Collectibles Markets vs Economy - Why does it have to be this way?

[packs]

Originally Posted by bnorth

That sounds like entitlement to me. That sounds like a great goal you need to work hard to achieve. In my 54 years of experience it was never an attainable benchmark for everyone.

I didn't mention anything about what I was doing to achieve my goal. Only that I had them and they don't seem outrageous or even that much different than society has ever had. However, they seem to be much harder to get.

The birthrate has fallen 23% in the last 15 years. The number of US households from 2010 to 2020 was the smallest gain in any decade between 1950 and 2010.

The idea that if you don't have what you want you aren't working hard enough is also outdated. This isn't a meritocracy and there's no such thing as working harder than everyone else to achieve more. I think it's much more likely that many people will work themselves to death and not gain very much in the process.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

I didn't mention anything about what I was doing to achieve my goal. Only that I had them and they don't see outrageous or even that much different than society has ever had. However, they seem to be much harder to get.

Do you not agree? the birthrate has fallen 23% in the last 15 years. The number of US households from 2010 to 2020 was the smallest gain in any decade between 1950 and 2010.

How old are you? I have seen this big jump in prices 3 times that I remember.

The birth rate has fallen because overall smart people are having way less kids. You don't see many doctors, lawyers, or other younger professionals with big families. Unfortunately if you go to the poor areas they are still breeding like rabbits. That is a major part of most problems.

[packs]

Originally Posted by bnorth

How old are you? I have seen this big jump in prices 3 times that I remember.

The birth rate has fallen because overall smart people are having way less kids. You don't see many doctors, lawyers, or other younger professionals with big families. Unfortunately if you go to the poor areas they are still breeding like rabbits. That is a major part of most problems.

I know people with big families and I know people with small families or no family, but none of them have mentioned their degrees when discussing why they had children or didn't.

People with good jobs are still finding it just as hard to buy a house or afford to live where they work:

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...s-18164328.php

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

What does overall smart people mean though? I know people with big families and I know people with small families or no family, but none of them have mentioned their degrees when discussing why they had children or didn't.

Google is your friend since the doctors, lawyers, and other professionals was not enough info. Yes I also know stupid people with no kids and very smart people with several. That does not change the overall picture.

[packs]

I was hoping you might expand on what you’re saying. Your opinion is that smart people aren’t having children but why? Is it because it’s prohibitively expensive and they recognize that? Or some other reason?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Google is your friend since the doctors, lawyers, and other professionals was not enough info. Yes I also know stupid people with no kids and very smart people with several. That does not change the overall picture.

What's Yiddish for "birth control"? Grad school My landsmann get it.

My wife and I decided to limit our kids to 1 because of the cost of raising them. We figured on her staying home and with one we could do that and give her everything we wanted for her, including grad school, but with more, she either had to work or it was three hots and cot and take some loans for college. Wasn't an appealing plan. My daughter ended up graduating an Ivy with an advanced degree and has an enviable first job (better beni's than I ever dreamed of...and free snacks and beer in their lounge).

[raulus]

Originally Posted by packs

I didn't mention anything about what I was doing to achieve my goal. Only that I had them and they don't seem outrageous or even that much different than society has ever had. However, they seem to be much harder to get.

Do you not agree? the birthrate has fallen 23% in the last 15 years. The number of US households from 2010 to 2020 was the smallest gain in any decade between 1950 and 2010.

The idea that if you don't have what you want you aren't working hard enough is also outdated. This isn't a meritocracy and there's no such thing as working harder than everyone else to achieve more. I think it's much more likely that many people will work themselves to death and not gain very much in the process.

Time to fire up the class wars and dig in a bit. With any luck, this will turn into a shouting match that devolves into ad hominem attacks and denials of our common humanity.

If you're struggling to acquire the necessities of life, then I'd recommend cutting back on buying cardboard.

If you're struggling to make important financial investments like buying a house or sending your kid to school, then I'd also recommend cutting back on buying cardboard.

