder.

Although truth be told, I suspect that when you get up into 7 figures, most of the time you're probably not really dealing with hard core set registry collectors. It's probably a much smaller subset of "investor-class" collectors, who are less focused on completing sets in high grades, and more focused on "number go up".

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by raulus

I wouldn't sweat it. I think even us hardcore set registry goons acknowledge the folly in our approach, and in moments of extreme omphaloskepsis may question whether it's wise to continue to climb this ladder.

Although truth be told, I suspect that when you get up into 7 figures, most of the time you're probably not really dealing with hard core set registry collectors. It's probably a much smaller subset of "investor-class" collectors, who are less focused on completing sets in high grades, and more focused on "number go up".

I learned a new word today.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Fred]

Originally Posted by 4815162342

I learned a new word today.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'll be honest, I had to google that. Too funny.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by raulus

I wouldn't sweat it. I think even us hardcore set registry goons acknowledge the folly in our approach, and in moments of extreme omphaloskepsis may question whether it's wise to continue to climb this ladder.

Although truth be told, I suspect that when you get up into 7 figures, most of the time you're probably not really dealing with hard core set registry collectors. It's probably a much smaller subset of "investor-class" collectors, who are less focused on completing sets in high grades, and more focused on "number go up".

That makes sense.

If I were an "investor-class" collector (which aint gonna happen unless I win a HUGE Powerball jackpot), then I'd be looking at other cards besides Topps and Bowman because I would figure those cards are more plentiful than some of the true rarities like the W600s or E107s. It's probably a good thing I'm not in the "investor-class" because I'd probably lose my butt on the "investment", but I'd sure own some cool cards!

[Rhotchkiss]

If I were an "investor-class" collector, then I'd be looking at other cards besides Topps and Bowman because I would figure those cards are more plentiful than some of the true rarities like the W600s or E107s.

Bingo. As someone who loves cards but ultimately buys them for investment, I believe that real/natural rarity is much better than manufactured rarity or rarity based on grade. And real rarity is most often found in the prewar stuff, like E107 and W600s. Even better, indeed almost essential, is the player, which is why I focus mostly on Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, Jackson, etc. In my opinion (and general experience), rare cards of these types of players, regardless of grade, make for pretty good investments; this is especially true if you can hold them and sell when you choose.

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Bingo. As someone who loves cards but ultimately buys them for investment, I believe that real/natural rarity is much better than manufactured rarity or rarity based on grade. And real rarity is most often found in the prewar stuff, like E107 and W600s. Even better, indeed almost essential, is the player, which is why I focus mostly on Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, Jackson, etc. In my opinion (and general experience), rare cards of these types of players, regardless of grade, make for pretty good investments; this is especially true if you can hold them and sell when you choose.

Spot on. Buying the right vintage low POP card at the right time of year and selling in the best fiscal quarter of year will consistently (5 year trend) yield an additional 25% gross ROI over the S&P 500 and DJA annual avg returns.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Bingo. As someone who loves cards but ultimately buys them for investment, I believe that real/natural rarity is much better than manufactured rarity or rarity based on grade. And real rarity is most often found in the prewar stuff, like E107 and W600s. Even better, indeed almost essential, is the player, which is why I focus mostly on Cobb, Wagner, Ruth, Jackson, etc. In my opinion (and general experience), rare cards of these types of players, regardless of grade, make for pretty good investments; this is especially true if you can hold them and sell when you choose.

100% agree. Absolute rarity is wonderful. When you have a truly rare item, you can set the price and hold out to get it.

I am contemptuous of condition rarity. It only matters when a card is abundant enough across the grades to be readily acquired for the asking if the money is there. And modern PSA 10s are a joke. When you have a ton of cards kept in pack-fresh condition and a mountain of unopened material, there will be a ton of pack-fresh cards to grade and inevitably a big stack of 10s. Consider the card that many think of as the granddaddy of modern cards, the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card. Total PSA population of this card as of January 14, 2023, is 176,667, of which 4,091 are unqualified PSA 10 graded cards. The people trying to sell these cards will tell you that PSA 10 are only 2.3% of the total population of PSA Griffey cards. True, but meaningless, because there are still over 4,000 PSA perfect 10 Griffey cards. And, of course, the distinctions PSA makes over these cards is so trivial that you can put a bunch of PSA 9 Griffeys with a 10 Griffey in a pile with the labels covered and the vast majority of collectors will not be able to choose the PSA 10. I also am disgusted that massive value swings result from arbitrary and opaque decisions made by unknown persons at the TPG, and the TPGs have a dismal track record of approving altered cards. Lots of 10s with a shave and a haircut.

