1921 Herpolsheimers graded w/o mark

[ElCabron]

Brian,

I have done business with you for decades. I may have missed the name of the super honest dealer that convinced you these were fake 25 years ago, but I’m also on the bandwagon with every single other collector and dealer who are trying to tell you these are real. I am as skeptical as they come. If you don’t believe that, search my name on this forum. I would respectfully like to suggest to you that I am as honest as the guy from 25 years ago, and if you don’t believe I am, please do not bid in my auctions in the future.

You are wrong here. We are all wrong sometimes. At this point, you’re making yourself look bad. You’d be wise to simply admit it and move on.

I think everyone can appreciate where you’re coming from. Fakes should ALWAYS be called out as fakes. But once the evidence overwhelmingly shows the they’re real, you have to adjust and accept they’re real. I hope you’ll consider this.

[Brian Van Horn]

Originally Posted by ElCabron

Brian,

I have done business with you for decades. I may have missed the name of the super honest dealer that convinced you these were fake 25 years ago, but I’m also on the bandwagon with every single other collector and dealer who are trying to tell you these are real. I am as skeptical as they come. If you don’t believe that, search my name on this forum. I would respectfully like to suggest to you that I am as honest as the guy from 25 years ago, and if you don’t believe I am, please do not bid in my auctions in the future.

You are wrong here. We are all wrong sometimes. At this point, you’re making yourself look bad. You’d be wise to simply admit it and move on.

I think everyone can appreciate where you’re coming from. Fakes should ALWAYS be called out as fakes. But once the evidence overwhelmingly shows the they’re real, you have to adjust and accept they’re real. I hope you’ll consider this.

Ryan,

I know you're honest and I look forward to bidding in your future auctions.

Happy Holidays,

Brian

[RCMcKenzie]

Brian's questions prompted another collector to discover more information about the set, which is why debate is a good thing, not a bad thing.

It shows just how many cards were thrown away. How many sets did they order? 100? and parts of 2 sets made it.

[brianp-beme]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

Brian's questions prompted another collector to discover more information about the set, which is why debate is a good thing, not a bad thing.

I agree...because of this thread the vast majority of us know more about this set, and now we have convincing evidence on how these cards were distributed (those boy suits must have been butt ugly). To the logical mind knowledge is always a good thing. So thank you Brian for setting the wheels in motion.

Brian

[Brian Van Horn]

Thank you Aaron.

[Brian Van Horn]

Originally Posted by brianp-beme

I agree...because of this thread the vast majority of us know more about this set, and now we have convincing evidence on how these cards were distributed (those boy suits must have been butt ugly). To the logical mind knowledge is always a good thing. So thank you Brian for setting the wheels in motion.

Brian

Brian,

Now, in 2034 a boy's suit from Herpolsheimer's with a tag on the neck on the inside of the back identifying Herpolsheimer's will be found with, believe it or not, Herpolsheimer cards in the moth holed breast pocket. Amazingly, the cards, which will be of different levels of wear will be collectible. A miracle! To summarize the finding:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyp9fh-u4w8

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

These are all fake! I can prove it.

So my Great Grandfather was Arthur Slugworth. He owned a competing boys suit company around the corner on 6th and Racine called Slugworth Inc. He wanted to steal business away from Herpolsheimers and had those cards made without the address on the back. He placed the ads in the local papers and when customers came looking to buy a boys suit and get the cards he would pop out from behind the Herpolsheimer display and whisper in their ears to meet him around the corner at his Slugworth Inc. store. He successfully sold 133 boys suits in this way which led to the downfall and eventual bankruptcy of Herpolcheimers.

[Brian Van Horn]

Lol!

[G1911]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

Brian's questions prompted another collector to discover more information about the set, which is why debate is a good thing, not a bad thing.

It shows just how many cards were thrown away. How many sets did they order? 100? and parts of 2 sets made it.

I think we’ve learned survival rates for pre-war cards are incredibly low, I suspect well under 1% from the datasets. For example, using the printers record books and court testimony I have accounted for a minimum of 21,000,000 T225 series 1 cards printed. 25 subjects of equal printing = 840,000 of each produced, at least. I’d be surprised if there’s even 2,500 of each still around today. I’d project about 1 in 500 made it to 2023 for these. I’d think the 1920’s stuff wouldn’t be a lot better off, maybe a little.