I do think that the current home buying market is incredibly difficult, and I wouldn't want to buy a house in this market. If you're in the market to buy a house but find that it's not currently attainable, and if you want my advice, which isn't worth much, then my advice would be to continue to save for your down payment and wait for the right opportunity. Certainly that's what we did from 2002 to 2008 while living in the SF Bay Area, which was a crazy housing market in its own way. A lot of our friends took out stupid loans they couldn't afford simply because the bank would give it to them. We waited and saved, until the time was right to pull the trigger.

I also think that when it comes to education, not everyone needs to go to college. There are plenty of really great jobs in the trades to be had without a college degree. And if your kids do go to college, then make sure to be wise about that investment. Go to a school that doesn't cost an arm and a leg to attend. If necessary, then spend a year or two at a community college to accumulate GE credits. Whatever you do, study in a field that is marketable. If you're expecting everything to turn out peachy by dropping $70k per year on an expensive private school while studying in a field where you are unlikely to ever make more than $50k per year, then you should probably reevaluate your strategy.

I do think that in general, we have to be willing to work hard and sacrifice for the nicer things in life, including that house or that education. Usually that means being willing to make some important decisions about what we really want out of life, and what we can sacrifice today in order to achieve those goals.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I can tell you that we made a lot of sacrifices for a very long time to accomplish all of the things that you mention. I toiled long, long hours for over a decade to work my way up in my organization. Others bailed for an easier job and a quick bump to get 20% higher pay, while I stuck it out and kept my eye on the ultimate prize.

We lived in a 2-bedroom apartment with 3 kids so that we could save for a down payment on our house. I commuted 1.5 hours each way every day so that we could save on rent. We watched every penny, drove old beater cars, and denied ourselves a tremendous amount of potential stuff so that we could save for our kids' educations. Most of our peers around us were living the good life, buying everything they saw and going on fancy vacations, but we lived well beneath our means to save for the future.

To take it a step further, when we were ready to buy, we moved to a less expensive part of the country so that we could actually buy a house. Our kids are going to less expensive universities so that they don't have to take out gigantic student loans that will loom over them for decades to come like a veritable sword of Damocles. On that note, my son declined admittance to Stanford just last year, because spending $300k on an undergraduate degree didn't make much sense from a cost/benefit perspective.

I don't buy the doom and gloom and the talk that it's impossible to achieve our dreams. I do absolutely find that it is not easy, and requires a lot of work and sacrifices for an extended period of time that the average American is loath to actually undertake and really work in a dedicated fashion to accomplish.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by raulus

Time to fire up the class wars and dig in a bit. With any luck, this will turn into a shouting match that devolves into ad hominem attacks and denials of our common humanity.

If you're struggling to acquire the necessities of life, then I'd recommend cutting back on buying cardboard.

If you're struggling to make important financial investments like buying a house or sending your kid to school, then I'd also recommend cutting back on buying cardboard.

I do think that the current home buying market is incredibly difficult, and I wouldn't want to buy a house in this market. If you're in the market to buy a house but find that it's not currently attainable, and if you want my advice, which isn't worth much, then my advice would be to continue to save for your down payment and wait for the right opportunity. Certainly that's what we did from 2002 to 2008 while living in the SF Bay Area, which was a crazy housing market in its own way. A lot of our friends took out stupid loans they couldn't afford simply because the bank would give it to them. We waited and saved, until the time was right to pull the trigger.

I also think that when it comes to education, not everyone needs to go to college. There are plenty of really great jobs in the trades to be had without a college degree. And if your kids do go to college, then make sure to be wise about that investment. Go to a school that doesn't cost an arm and a leg to attend. If necessary, then spend a year or two at a community college to accumulate GE credits. Whatever you do, study in a field that is marketable. If you're expecting everything to turn out peachy by dropping $70k per year on an expensive private school while studying in a field where you are unlikely to ever make more than $50k per year, then you should probably reevaluate your strategy.