I loathe manufactured rarity. The problem with manufactured rarities is that demand for them hasn’t built organically and over the long term. The manufacturers keep churning them out, year after year, in every series and set, and they get hyped relentlessly to push the issue out the door, until the next wave of cards is issued and they become yesterday’s news. Also, when every card has a rainbow of parallel manufactured rarities, player collectors get frustrated and burned out, and they quit. The result is a mountain of very low print run cards that fall in value after issue and stay way down by comparison to the initial price run. Reminds me of bad IPOs.

[Snapolit1]

Some guy is sitting on an Ohtani 1/100 signed card for his kids college fund, blissfully unaware that by now there are probably thousands of them.

I think it took people many years but they finally caught on with Trout. How many 100,000s of "nice" Trout cards must be out there. Boggles the mind.

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

100% agree. Absolute rarity is wonderful. When you have a truly rare item, you can set the price and hold out to get it.

I am contemptuous of condition rarity. It only matters when a card is abundant enough across the grades to be readily acquired for the asking if the money is there. And modern PSA 10s are a joke. When you have a ton of cards kept in pack-fresh condition and a mountain of unopened material, there will be a ton of pack-fresh cards to grade and inevitably a big stack of 10s. Consider the card that many think of as the granddaddy of modern cards, the 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card. Total PSA population of this card as of January 14, 2023, is 176,667, of which 4,091 are unqualified PSA 10 graded cards. The people trying to sell these cards will tell you that PSA 10 are only 2.3% of the total population of PSA Griffey cards. True, but meaningless, because there are still over 4,000 PSA perfect 10 Griffey cards. And, of course, the distinctions PSA makes over these cards is so trivial that you can put a bunch of PSA 9 Griffeys with a 10 Griffey in a pile with the labels covered and the vast majority of collectors will not be able to choose the PSA 10. I also am disgusted that massive value swings result from arbitrary and opaque decisions made by unknown persons at the TPG, and the TPGs have a dismal track record of approving altered cards. Lots of 10s with a shave and a haircut.

I loathe manufactured rarity. The problem with manufactured rarities is that demand for them hasn’t built organically and over the long term. The manufacturers keep churning them out, year after year, in every series and set, and they get hyped relentlessly to push the issue out the door, until the next wave of cards is issued and they become yesterday’s news. Also, when every card has a rainbow of parallel manufactured rarities, player collectors get frustrated and burned out, and they quit. The result is a mountain of very low print run cards that fall in value after issue and stay way down by comparison to the initial price run. Reminds me of bad IPOs.

[Bigdaddy]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

100% agree. Absolute rarity is wonderful. When you have a truly rare item, you can set the price and hold out to get it.

I loathe manufactured rarity. The problem with manufactured rarities is that demand for them hasn’t built organically and over the long term. The manufacturers keep churning them out, year after year, in every series and set, and they get hyped relentlessly to push the issue out the door, until the next wave of cards is issued and they become yesterday’s news. Also, when every card has a rainbow of parallel manufactured rarities, player collectors get frustrated and burned out, and they quit. The result is a mountain of very low print run cards that fall in value after issue and stay way down by comparison to the initial price run. Reminds me of bad IPOs.

Reminds me of the overproduction of cards in the 80's. Too many rare/desirable cards produced by the manufacturers that ended up swamping the demand.

[here2havefun]

A large portion of the 2021 and 2022 sales are just the Contenders Brady auto RC and the Lebron RPA. Those cards are still selling quite often these days, but they just are no longer breaking $1mil.

According to Card Ladder sales data:

20: Number of Brady Contenders Auto RC sales over $1mil 2021-2022
13: Number of Lebron RPA sales over $1mil 2021-2022

And throwing this in just for perspective:
8: Number of 52T Mantle sales over $1mil 2021-2022

[MACollector]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I would actually be surprised if a 1951 Bowman Mays PSA 9 didn't hit at least 2 mil, considering 8s sell for around 250K, and that I don't think a 9 has sold for 15 years or so.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the only 8.5 Mays would eclipse 1m. There are several Aaron 8.5’s that have sold for 3-4x the price of an 8 in the past year.