[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by G1911

I think we’ve learned survival rates for pre-war cards are incredibly low, I suspect well under 1% from the datasets. For example, using the printers record books and court testimony I have accounted for a minimum of 21,000,000 T225 series 1 cards printed. 25 subjects of equal printing = 840,000 of each produced, at least. I’d be surprised if there’s even 2,500 of each still around today. I’d project about 1 in 500 made it to 2023 for these. I’d think the 1920’s stuff wouldn’t be a lot better off, maybe a little.

I think 1914 Cracker Jacks say 15 million were made and I think of those as difficult to find.

I was guessing 100 sets of 1921 Herpolsheimer because I thought they would hope to sell a suit a day for that Summer. It could be much higher like 500.

[autograf]

At this point, we are feeding the troll. Thanks again to Steve. Hasta la vista.......

[CW]

Brian, is this all just a ruse to prevent other bidders from bidding against you?

[RCMcKenzie]

I'm talking with Greg about 1921 Herpolsheimers card populations. BrianVH's theory has been debunked. I don't consider discussing this obscure set feeding a troll.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

I think 1914 Cracker Jacks say 15 million were made and I think of those as difficult to find.

I was guessing 100 sets of 1921 Herpolsheimer because I thought they would hope to sell a suit a day for that Summer. It could be much higher like 500.

I have no idea on how many Herpolsheimer sets would have been made, 100, 500, 1,0000.

Part of the problem is that the quantity known today is usually impossible to know outside of the sets so rare the hobby keeps perfect track of them; even if we had all production data for everything we'd be missing another of the 2 figures for most sets. And what the hobby knows and tracks is different from what survives as we keep finding cards that have not previously hit the market or hobby before (usually they are just T206's or something and not that exciting, but new to the hobby).

The surviving data on the T cards suggests to me a survival rate of somewhere between .1 and .4%. But even assuming this is all correct and my deductions perfect, it doesn't mean other card types survive at the same rate. Cracker Jacks could be vastly different because they were issued in a product more for kids, an audience to keep the cards, got their hands on or less because of the crappy thin stock. The 1914's mention the 15,000,000 figure but it's not quite clear that is the entirety of the print run. Other cards mention 10,000,000 as the print run, so it may have been a made-up claim to sound important in the first place. 15,000,000 would be 104,166.67 of each card printed. There's not more than, I don't know, 300-400 or so of each one today? That would put it in similar survival range.

With how Herpolsheimers were distributed, evidently entirely for kids, I would guess their survival rate would be a bit higher. For very rare sets though the luck factor of a stash surviving is far more significant.

[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by G1911

I have no idea on how many Herpolsheimer sets would have been made, 100, 500, 1,0000.

Part of the problem is that the quantity known today is usually impossible to know outside of the sets so rare the hobby keeps perfect track of them; even if we had all production data for everything we'd be missing another of the 2 figures for most sets. And what the hobby knows and tracks is different from what survives as we keep finding cards that have not previously hit the market or hobby before (usually they are just T206's or something and not that exciting, but new to the hobby).

The surviving data on the T cards suggests to me a survival rate of somewhere between .1 and .4%. But even assuming this is all correct and my deductions perfect, it doesn't mean other card types survive at the same rate. Cracker Jacks could be vastly different because they were issued in a product more for kids, an audience to keep the cards, got their hands on or less because of the crappy thin stock. The 1914's mention the 15,000,000 figure but it's not quite clear that is the entirety of the print run. Other cards mention 10,000,000 as the print run, so it may have been a made-up claim to sound important in the first place. 15,000,000 would be 104,166.67 of each card printed. There's not more than, I don't know, 300-400 or so of each one today? That would put it in similar survival range.

With how Herpolsheimers were distributed, evidently entirely for kids, I would guess their survival rate would be a bit higher. For very rare sets though the luck factor of a stash surviving is far more significant.

On the Herpolsheimer's, I think the ad that SteveD found convinces me that they gave them out with the suits, and these were circulated in Grand Rapids in 1921, but there may not be any more left to be found.