I do think that in general, we have to be willing to work hard and sacrifice for the nicer things in life, including that house or that education. Usually that means being willing to make some important decisions about what we really want out of life, and what we can sacrifice today in order to achieve those goals.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I can tell you that we made a lot of sacrifices for a very long time to accomplish all of the things that you mention. I toiled long, long hours for over a decade to work my way up in my organization. Others bailed for an easier job and a quick bump to get 20% higher pay, while I stuck it out and kept my eye on the ultimate prize.

We lived in a 2-bedroom apartment with 3 kids so that we could save for a down payment on our house. I commuted 1.5 hours each way every day so that we could save on rent. We watched every penny, drove old beater cars, and denied ourselves a tremendous amount of potential stuff so that we could save for our kids' educations. Most of our peers around us were living the good life, buying everything they saw and going on fancy vacations, but we lived well beneath our means to save for the future.

To take it a step further, when we were ready to buy, we moved to a less expensive part of the country so that we could actually buy a house. Our kids are going to less expensive universities so that they don't have to take out gigantic student loans that will loom over them for decades to come like a veritable sword of Damocles. On that note, my son declined admittance to Stanford just last year, because spending $300k on an undergraduate degree didn't make much sense from a cost/benefit perspective.

I don't buy the doom and gloom and the talk that it's impossible to achieve our dreams. I do absolutely find that it is not easy, and requires a lot of work and sacrifices for an extended period of time that the average American is loath to actually undertake and really work in a dedicated fashion to accomplish.

I sense we are at rather opposite ends of the spectrum politically, yet I find myself in near complete agreement with your post. Many Americans are magical thinkers: they believe money will find them rather than understanding that choices and sacrifices are still necessary components of life, even in the most prosperous nation the world has ever seen. I was very, very lucky in that respect. As a non-neurotypical person, I never understood or gave a darn about status, branding, rules of polite society, feelings (as many here can tell) etc. A car is transport, not a statement, so I buy good ones and drive them into the ground. A house is where you fart, not a showplace, so it has to be comfortable, not big, and not filled with crap I then have to buy, maintain, clean and insure. And so on. My wife shared my values, so it worked out great. We planned for my daughter's college and grad school (well, we got blindsided a bit when she wanted medical school, but she got over that after dealing with patients in a clinical setting as a volunteer; sick people suck), and we planned for our retirement and declines. We don't get the elaborate vacations: We spent that money for a long-term care policy, so we would not be broken by living expenses at the end of life.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I sense we are at rather opposite ends of the spectrum politically, yet I find myself in near complete agreement with your post.

Apologies if this is viewed as political...but

I would posit that it's theoretically impossible to be at the opposite end of the political spectrum from me. Because I'm about as middle as they come these days. Unless, of course, there's something that is the opposite of the middle!

I suppose that's a rather self-imposed identification, and you may beg to differ, but I'll cling to it anyway.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by raulus

Apologies if this is viewed as political...but

I would posit that it's theoretically impossible to be at the opposite end of the political spectrum from me. Because I'm about as middle as they come these days. Unless, of course, there's something that is the opposite of the middle!

I suppose that's a rather self-imposed identification, and you may beg to differ, but I'll cling to it anyway.

Oh, there certainly is....

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by raulus

Unless, of course, there's something that is the opposite of the middle!

A reactionary revolutionary?

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Apologies if this is viewed as political...but

I would posit that it's theoretically impossible to be at the opposite end of the political spectrum from me. Because I'm about as middle as they come these days. Unless, of course, there's something that is the opposite of the middle!

I suppose that's a rather self-imposed identification, and you may beg to differ, but I'll cling to it anyway.

I believe I am at the opposite end. Saying you are in the middle says you at least care. I can tell you the governor of the state I live in and the president. I cannot name a single other politician currently in any office/position. I don't have a clue who the vice president is nor do I care.

