Poll: Final Hammer Price - 1914 BN Babe Ruth vs the 1952 Rosen Topps Mantle

[brunswickreeves]

Originally Posted by raulus

I'm not really convinced that the general cardboard market has an impact here. Does anyone really think that the bidders will set their max bid based on how the general cardboard market has been trending lately? I'm not seeing it.

This seems like a relatively straightforward competition. A crazy rare item, (arguably?) a rookie card, of the game's most well-known player. Get all the biggest fat cats from our world with virtually limitless resources together and they start bidding. It's anyone's guess when they will stop.

Given all of the advertising around this auction, it's not like a serious potential bidder is going to miss it. So it's really just a question of how high the last 2 bidders are willing to go, and when does the underbidder finally tap out?

The final price will likely boil down to psychology and how emboldened that underbidder is feeling at the moment. There are theories around here that crazy rich people are disciplined and not susceptible to the same sorts of emotions and passions as us commoners. But I would argue they're just as human as the rest of us. Trouble with the wife (or mistress), a drop in their company's stock price, a lawsuit that just took a turn for the worse, and the bidder is likely to be just a little less determined. But a few of them will go nuts because they decide they can't live without this piece. Since their bank account balance starts with a B, they won't be constrained by petty resource limitations like us mortals.

Personally, given how infrequently these come onto the market in any condition, I'm taking the over. I wouldn't be surprised if it hit $20M, and it might even blow that away.

This!

It’s a rounding error for the crazy rich with a MUCH steeper upside by acquiring. Imagine just 2 of the many Fortune 500 CEOs who wants this on display at their HQ or personal collection. Imagine the international investor or royal with endless capital. Imagine 1 of hundreds of PE firms clamoring for this. Imagine a loaded movie star with power and influence?

The question isn’t how much will this go for, but will this or a PSA 10 1952 Topps Mick be the first $100MM card we witness in our lifetimes?

[BobbyStrawberry]

An hour in and it's already at $4.5 million.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

An hour in and it's already at $4.5 million.

Before the juice, natch.

Bidding increments are at $250K? Won’t take long to get to $10M+…

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

This!

It’s a rounding error for the crazy rich with a MUCH steeper upside by acquiring. Imagine just 2 of the many Fortune 500 CEOs who wants this on display at their HQ or personal collection. Imagine the international investor or royal with endless capital. Imagine 1 of hundreds of PE firms clamoring for this. Imagine a loaded movie star with power and influence?

The question isn’t how much will this go for, but will this or a PSA 10 1952 Topps Mick be the first $100MM card we witness in our lifetimes?

The world has always had a lot of uber wealthy people but how many of them ever spend on baseball cards? Why would it happen now, on this card? Not the first Balto News Ruth by any stretch.

[brunswickreeves]

Fair enough, but not sure last time this was offered to the public, so with the recent crazy run up and proliferation of cards as an asset mindset, unlike Wagner T206 with 60+ copies typically offered 1 up annually, this Ruth is much more scarce and of a player with better public name id, so poised to smash records.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by brunswickreeves

Fair enough, but not sure last time this was offered to the public, so with the recent crazy run up and proliferation of cards as an asset mindset, unlike Wagner T206 with 60+ copies typically offered 1 up annually, this Ruth is much more scarce and of a player with better public name id, so poised to smash records.

Who knows, all speculation, but my speculation is that the uber wealthy outside the hobby are buying art and race horses and real estate and whatever and don't venture into sports collectibles and likely won't. I think the buyer of the Ruth will be within the hobby.

[nolemmings]

I know there have been times when we withhold bidding on cards we know one of our hobby friends is chasing. I hereby announce that this is one of those times, and I want my dear friends here to know that I will not be bidding on either the Mantle or Ruth cards, so you may bid away knowing that I am not running up your costs.

You're welcome.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Who knows, all speculation, but my speculation is that the uber wealthy outside the hobby are buying art and race horses and real estate and whatever and don't venture into sports collectibles and likely won't. I think the buyer of the Ruth will be within the hobby.

I share your suspicions.

My guess is that one of the fat cats that has a PSA 10 52T Mantle will decide they can’t live without this card and will go nuts.

Why now? They don’t come along every day. There are a few others, but you might have to wait a while for another to come along. And these buyers are probably not all that young. So they might not get too many more bites at this apple.

Also, $20M ain’t what it used to be.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

I share your suspicions.

My guess is that one of the fat cats that has a PSA 10 52T Mantle will decide they can’t live without this card and will go nuts.

Why now? They don’t come along every day. There are a few others, but you might have to wait a while for another to come along. And these buyers are probably not all that young. So they might not get too many more bites at this apple.

Also, $20M ain’t what it used to be.

Only three people have a PSA 10. Kendrick, not sure if he is still adding. Fogel, I would doubt it, he more likely is making plans to downsize. The third anonymous guy bought in 2001 so that purchase does not at all suggest he is that wealthy. He paid chump change, 250 or so I think.

[jsfriedm]

Kendrick almost won the World Series. He should be spending that money on Blake Snell or Juan Soto.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Only three people have a PSA 10. Kendrick, not sure if he is still adding. Fogel, I would doubt it, he more likely is making plans to downsize. The third anonymous guy bought in 2001 so that purchase does not at all suggest he is that wealthy. He paid chump change, 250 or so I think.

OK. So not those 3 guys specifically. But similarly-minded collectors who view themselves as being a big deal, and who happen to have more money than they can spend in this lifetime.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by raulus

I share your suspicions.

My guess is that one of the fat cats that has a PSA 10 52T Mantle will decide they can’t live without this card and will go nuts.

Why now? They don’t come along every day. There are a few others, but you might have to wait a while for another to come along. And these buyers are probably not all that young. So they might not get too many more bites at this apple.

Also, $20M ain’t what it used to be.

Just my hunch, but I think after this auction concludes, another of these cards is going to surface at an auction next spring.

[Jay Wolt]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Who knows, all speculation, but my speculation is that the uber wealthy outside the hobby are buying art and race horses and real estate and whatever and don't venture into sports collectibles and likely won't. I think the buyer of the Ruth will be within the hobby.

So you're saying that you are gonna make a play on it?
Cool, hope ya win it

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Jay Wolt

So you're saying that you are gonna make a play on it?
Cool, hope ya win it

When REA does a reprint I'll be all over it.

[G1911]

A reasonable person would think that SGC just blatantly juicing the grade on any marquee card they get would start to hurt them and their reputation, but as it's the card hobby this is a feature instead of a problem.

The Mantle was not a 9.5, and this ain't a 3. Really awesome cards, it doesn't get much cooler than this Ruth. I'm sure whoever the new owner ends up being won't care the slab they dropped $10M for is a lie.