How many copies of T206 exist today?

[ullmandds]

aside from rarities i also believe there are thousands of each. 2-3000

[G1911]

The easy answer is way, way more than 500, but we don't know. There were likely millions of a T206 common printed.

We have some data points on T cards.

For example, from Fullgraff's records and court records for T225-1 have found at least 21,000,000 cards printed in multiple print runs of as many as 5 million cards in a single day, from August of 1909 to February of 1910 of its 25 subjects. 840,000 printed of each subject, assuming the print runs I have accounted for were 100% of the print runs. This set is not particularly rare today, but nor is it one of the common T sets (t206, T206, T59, T29, etc.). There are several T206 Batch's today for every T225-1 Driscoll's. The survival rate is far below 1%.

T206 figures are not known; and the estimates that assume they were in every Piedmont and Sweet Cap pack for the entire duration the set existed is not a good guesstimate. We could probably extrapolate from sets that are known and relative scarcities to ballpark it as a rough starting point.

[darwinbulldog]

I think about 3,000 for a typical T206. Polar Bears alone there are about 300 copies of each (of those 250 cards). Hall of Fame poses on average should be somewhat more common than "commons" just because people would have been less likely to discard cards of recognized/preferred players (both in 1909-1911 and every year since then).

[JustinD]

I am a likely an outlier but I think including the undiscovered and ungraded, numbers are closer to 10000 each at minimum for common backs. T206 is the 1989 Topps of prewar, there is nothing even close.

Greg’s post is a good starting point for understanding, the numbers of these were astronomical especially when the population is considered. Smoking was common for adults and children at the time, they likely had the opportunity with habit to collect 2-3 cards a day. The stories of sweeping dozens of cards off the floor of bars are common. The only limitation to claiming there is multiples of millions out there is time and that most did not hold onto them for long.

That said, the idea that stars should be more common than “commons” makes logical sense. The stars likely do have the highest real population.

[Kidnapped18]

Have you been to a show lately? Dealers have hundreds/thousands of T206 cards in binders at the shows and they have hundreds/thousands of binders to look through. Then throw in the slabs and all the cards listed on eBay and the auction houses.

For the non SLers yes I agree that each player (minus the obvious Wagner, Plank, Magie, Doyle, Demmitt, O'Hara) has at least 1000+ cards that survived either graded or raw however for the SLers it is clear to me that none of those players have more than 750 copies that would be available.
For the SLers PSA has about 300 cards per player and SGC has about 200 cards per player when you factor in resubs, crack outs, crossovers, raw etc. I would put the number of SLers that are still existing in the 500-600 range each incl BVG, PSA, SGC and raw
So if you had 100 copies (Hindu, Old Mill, Piedmont) of a SLer say Shaughnessy then I would say you have about 20% of that card that is available.

[Lobo Aullando]

Scot Reader gave it a shot using tobacco production numbers and came up with up to 370 million total produced. (on page 26: Inside T206)

Let's say one rounded down to 300 million because of other subjects printed, then only half a percent surviving (my number) puts the total at 1.5 million, then you divide by 500 – this is all so BotEC in nature, anyways – to get an average of 3,000 for each. (Again, Scot has a better discussion.)

I'd love to develop a model that estimates propensity to be graded. There must be a somewhat similar distribution of grades for each across all cards (hopefully, but we could account for people taking special care of their Mathewsons over the decades). Using cards of varying desirability (via price), if we could compare the difference of the right of the distribution to the differences in the center and left of the distribution, we might be able to get an idea of what remains. (Refine it from there to account for regrading.)

[Casey2296]

I have a recurring dream (fantasy) that I would open an auction website and there would be 9 pages of e-cards and less than a dozen decent T206s for sale.

[chalupacollects]

Originally Posted by G1911

The easy answer is way, way more than 500, but we don't know. There were likely millions of a T206 common printed.

We have some data points on T cards.

For example, from Fullgraff's records and court records for T225-1 have found at least 21,000,000 cards printed in multiple print runs of as many as 5 million cards in a single day, from August of 1909 to February of 1910 of its 25 subjects. 840,000 printed of each subject, assuming the print runs I have accounted for were 100% of the print runs. This set is not particularly rare today, but nor is it one of the common T sets (t206, T206, T59, T29, etc.). There are several T206 Batch's today for every T225-1 Driscoll's. The survival rate is far below 1%.

T206 figures are not known; and the estimates that assume they were in every Piedmont and Sweet Cap pack for the entire duration the set existed is not a good guesstimate. We could probably extrapolate from sets that are known and relative scarcities to ballpark it as a rough starting point.

Given that the American Tobacco Company owned about 200 manufacturers of cigarettes by 1910 including A&G and OJ and had revenues of $316 million, if there was a card in every pack and each pack was $0.10 that would be 3.16 billion cards produced. So, the big question is how many baseball cards were produced and how many survived?

Note: by 1911 ATC was broken up by the feds as a monopoly with RJ Reynolds and Philip Morris being created out of that breakup.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by chalupacollects

Given that the American Tobacco Company owned about 200 manufacturers of cigarettes by 1910 including A&G and OJ and had revenues of $316 million, if there was a card in every pack and each pack was $0.10 that would be 3.16 billion cards produced. So, the big question is how many baseball cards were produced and how many survived?

Note: by 1911 ATC was broken up by the feds as a monopoly with RJ Reynolds and Philip Morris being created out of that breakup.

There was not a card in every pack. Some packs had two. Many, many packs had 0. Some brands never issued a set even once during the T card period. We can’t arrive at a reasonable answer by this method.

[doug.goodman]

I only care what TedZ thinks...

[vintagesportscollector]

Looking at this from supply and DEMAND, let’s flip the question - how many T206 collectors are there? Those who have or are actively building a significant number of cards. Based on an assumed demand, and a gauge of prices, we can estimate a supply.

Based on a shot in the dark on demand, if there were only 500+ of each, prices would be much much higher. I too think 3,000+, but possibly more closer 10,000 plus for commons.

I am not a T206 collector, but I am still hoarding these 20 or so common cards that collected about 20 years ago.

[Johnny T]

What I find amazing is that with all of these examples apparently available, not one collector has put together the entire set....EVER!!!

[RCFire82]

👆 Ever ?

[Pat R]

Originally Posted by Johnny T

What I find amazing is that with all of these examples apparently available, not one collector has put together the entire set....EVER!!!

If you are talking about 524 several people have done that. If you are talking about a current master set that would be impossible even if the person attempting it had unlimited funds to try it.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Johnny T

What I find amazing is that with all of these examples apparently available, not one collector has put together the entire set....EVER!!!

What are you considering an entire set, because there have been plenty in have seen and heard of. We just had a member break a full set with Wagner and Doyle.