[Smarti5051]

Originally Posted by bnorth

I don't have a clue who the vice president is nor do I care.

In fairness, I think the current president might say the same thing.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

In fairness, I think the current president might say the same thing.

Ha! Now that's funny on a couple of levels.

[jingram058]

If you're struggling now to make ends meet, and you're less than 34 years old, and in good health, I recommend the service. Doesn't matter which one. If you simply do as you're told, and don't be a problem child, you'll advance steadily in rank, you and your family will have health care, and if you live within your means, you will most certainly save money. You will have your education paid for. If you choose to leave, you have the GI Bill, education and home loans guaranteed with no money down. If you stay, you can retire at 20 years with 50% your base pay. 2.5% for each year past 20 for a max of 75% at 30 years. Where are you ever going to find a retirement plan like that, realistically? If you stay, when you retire you have health care paid for the rest of your life, either TriCare or VA. You can use either one. You will be young enough to have a 2nd career, and employers will welcome you with open arms due to your acquired experience and skill. You will most certainly have the wherewithal to participate in "the hobby" or any other hobby, frankly, should you desire to do so.

I did 26 years in the Navy. I started out a boot E-1, seaman recruit, and wound up an O-4 Lieutenant Commander. I have a beautiful house with a pool in Florida. In the Navy I was able to acquire such things as a Babe Ruth signed ball (Gehrig and Cobb, too), a 1933 Goudey Ruth and Gehrig, lots of other good cards too, all kinds of working antique radios, and anything else I really ever truly wanted. I'm able to take trips and vacations whenever I feel like it. I use the VA for my health care; my wife uses TriCare. Our cars are paid for.

I found out early on that life is what you make it. If you're in an awful situation, one way to turn it around is in the service.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by jingram058

If you're struggling now to make ends meet, and you're less than 34 years old, and in good health, I recommend the service. Doesn't matter which one. If you simply do as you're told, and don't be a problem child, you'll advance steadily in rank, you and your family will have health care, and if you live within your means, you will most certainly save money. You will have your education paid for. If you choose to leave, you have the GI Bill, education and home loans guaranteed with no money down. If you stay, you can retire at 20 years with 50% your base pay. 2.5% for each year past 20 for a max of 75% at 30 years. Where are you ever going to find a retirement plan like that, realistically? If you stay, when you retire you have health care paid for the rest of your life, either TriCare or VA. You can use either one. You will be young enough to have a 2nd career, and employers will welcome you with open arms due to your acquired experience and skill. You will most certainly have the wherewithal to participate in "the hobby" or any other hobby, frankly, should you desire to do so.

I did 26 years in the Navy. I started out a boot E-1, seaman recruit, and wound up an O-4 Lieutenant Commander. I have a beautiful house with a pool in Florida. In the Navy I was able to acquire such things as a Babe Ruth signed ball (Gehrig and Cobb, too), a 1933 Goudey Ruth and Gehrig, lots of other good cards too, all kinds of working antique radios, and anything else I really ever truly wanted. I'm able to take trips and vacations whenever I feel like it. I use the VA for my health care; my wife uses TriCare. Our cars are paid for.

I found out early on that life is what you make it. If you're in an awful situation, one way to turn it around is in the service.

James, when are you going to open your own Naval Recruiting Station? Makes me want to enlist, but, hell, I already did that and served with the Naval Security Group (CT) for 3 years in Rota, Spain, which was a terrific duty station, then stayed with the Reserves for several years. Ended up as an E6, just missed CPO. As you know, it is the Chiefs who run the Navy.
You make a strong, valid case for considering a military career.

[G1911]

If you work a full time job, you should be able to afford a roof and to provide for your child. If you are willing to work there should be work for you. The fruits of your labor should primarily benefit your loved ones. Simplistic, but the goal usually is.

