Market gridlock

[BobbyStrawberry]

I wonder if a general sense of uncertainty has a part in it as well.... prices on goods at record highs, multiple wars raging abroad with no end in sight, widespread domestic political dysfunction... Of course I could be completely wrong that this has anything to do with it but it might be a factor

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

I wonder if a general sense of uncertainty has a part in it as well.... prices on goods at record highs, multiple wars raging abroad with no end in sight, widespread domestic political dysfunction... Of course I could be completely wrong that this has anything to do with it but it might be a factor

I'm betting that THIS is exactly what's wrong with it and it wont get fixed until November 2024.....

[glynparson]

Exempting the unnatural pandemic market prices are almost always down a good bit in December. When I was flush with cash before I got sick I would buy tons of material
In December. It’s generally a great time to pick up stuff. Less competition due to people
Buying stuff for family at the holidays and often some more things in the market because people are trying to generate cash to buy presents. I don’t judge the market much on what happens in December. If it’s still this stagnant and down when February rolls around it will be of more concern than it being down right now. Either way we are clearly down from the absurd pandemic market but everyone that was being rational and honest knew the market could not stay like it was in 2020-2022.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Exempting the unnatural pandemic market prices are almost always down a good bit in December. When I was flush with cash before I got sick I would buy tons of material
In December. It’s generally a great time to pick up stuff. Less competition due to people
Buying stuff for family at the holidays and often some more things in the market because people are trying to generate cash to buy presents. I don’t judge the market much on what happens in December. If it’s still this stagnant and down when February rolls around it will be of more concern than it being down right now. Either way we are clearly down from the absurd pandemic market but everyone that was being rational and honest knew the market could not stay like it was in 2020-2022.

I concur. It's the most wonderful time of the year, unless you are a card seller. Same is true of many other trades. From Thanksgiving to around the 2nd week in January my practice slows way down. No one wants to do anything that might interfere with travel and family plans. I had a hearing last week, judge was on vacation, and his replacement kicked the hearing to July.

About the only thing I'd add to glyn's point is that we are in a very typical period before the market bottoms out, which will come once we see the folks who holding out for higher prices decide they have to sell: the capitulation sales. We'll go flat for a while and then demand will grow again, same as it ever was.

[Snapolit1]

The only good thing with getting old is the ability to see the same cycles repeat themselves time and again.


QUOTE=Exhibitman;2399729]I concur. It's the most wonderful time of the year, unless you are a card seller. Same is true of many other trades. From Thanksgiving to around the 2nd week in January my practice slows way down. No one wants to do anything that might interfere with travel and family plans. I had a hearing last week, judge was on vacation, and his replacement kicked the hearing to July.

About the only thing I'd add to glyn's point is that we are in a very typical period before the market bottoms out, which will come once we see the folks who holding out for higher prices decide they have to sell: the capitulation sales. We'll go flat for a while and then demand will grow again, same as it ever was.[/QUOTE]

[bbcard1]

Of the significant cards I bought last year...1954 Kaline, 1953 Robinson, 1954 Banks and 1948 Leaf, I am pretty sure I could buy three of them today for 20% less or better. Honestly, most of the stuff that is gridlocked can be expected. They are good cards that are readily available.

[Snapolit1]

I feel like the 1932 Sanella Ruth was a turning point. Lol. When I saw people spending $5000 for that card I knew something had gone a little nutty.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by glynparson

Exempting the unnatural pandemic market prices are almost always down a good bit in December. When I was flush with cash before I got sick I would buy tons of material In December. It’s generally a great time to pick up stuff. Less competition due to people buying stuff for family at the holidays and often some more things in the market because people are trying to generate cash to buy presents. I don’t judge the market much on what happens in December.

I could never understand, from the start of the catalog auction era 30 years ago, until now, why December seems to be the one month in which ALL the big AHs choose to stage one of their two or three major auctions a year, some of them within a week or two of Xmas. But these guys know their business, so there must be something going on there or they wouldn't keep doing it. Year end bonuses, dividends, stock sales to lock in capital gains losses to take against gains, tax refunds looming, etc? There must be enough cash floating around at this time to make it worth their while to compete with Christmas spending, which normally wouldn't seem to be the smartest thing to do.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I could never understand, from the start of the catalog auction era 30 years ago, until now, why December seems to be the one month in which ALL the big AHs choose to stage one of their two or three major auctions a year, some of them within a week or two of Xmas. But these guys know their business, so there must be something going on there or they wouldn't keep doing it. Year end bonuses, dividends, stock sales to lock in capital gains losses to take against gains, tax refunds looming, etc? There must be enough cash floating around at this time to make it worth their while to compete with Christmas spending, which normally wouldn't seem to be the smartest thing to do.

I've done a lot of predictive modeling in other markets that account for seasonality, and it doesn't really have much of an effect on higher net worth individuals. It's primarily a financial pressure on the middle and lower classes with respect to spending habits. I suspect this is why they still run their larger auctions because they really only care about the big ticket items anyhow, and those hammer prices aren't really going to be affected by seasonality.

That said, other factors like interest rates, political and social unrest, and conflicts abroad all certainly do have measurable effects across all income levels.

[notfast]

I think any “gridlock” is by people not realizing every new sale isn’t a new high and that a lot of stuff is available a lot more often than it was in the past.

C

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I've done a lot of predictive modeling in other markets that account for seasonality, and it doesn't really have much of an effect on higher net worth individuals. It's primarily a financial pressure on the middle and lower classes with respect to spending habits. I suspect this is why they still run their larger auctions because they really only care about the big ticket items anyhow, and those hammer prices aren't really going to be affected by seasonality. That said, other factors like interest rates, political and social unrest, and conflicts abroad all certainly do have measurable effects across all income levels.

This all makes sense, thanks. I would add one other possibility, something which I think I noticed from doing shows for 20 years: Perhaps somewhat counterintuitively, baseball collectors seem to be more engaged in their hobby in the off-seasons, perhaps less distracted by the actual games and pennant races going on during them.