Where is the market?...is a "crash" coming

[ejharrington]

I see no evidence at all that there is a bear market in anything that I collect. To the contrary, prices keep going up.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by ejharrington

I see no evidence at all that there is a bear market in anything that I collect. To the contrary, prices keep going up.

It certainly feels like the go-go days are still running on everything I want for my collection. Witness the solid bidding war I got into last night (and lost) on the PSA 9 Mays 1954 Stahl Meyer. I finally dropped out at $93k. (link: https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=162374)

On the other hand, the PSA 7 Mantle that sold last night went for $246K, here:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=160751

It looks like the exact same card went for $336K about 12 months ago:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=125688

So a drop of $90K over the last 12 months. Good for a ~27% decline. We can debate whether that's a crash, a correction, or just someone overpaid in December 2022. But for some things the prices seem to be coming down.

[bbcard1]

I could have gotten better deals on two of the three most expensive cards I bought this year by waiting...1953T Robinson, 1954 T Kaline, but probably not the 1948 L Musial. But I don't really feel bad about any of the purchases. All cards I had wanted for a while and now I have them.

[Cory]

From PWCC. Just came across this thought it was interesting -

https://www.pwccmarketplace.com/mark...&direction=asc

Had been hoping that there was a T206 500 index, or something similar, or even thought of creating one to just get an idea of what prices are doing/have done. This is broader, but it does have a handful of t206 cards included in the index.

[Peter_Spaeth]

No index started by Brent has ever gone down. Good to see we're WAY up since the pandemic peak if I am reading it right. To infinity and beyond!!

[todeen]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Just like the doomsday preppers say "the crash is coming". Get prepared now by selling all your cards and buying gold and silver the currency of the future. I have been predicting this crash for decades and someday I will be correct.

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

But WHAT will they accept as tolls on the roads? I don't That was ever discussed

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Right, as was posted here in recent memory, silver we be useful to pay gangs of farmers who take over the roads.

Originally Posted by G1911

Well I learned the roads will be manned by Indians who accept silver for passage in the water cooler section. Educational thread that was!

Originally Posted by butchie_t

And someone on the way to Canada would inevitably ask you what the futures of silver looked like. chortle.

I'm glad I could teach you all something. We all have our different conspiracies we hold to. I still believe that economic/political uncertainty lingers. Another Trump presidency would make 50% of the country go absolutely bonkers. While I am rooting for Nikki Haley, The Don is running laps around all the other competitors for GOP candidate.

Also, to answer the OP: It's hard to debate a downturn in cards for modern between November and February, which generally are the doldrums. Come March, modern cards will warm up again and people will forget the winter blues.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by todeen

I'm glad I could teach you all something. We all have our different conspiracies we hold to. I still believe that economic/political uncertainty lingers. Another Trump presidency would make 50% of the country go absolutely bonkers. While I am rooting for Nikki Haley, The Don is running laps around all the other competitors for GOP candidate.

Also, to answer the OP: It's hard to debate a downturn in cards for modern between November and February, which generally are the doldrums. Come March, modern cards will warm up again and people will forget the winter blues.

I think most of us believe there is political and economic uncertainty and that half the country goes ape when they hear evil orange man’s name. I fail to see how this means Native Americans become the muscle and adopt a silver based travel system, as did everyone else.

I am rooting for whichever candidate my favored propaganda mill or party tells me is the solution.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by todeen

I'm glad I could teach you all something. We all have our different conspiracies we hold to. I still believe that economic/political uncertainty lingers. Another Trump presidency would make 50% of the country go absolutely bonkers. While I am rooting for Nikki Haley, The Don is running laps around all the other competitors for GOP candidate.

Also, to answer the OP: It's hard to debate a downturn in cards for modern between November and February, which generally are the doldrums. Come March, modern cards will warm up again and people will forget the winter blues.

I had forgotten about your post. I have a sad hobby of binge watching reality TV because I find it as funny if not funnier than stand up. My latest was about preppers being scored on how ready they are. It was so beyond hilarious especially knowing there are people who actually take these silly shows seriously.

The card crash is near!!! Sell now and invest in toilet paper because unlike silver and gold it will be needed.

[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I had forgotten about your post. I have a sad hobby of binge watching reality TV because I find it as funny if not funnier than stand up. My latest was about preppers being scored on how ready they are. It was so beyond hilarious especially knowing there are people who actually take these silly shows seriously.

The card crash is near!!! Sell now and invest in toilet paper because unlike silver and gold it will be needed.

"depends"

Snort, I love squeezing that into a conversation about TP any time I can get the chance.

B.T.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Another way to look at specific key cards from the vintage market is to look at how many examples of each card that appeared in the just concluded REA auction. For example, I believe there was only 1 Ted Williams RC, meaning to me that at today's market value, this is not an attractive card to move with the assumption having to be that there will be more room for growth on that one in the future. Same can be said for the 51 Bowman Mantle and Mays rookies, of which I believe there were 3 of each in REA as compared to summer of 2021 where there were probably around 10 of each, if my memory is correct. Compare this to the dozen or more T206 Ty Cobbs in REA, meaning to me that this card has already peaked in value at this point, at least for the foreseeable future, and many are looking to sell now to take advantage of what might be a higher price as compared to a year from now. I believe there is some merit to this kind of stuff. Watch the upcoming major auctions and look for cards that are not being offered regularly. Those are probably the cards to buy right now while staying away from those that are being offered in multiples at the same time, whether in same or different auctions.

[griffon512]

Conclusions on pricing trends can't be drawn from one auction, but the results last night reinforce that grade continues to be less and less relevant over time to pricing. Premiums for strong centering/color/registration and discounts for poor centering/color/registration are increasing. There is scarcity of the former for many cards, even if the pop is high.

Some comparisons:
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161130

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161129

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=164229

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=164248

And a couple of other examples of premiums strong centering/color/registration is getting versus average comps:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161266

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=161953


There hasn't been any weakness in pricing for really nice examples of in-demand cards or sets. Those examples have been and will continue to be less sensitive to any market corrections that are inevitable over time, especially after huge runs.