I have not seen a whole lot of correlation between hard work and incomes; in my experience it seems to have far more to do with politics (the corporate and personal kind). Laborers work harder than I ever have in my life, they don’t make as much. It’s an attractive notion I like, but it’s not really true. Some people work very hard and make a ton, some people work very hard and make nothing. Some barely work and rake it in.

The system doesn’t seem to be working all that well right now (measured against a goal, rather than measured against third world nations), we have completely failed a large number of our citizens who don’t even have a roof, we have people willing to work without work, we have a majority apparently living paycheck to paycheck or close to it. There’s not a lot of time (probably beyond the lifespan of some of the board, but not long in historical terms) before we have to have massive unemployment as a consequence of automation. What do we do when the work to live paradigm starts to end, as appears likely? I wish that was a subject of citizen discourse rather than some of the absurdities people are debating in the present instead.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Yoda

James, when are you going to open your own Naval Recruiting Station? Makes me want to enlist, but, hell, I already did that and served with the Naval Security Group (CT) for 3 years in Rota, Spain, which was a terrific duty station, then stayed with the Reserves for several years. Ended up as an E6, just missed CPO. As you know, it is the Chiefs who run the Navy.
You make a strong, valid case for considering a military career.

Wow, I was a Pacific Fleety for almost my entire Navy career, with the exception of Charleston, Key West and schools. So I missed out on Rota. Everyone I know who was there says it is awesome. Thanks for your service, sir! I was an Aerographer's Mate (AG, weather guesser) before I got commissioned. Yes, Chiefs do run the Navy! I made AGC while on board USS Independence CV-62. Sad to say she's razor blades now. Indy was a good ship.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by jingram058

Wow, I was a Pacific Fleety for almost my entire Navy career, with the exception of Charleston, Key West and schools. So I missed out on Rota. Everyone I know who was there says it is awesome. Thanks for your service, sir! I was an Aerographer's Mate (AG, weather guesser) before I got commissioned. Yes, Chiefs do run the Navy! I made AGC while on board USS Independence CV-62. Sad to say she's razor blades now. Indy was a good ship.

No, sir, thank you for your service, a lot longer than mine. Your rise through the ranks from E1 to O4 is a spectacular Navy success story. Well done. I knew quite a few Mustangs and none ever got higher than O3. And you proved that even a lowly squid can have a terrific vintage collection.

I hope you agree with me that Senator Tommy Tuberville should be tarred and feathered. John
P.S. What's tomorrow's forecast?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by jingram058

If you're struggling now to make ends meet, and you're less than 34 years old, and in good health, I recommend the service. Doesn't matter which one. If you simply do as you're told, and don't be a problem child, you'll advance steadily in rank, you and your family will have health care, and if you live within your means, you will most certainly save money. You will have your education paid for. If you choose to leave, you have the GI Bill, education and home loans guaranteed with no money down. If you stay, you can retire at 20 years with 50% your base pay. 2.5% for each year past 20 for a max of 75% at 30 years. Where are you ever going to find a retirement plan like that, realistically? If you stay, when you retire you have health care paid for the rest of your life, either TriCare or VA. You can use either one. You will be young enough to have a 2nd career, and employers will welcome you with open arms due to your acquired experience and skill. You will most certainly have the wherewithal to participate in "the hobby" or any other hobby, frankly, should you desire to do so.

I did 26 years in the Navy. I started out a boot E-1, seaman recruit, and wound up an O-4 Lieutenant Commander. I have a beautiful house with a pool in Florida. In the Navy I was able to acquire such things as a Babe Ruth signed ball (Gehrig and Cobb, too), a 1933 Goudey Ruth and Gehrig, lots of other good cards too, all kinds of working antique radios, and anything else I really ever truly wanted. I'm able to take trips and vacations whenever I feel like it. I use the VA for my health care; my wife uses TriCare. Our cars are paid for.

I found out early on that life is what you make it. If you're in an awful situation, one way to turn it around is in the service.

You could also die. I think this is a big part of why we struggle to grow the military.

Thank you for your service.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by Snowman

You could also die. I think this is a big part of why we struggle to grow the military.

Thank you for your service.

Yes, it can be dangerous. The flight deck is no place to be if you don't need to be there. Just one example. However, there are any number of dangerous jobs out here in "the world". There are any number of jobs in the military far less dangerous. And these jobs leave you with benefits and entitlements the civilian sector does not provide you.

[Johnny630]

Jerome has produced the soft landing....

Things are never is good as they seem and never as bad as them seem....

I'm blessed and thankful.

Things will work out :- ) I don't take collecting to seriously, it's a lot of fun and a learning experience.. Just have fun with the cards...

[bcbgcbrcb]

I have no college degree, 30 years of retail experience and a heart that operates at about 50% capacity. I would love to have $500-$700 monthly income coming in. Since 2017, I have collected a grand total of $1,200 from employment. That's in nearly 7 years!!! Maybe now, some here can see and begin to understand where I am coming from not only with the hobby these days but the U.S. economy in general. And, yeah, I know, there is always somebody else worse off than you are.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

I have no college degree, 30 years of retail experience and a heart that operates at about 50% capacity. I would love to have $500-$700 monthly income coming in. Since 2017, I have collected a grand total of $1,200 from employment. That's in nearly 7 years!!! Maybe now, some here can see and begin to understand where I am coming from not only with the hobby these days but the U.S. economy in general. And, yeah, I know, there is always somebody else worse off than you are.

Apologies if this is lacking in empathy, but I’m not sure I understand where the economy makes a big difference. I promise I’m not the world’s largest jerk, even if some may beg to differ based on this post.

But if inflation is 2% or 20%, it seems like you’re in an incredibly impossible situation either way.

[Vintagedeputy]

All I know is, I sure had more money in my pocket during the prior administration.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

All I know is, I sure had more money in my pocket during the prior administration.

Of course you did. They juiced the economy by borrowing from the future lol. But there's no such thing as a free lunch.

Also, this inflation was coming regardless of who would be sitting in the white house.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Of course you did. They juiced the economy by borrowing from the future lol. But there's no such thing as a free lunch.

Also, this inflation was coming regardless of who would be sitting in the white house.

yup!

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by Vintagedeputy

All I know is, I sure had more money in my pocket during the prior administration.

We all did Jim. We all did. Going green ain't cheap. Reminds me of when I try to eat healthy. The healthy food is SOOOOOOOO expensive. You wanna eat like s**t?!?! .99 cent double cheeseburgers. It's ridiculous.

[bobbyw8469]

Also, this inflation was coming regardless of who would be sitting in the white house.

No...it really wasn't. Let's just say that when you attack our energy sector and spend like a drunken sailor, bad things were bound to happen.

[Shoeless Moe]

Phil, I think possibly you bought too much during the peak, but I could be wrong, just a guess. I'm still making plenty in 2023 from memorabilia (Tickets, Programs, Baseballs, other vintage oddball items). "You gottta know when to hold 'em, know when the fold 'em." said a wiseman.....or was that Kenny Rogers? Ya had to know not to buy durng the peak. Prices were getting nutty, FOMO was a joke. I loved it. Bought me a truck.

Sold during the Peak, that was the key. And still selling.

and yes prices are down from the peak but they are still above before Covid.

You need to know when to use Ebay when to use an auction house, which auction houses do better at what. If you can be first, be first. Once an item hits the next one almost always go for less. Sold an item at Lelands for 4K, exact same item then sold at Hunt for $800, just a couple months later, could of been me, but my item was first.

So money still out there to be made in this game just gotta know how to play the game....one piece of advice, buy in the Fall sell when the new year hits. No one spends this time of year. It's the After National before Christmas Lull. But come January/February people start buying again. Want say even with Covid & the Peak this was the case, guessing /hoping it will be again come the new year. If not wait it out, or be strategic.